2013 Toyota Owners 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : As the Cup Series heads to Richmond International Raceway this weekend, bettors have to be thinking about cashing in on a potential upset. After all, Richmond is one of three short tracks on the schedule, and the unexpected has been known to happen whenever 43 drivers are crammed on to a tiny track. From last lap wrecks that open the door for a surprise winner to multi-car accidents that eliminate a majority of the dominant cars, the bumping and banging that occurs can drastically change the outcome of the race. With that in mind, here is a look at a few drivers getting long odds this weekend that could be in position to capitalize on a wild night at Richmond Saturday.
Although he hasn’t won a race since 2009, it was still surprising to see Mark Martin only getting 33/1 odds to win this weekend. After all, his 10.5 average finish in the last 20 races at Richmond is the fifth best in the series. More importantly, he has seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts at the track, and he has been on a roll at the short track recently. Martin is riding a streak of three straight top-10s at RIR, and he has improved his finishing position in every start during the stretch. Coming off a third-place finish at the track last fall, it’s not hard to figure out where he will be finishing Saturday night if the trend happens to continue. Even if it doesn’t, Martin’s sustained success at the track should have him sitting in prime position to take advantage of any late race chaos.
His lone win at Richmond came early in his career, but Ryan Newman hasn’t exactly been struggling at the track. He has finished in the top 20 in 18 of his last 19 starts at the track and has finished in the top 15 in his last three starts. Newman also has 11 top-10 finishes during the stretch, and his 12.6 average finish ranks seventh among all drivers. Plain and simple, he is rock solid, steady performer at Richmond. He is almost guaranteed to be on the lead lap and in the top half of the field Saturday night, if not the top 10. Newman doesn’t win many races these days, but when he does, he usually lurks just outside the top five and pounces in the closing laps. Richmond is the type of track where Newman’s strategy will work to perfection, and as a 40/1 longshot to win this weekend, he is worth a look from bettors.
Driving for a single-car team like Furniture Row Racing comes with drawbacks, but Kurt Busch has shown on multiple occasions that he can hold his own every now and then. In fact, he has cracked the top five twice in 2013, and one of his top-five finishes came in a short track event. Busch has been a quality short track driver throughout his career, and he owns victories at all three short tracks on the schedule, including Richmond. His 66/1 odds to win Saturday have everything to do with the reliability issues of his equipment and next to nothing to do with his ability behind the wheel. At those odds, why not take a chance that his car will hold up for the duration of the event. If it does, Busch is more than capable of pulling off a surprise win.
When Phoenix Racing announced is driver lineup for this year, Ryan Truex was slated to drive this weekend at Richmond. However, a collarbone injury suffered by Truex will put A.J. Allmendinger behind the wheel, and the unexpected driver swap could benefit bettors in a big way. Allmendinger has finished in the top 20 in his last five starts at Richmond, logging three finishes of 11th or better during the stretch. Meanwhile, he has posted a respectable 13.3 average finish in three starts for Phoenix Racing in 2013. Granted, Allmendinger is a serious longshot, but at his current 100/1 odds, even a small wager can yield a huge payout. More importantly, bettors won’t find a driver with longer odds that has a history of producing quality results at Richmond.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Toyota Owners 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Toyota Owners 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 Toyota Owners 400
101 Kyle Busch +400
102 Denny Hamlin
103 Matt Kenseth +700
104 Jimmie Johnson +800
105 Brad Keselowski +900
106 Kasey Kahne +1000
107 Clint Bowyer +1000
109 Carl Edwards +1200
110 Jeff Gordon +1200
111 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
112 Kevin Harvick +1200
113 Tony Stewart +2000
114 Martin Truex Jr +2500
115 Greg Biffle +2500
116 Mark Martin +3000
117 Ryan Newman +5000
118 Joey Logano +5000
119 Ricky Stenhouse +5000
120 Field +1500
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