2019 Camping World 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Chicagoland Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to a mile-and-a-half track this weekend with a visit to Chicagoland Speedway. The track will host Sunday’s Camping World 400, and while it will be the first and only trip to Chicagoland, it will already be the sixth race of the season at a 1.5-mile oval.
Coming into the year, everyone wondered if NASCAR’s new reduced-horsepower package would change the racing at tracks like Chicagoland. Aside from some tighter packs on restarts, the answer has been “no.” The big names from the big teams are still dominating the mile-and-a-half tracks, and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Your best bet for making some money is to bet on the big names to win Camping World 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.
2019 Camping World 400 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Chicagoland Speedway
The Favorites
Kyle Busch (3/1)
He already has four wins under his belt in 2019, and Busch now heads to a Chicagoland track where he went to victory lane last year. In addition to his win in last year’s race, he has led more than 20 laps in each of his last six starts here, leading 40-plus laps five times. Busch has been the best driver in the series this season, and he isn’t going to slow down at a track where he always seems to run up front.
Kevin Harvick (9/2)
You can be scared off by his lack of wins this year if you want, but I’ll trust the speed Harvick has shown at the 1.5-mile tracks. In fact, he leads all drivers in points scored and laps led in the five races at mile-and-a-half ovals, leading double-digit laps in four of those five starts. He also leads all drivers with five top-five finishes in the last eight races at Chicagoland, finishing third and leading more than 30 laps in both the 2017 and 2018 events.
Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
Fresh off a win at Sonoma, Truex finds himself tied for the series lead with four victories this season. Don’t be surprised if he adds to that win total this weekend at Chicagoland. Truex has finished fourth or better in three straight starts here, picking up a pair of wins. He also won the most recent race at a 1.5-mile oval, leading more than 100 laps in his victory at Charlotte. Truex is red hot and one of the best in the business at Chicagoland. Don’t overthink it.
Brad Keselowski (8/1)
Only one driver owns multiple wins at the mile-and-a-half tracks so far this year, and that driver is Keselowski. In addition to his two wins, he has led double-digit laps in four of the five races at 1.5-mile ovals in 2019. He has also been excellent at Chicagoland. Keselowski has reeled off eight straight top-10s at the track, winning twice and leading laps in seven of those starts.
Big Names to Avoid
Joey Logano (8/1)
Logano has certainly been solid at Chicagoland since joining Team Penske, and he has yet to finish worse than eighth in five starts here in the No. 22. On the flip side, he has led just two total laps in those five starts, and he only ranks seventh in laps led in the five races at 1.5-mile ovals in 2019. Yes, he’s been one of the most consistent drivers all year, but he has been just a notch below the top drivers at these intermediate ovals. The problem is that he is being given the same odds to win as many of these top options. I don’t see the value.
Kyle Larson (10/1)
He does have a great record at Chicagoland, posting a 7.0 average finish in five starts and finishing second in last year’s race. Unfortunately, Larson just hasn’t had the speed or the luck to contend much in 2019. Through the first 16 races, he has managed just a single top-five finish, and he has only led laps on three occasions. There is no way to justify betting on Larson at 10/1 this weekend.
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2019 Camping World 400 Odds at Chicago Speedway
Kyle Busch +300
Kevin Harvick +400
Martin Truex Jr. +550
Brad Keselowski +700
Joey Logano +800
Chase Elliott +1000
Kyle Larson +1100
Clint Bowyer +1600
Denny Hamlin +1600
Ryan Blaney +2000
Kurt Busch +2000
Erik Jones +2200
Aric Almirola +2800
Jimmie Johnson +3300
Alex Bowman +3300
Daniel Suarez +4000
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