2019 Fiesta Bowl Picks and Predictions: LSU Tigers vs UCF Golden Knights

2019 Fiesta Bowl Picks and Predictions: LSU Tigers vs UCF Golden Knights: For the second year in a row, Central Florida will try to play the role of Cinderella against an opponent from the mighty SEC. The eighth-ranked Golden Knights (12-0) will try to complete a second straight undefeated season when they take on the 11th-ranked LSU Tigers (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl, but despite the perfect record, UCF is a 7.5-point underdog in this matchup.

The Knights have been humming along thanks to a balanced, potent offense that averages 44.2 points and 545.4 yards per game, but the leader of that offense, quarterback McKenzie Milton, was lost for the year with just a couple of games remaining. That being said, backup Darriel Mack Jr. has played well thus far, and running back Greg McCrae has stepped up, rushing 40 times for 387 yards and four scores in Milton’s absence.

LSU has once again been surviving on the strength of its defense. The Tigers are allowing 20.9 points per game, and that number would be even lower if not for the ridiculous 74-72, seven-overtime loss to Texas A&M to close the year. Even in losses to Florida and Alabama, the Tigers held both opponents below 30 points. As has been the case in recent years, the issue for LSU has been putting points on the board. The Tigers are averaging 31.8 points per game and under 400 yards of offense.

The Tigers Win If:

For the LSU Tigers to avoid the same fate the Auburn Tigers met last year, they need to take control of the line of scrimmage from the opening kickoff. Despite loads of talent, LSU’s offense isn’t scaring anyone, and a high-scoring, fast-paced shootout favors the UCF. The Tigers need to pound the ball on offense with their running game, wearing down the Golden Knights and keeping their own defense fresh at the same time. Quarterback Joe Burrow needs to be smart and efficient, making sure to avoid any mistakes that could lead to easy scores for the Golden Knights. UCF is better than it gets credit for, but the Golden Knights aren’t going to win a game of ugly, smash-mouth football against the Tigers.

The Golden Knights Win If:

UCF was able to win its final two games without Milton under center, but the Golden Knights cannot put themselves in an early hole like they did against Memphis in the AAC title game. LSU’s defense is stout, and the Golden Knights are going to be in serious trouble if they are forced to become one dimensional on offense while playing from behind. Defensively, the Golden Knights need to get off the field whenever they have the chance to avoid being bludgeoned into exhaustion by LSU’s power ground attack. For his part, Mack needs to be a playmaker for UCF, extending drives with his legs and creating big-play opportunities by keeping things alive. He’s the most important player for the Golden Knights in this one, and if he plays well, UCF will have a shot at the upset.

The Bottom Line:

A lot of focus has been on the injury to Milton, and while it is far from ideal for UCF to be missing its leader and best offensive player, it should be noted that LSU will be missing some key players to in the secondary, including likely top-10 pick Greedy Williams. Another factor that can’t be overlooked is that all the pressure will be on LSU in this one. UCF is playing with house money as they play the role of David to LSU’s Goliath, so expect to see plenty of trick plays and aggressive calls from the Golden Knights. In the end, I think UCF will be able to generate enough offense to avoid being punished physically, and I don’t think the Tigers have the offensive firepower to ever pull away. I’ll take UCF and the points.

Prediction: UCF Golden Knights (+7.5) Cover the Spread

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