2019 TicketGuardian 500 Picks & Predictions – ISM Raceway Value Bets: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads into race No. 2 of its West Coast swing this weekend with a trip to ISM Raceway. The one-mile, tri-oval is better known as Phoenix, and the lack of banking and varying corner layouts make it one of the more difficult tracks to pass at.
When passing is tough, track position becomes critical. When track position becomes this important, crew chiefs are going to do whatever they can to try to get it for their drivers. Off-cycle pit stops, two-tire stops and calls to stay out late in the race are common at Phoenix, and they have helped several drivers steal wins here over the years.
Phoenix isn’t a bad track to take a flier on a longshot, and the March race is even better because drivers and teams are still getting a feel for things. With that in mind, here is a closer look at some potential value bets and longshots for Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500. Also, check out my favorite value bets and sleepers on Sunday’s 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds.
2019 TicketGuardian 500 Picks & Predictions: ISM Raceway
Value Bets
Kurt Busch (30/1)
Does any driver change teams without missing a beat better than Busch? He made the move to Chip Ganassi Racing this offseason, and he rolls into Phoenix on the heels of back-to-back top-five finishes. Busch is a former winner at Phoenix, and he has six top-10s in the last 10 races here. He’s a great value at 30/1.
Ryan Blaney (30/1)
His results at Phoenix haven’t been pretty, but Blaney has had some fast cars. He’s started in the top five in three of the last four races here, leading laps in two of the last three. In fact, Blaney appeared to be in the mix for the win here last fall until suffering an engine issue. Blaney has had a car fast enough to win all three races so far this year. He just needs luck to fall his way. He looks like a potential steal at 30/1.
Alex Bowman (50/1)
It was back at Phoenix in the fall of 2016 that Bowman showed everyone that he deserved to be in a major ride in the Cup Series. Subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr., he sat on the pole, led 194 laps and finished sixth. Had it not been for a string of late cautions, he probably would have won that race. Bowman has opened 2019 with three straight top-15s, and flat tracks have become his strong suit. He could make a run at his first Cup win this weekend.
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Sleeper Specials
Ryan Newman (100/1)
While I didn’t expect to see Newman listed among the favorites, I am surprised to see him on the board as a 100/1 longshot. After all, he has finished 12th or better in eight of his last 10 starts at Phoenix, winning the March race in 2017 with some pit strategy in the final laps. Newman also finished 11th in both races here a year ago, so it’s not like he has been trending in the wrong direction. Newman is a safe bet to be close enough to the front to be able to be able to pull another strategy call Sunday. You can’t ask for much more at these odds.
William Byron (100/1)
He hasn’t had a breakout performance just yet, but after struggling at the 1.5-mile ovals as a rookie, Byron logged top-20s at Atlanta and Las Vegas the last two weeks. Now, he heads to a track where he did have some success last year. Byron led 15 laps and finished 12th in his Phoenix debut in March, and he came back in the fall and finished ninth. With Chad Knaus now calling the shots, you know he won’t be afraid to try to pull a strategy call to steal the win. Take a flier on Byron at 100/1.
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