2013 NBA Finals Game 5 Picks: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Odds and Predictions: Through the first four games of the 2013 NBA Finals, both the San Antonio Spurts and the Miami Heat have looked like the team to beat for the title. Fittingly, the series is tied 2-2 heading into Sunday night’s Game 5 in San Antonio with the defending champion Heat favored by 1 ½ points. To say that the game is crucial is an understatement. Not only do more than 70 percent of teams that win Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2 go on to win the series, but the loser of Sunday’s game will suddenly be facing the very real prospect of elimination the next time the team’s take the court. Call it a swing game, a turning point or whatever else you want, but the bottom line is that the winner of Game 5 has the inside track to winning the NBA championship.
The series has seen the best and the worst of the Heat thus far. With Dwyane Wade playing with one good knee and Chris Bosh’s confidence often missing in action, LeBron James has been a one-man show at times, reduced to launching up jump shots in a scene reminiscent of his Cleveland days. Other times, Miami’s speed and athleticism has shown through on both ends of the court in the form of highlight reel worthy dunks and blocks. However, James and company have been Jekyll and Hyde throughout the series, and game-to-game consistency has been nonexistent. If the Heat want to defend their title, that has to change. After all, Miami will have to win back-to-back games at some point if it is going to win the series.
Heading into the NBA Finals, many assumed that the play of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili would determine whether or not the Spurs dethroned Miami. Well, Parker has been excellent at times while Duncan has been solid, but Ginobili has been a nonfactor. Meanwhile, role players like Gary Neal and Danny Green have been shooting the lights out from 3-point range while Kawhi Leonard has been defending James as well as anyone has all year. With news that Parker’s hamstring strain could become a major issue with wrong cut or awkward step, the role players may be called on even more in Game 5 and beyond. San Antonio has been able to achieve longevity as a title contender thanks to an excellent core group as well as overall depth. San Antonio’s depth is definitely going to be put to the test in the remainder of this series.
The Heat Win If:
Is Game 4 going to be the new norm for Miami in this series, or will the Heat revert to the one-man show that dropped two of the first three games of the series? Plain and simple, Miami isn’t going to lose if James, Wade and Bosh are all chipping in 20-plus points, but those performances from the “Big 3” have been few and far between. Still, the Heat have to find a bit of a balance on offense if they plan on winning Game 5. Bosh has to be hitting a few of his mid-range jumpers in order to space the floor, and Wade has to attack the rim enough to prevent San Antonio for focusing solely on James and to collapse the defense and create some open perimeter looks for Allen and the other role players. On the defense end, Miami needs to play with the same intensity it showed throughout Game 4. If the Heat can swarm San Antonio’s perimeter shooter, create turnovers and make Parker and his iffy hamstring work hard to get into the lane, they can continue to disrupt the Spurs’ offense. At the end of the day, Miami can win Game 5 if it supports a somewhat balanced offensive attack with relentless defensive intensity.
The Spurs Win If:
If the Spurs are going to win Game 5, they have to keep turnovers to a minimum. San Antonio simply can’t afford to give away possessions, especially when a majority of the turnovers allow the Heat to get transition scoring opportunities and other quality looks from the field. Meanwhile, limiting turnovers also means more quality looks on their own offensive end, and shooting a high percentage allows San Antonio to set up its half-court defense. If the Spurs can force James and the rest of the Heat into taking mainly contested jumpers, the high-powered Miami offense can look downright ugly at times. Yes, San Antonio’s success is tied to Parker’s health to a degree, but overall, the Spurs can win Game 5 by controlling the pace of the game with a consistent, mistake-free offensive attack.
Bottom Line:
In what has been a series of surprising performances from unexpected sources and blowouts in favor of both sides, the one thing that has remained constant is the team with its back against the wall being able to win. The Heat had to win Game 2 after dropping the opener on their home court, and they did. The Spurs had to prove that the Heat weren’t going to run them out of the gym in Game 3, and they did that and then some. Miami couldn’t afford to fall behind in the series 3-1 and evened the series in Game 4. Now, the onus falls back on San Antonio since going to South Beach for two games down 3-2 is a death sentence. Even when a championship is at stake, there is no better motivator than desperation. Throw in the fact that both coaches have adjusted to losses brilliantly thus far and that the veteran starters for San Antonio have had an extra day to rest, and the Spurs are going to answer the call and retake the lead in this back-and-forth series.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs (+1 ½) Win Game 5
8:07 pm (ABC) NBA Championship Finals Game 5 – Best of Seven – 2-3-2. (Mia/SA 2 – 2)
Miami Heat Spread: -1½ Total: 188
San Antonio Spurs
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