Making Early NFL Adjustments
The first quarter of the NFL regular season will be in the books to close out the month of September. Bettors have had three weeks of games to get a good glimpse of all 32 teams. Heading into Week 4, it is time to make some adjustments to your overall NFL betting strategy.
Some teams have lived up to expectations both good and bad. Some teams have overachieved and some teams were clearly overrated heading into the new season. There are now seven teams off to a successful 3-0 straight-up start. Teams such as New England, Kansas City, Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams are no big surprise. Green Bay appears to be back on track and San Francisco and Buffalo top the list as the biggest shockers.
The Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers and Rams deserve extra credit for the perfect 3-0 start against the point spread. These are the teams really banging the books given their overall popularity with the betting public. Honorable mention needs to go out to SU 2-1 Indianapolis which is 2-0-1 ATS.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are the teams still looking for that first SU win. Betting against Miami as become a very popular strategy after getting outscored 133-16 in its first three games. It is obvious that some of the biggest NFL spreads in recent history are justified.
Two teams that have been the biggest head scratchers so far are the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC. Both teams are off to SU 1-2 starts in games they were favored to win. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS with the Chargers going 0-2-1. Each team still has enough overall talent to turn things around, but you would have to add them both to the list of teams to go against heading into Week 4.
Injuries are always a big part of the early adjustment process. The Pittsburgh Steelers looked rather shaky in a Week 1 blowout loss to New England before losing veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the season. They are now 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) heading into next Monday night’s AFC North matchup against 0-3 Cincinnati. The good news in this one is that one of those teams will get its first win of the year.
The New Orleans Saints lost their quarterback Drew Brees for the first half of the season. However, they survived their first test by holding off Seattle 33-27 as five-point road underdogs. The Saints will be at home next Sunday night as three-point underdogs against Dallas. This will be a true test as to how good New Orleans really is without Brees under center.
The current storylines across the NFL also help facilitate the adjustment process for the early results. Head coaches are already on the hot seat and disgruntled players are making their feelings known through a social media platform. Injuries continue to take their toll for certain teams while bets come pouring in on New England’s chances to run the table all the way to victory in Super Bowl LIV.
It is still early enough where a few overreactions to the early results will cloud a bettor’s judgement. Every single game needs to be broken down on its own individual merits. Past success or failure does not guarantee that this trend will hold true in Week 4.
The Eagles face a major test on Thursday night in Green Bay. The Saints have that tough home game against Dallas. New England could face a stiff test in Buffalo as moderate 7.5-point favorites. Cleveland (1-2 SU and ATS) gets a chance to prove still belongs in the discussion for the AFC North title as 5.5-point road underdogs against Baltimore (2-1 SU and ATS). These are just a few of the top storylines turning the quarter pole of the 2019 NFL season.