2019 TicketGuardian 500 Odds & Predictions – ISM Raceway Betting Preview: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series continues its early-season West Coast swing this weekend when it pays a visit to ISM Raceway for the TicketGuardian 500. Formerly known as Phoenix, the low-banked, one-mile tri-oval challenges drivers with a two different sets of corners, and it challenges crew chiefs to find the right pit strategy to ensure that their drivers have the track position they need to win.
There aren’t too many tracks that compare to Phoenix, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that certain drivers just seem to excel here. As a result, this can be a good track to bet heavily on some of the frontrunners and pair those bets with a few bets on some sleepers in case pit strategy rules the day.
With that in mind, here is a closer look at the betting favorites I recommend backing in Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway.
2019 TicketGuardian 500 Odds & Predictions: ISM Raceway
Favorites to Bet
Kevin Harvick (9/4)
There is no such thing as a guarantee in the Cup Series, but few drivers have dominated any track like Harvick has dominated Phoenix. He is a nine-time winner here overall, and since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, he has five wins in 10 starts to go along with an unbelievable 2.7 average finish. Harvick has also led more than 100 laps per race during that span and hasn’t finished worse than sixth. He’s the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and win No. 10 at Phoenix could be on tap Sunday.
Kyle Busch (7/2)
One driver who has been trying to knock Harvick off his Phoenix thrown is Busch. He has seven straight finishes of seventh or better here, logging six top-five finishes in that span. More importantly, Busch has led more than 100 laps in three of the last four races here, finishing second here last March and winning the fall race. After Harvick, Busch is your best bet for a payout.
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Brad Keselowski (7/1)
He’s been a little more inconsistent than Harvick or Busch, but Keselowski has six top-10s in the last 10 races at Phoenix, including a runner-up performance last fall. He’s also been strong out of the gate in 2019, winning at Atlanta and coming within a car length of winning at Las Vegas last weekend. The momentum and solid history at Phoenix makes him appealing alternative to the heavy favorites.
Chase Elliott (10/1)
It’s been a quiet start to the year for Elliott, but that’s not unusual for him. Phoenix always seems to jumpstart his season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it do the same this weekend. Elliott has finished in the top 10 in four of his six starts here, and he has finished in the top three in two of the last three races. Elliott has also led double-digit laps in three of his last four Phoenix starts, leading more than 100 laps in March of 2017. At 10/1, he also offers a little more room for profit than the other frontrunners.
Bad Bets
Martin Truex Jr. (10/1)
Truex has been one of the stars of the Cup Series the last couple of years, but Phoenix just hasn’t been his best track. Yes, two of his three top-five finishes here have come in the last three races, but he has only led 11 combined laps here over his last 13 starts. After struggling just to lead laps here, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him suddenly end up in victory lane. At 10/1, I’m not willing to be on a sudden breakout at Phoenix from Truex.
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2019 TicketGuardian 500 Odds
2019 TicketGuardian 500 – Odds To Win @ ISM Raceway
Kevin Harvick +275
Kyle Busch +375
Brad Keselowski +750
Joey Logano +850
Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr +1100
Denny Hamlin +1600
Kyle Larson +1800
Aric Almirola +2200
Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +3000
Ryan Blaney +3300
Quin Houff +5000
Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5500
Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain +6600
Daniel Hemric, Paul Menard, William Byron +10000
Cody Ware, Corey LaJoie, Landon Cassill, Matt Tift +20000
Chris Buescher, Matt DiBenedetto +22500
Bayley Currey, Darrell Wallace Jr, David Ragan, Michael McDowell,
Ty Dillon +25000
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