UFC 130 Odds, Favorites, Free Picks and Expert Predictions – Rampage vs Hamill and Mir vs Nelson Preview:UFC 130 Heavyweight Bout Preview, Odds and Predictions
Travis Browne vs Stefan Struve
Travis Browne (10-0-1) started his career with ten wins in a row and nine of those coming by finishes. Of those nine finishes five have come within the first minute of the fight. This will be Brownes’ third fight in the octagon, his first ending by TKO in the first and the other a draw to UFC veteran Cheick Kongo. Browne has also held the Gladiator Challenge heavyweight championship and the Victory Fighting Championship belt.
The Skyscraper is a very applicable nickname for Stefan Struve (24-4) who stands 6’11’’. He made his debut back in 2005 when he was only 17 years old and won the fight via armbar. Struve has proven to be a very resilient fighter, fighting back from bad cuts and bad rounds. In his fight with Christian Morecraft he sustained heavy ground and pound for almost the entire first round. Struve survived and used Morecrafts’ aggressiveness against him knocking him out :22 into the second round. He has won both Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night.
This has the makings of Fight of the Night since both men like to get the better of their opponents on the feet and have knockout power. Normally Struve enjoys a significant height advantage in his fights but Browne is among the taller heavyweights as well standing 6’7’’. Struve is the underdog in this fight (+115) but this is a position he is use to. Browne (-145) is going to try to get inside and make quick work of Struve with one big punch much like Roy Nelson did to Struve back in March of 2010. Struve has shown he is scrappy and won’t go down easily and he also possess a very nice submission game. Bettors should go with the underdog in this fight since he is more well rounded and more experienced in the cage.
UFC 130 Brown vs Struve Prediction – Stefan Struve by way of TKO
UFC 130 Middleweight Bout Preview, Odds and Predictions
Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago
Brian Stann (10-3) was a former Infantry Officer in the United States Marine Corp and during his services was awarded the Silver Star. He started his fight career 6-0 and won the WEC light heavyweight title by knockout in March of 2008. After losing his title Stann came over to the UFC and has since dropped down a weight class to middleweight. In his last fight he became only the second man to defeat Chris Leben via strikes, the other is current middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
UFC 130 marks the return of Jorge Santiago (23-8) after being away from the organization since December of 2006. In that time Santiago has gone 11-1 and ten of his wins were by way of stoppages. He won the Sengoku 2008 Grandprix which earned him the middleweight championship belt. After two defenses of his title Santiago is set to come back to the octagon.
When making drops in weight classes it is normal to see a loss of power in punches but this is not the case for Stann. His TKO of Leben was a huge statement to the rest of the middleweight division that he is a major threat at 185. Santiago (+110) was let go by the UFC in 2006 after suffering two knockouts and bettors can expect this trend to continue. Stann (-140) has too much power for Santiago and this fight will end with Stann extending his win streak to three.
UFC 130 Stann vs Santiago Prediction – Stann by way of KO
UFC 130 Welterweight Bout Preview, Odds and Predictions
Rick Story vs Thiago “Pit Bull” Alves
Rick Story (12-3) entered the UFC in 2009 with a decision loss to John Hathaway. Since then Story has won five in a row and earned himself Fight of the Night and Submission of the Night by way of arm triangle choke against Brian Foster. Story utilizes great conditioning and an excellent scramble to grind fighters down which he has used to win six fights by decision.
Starting in 2006 Thiago “Pit Bull” Alves (23-6) went on a seven fight win streak that put him in line for a title shot with wins over notables like Matt Hughes, Karo Parisyan and Josh Koscheck. At UFC 100 he lost a lopsided decision to current pound-for-pound king Georges St-Pierre and was sidelined for over a year after that fight. His return fight wasn’t much better losing by decision to Jon Finch. Alves won a decision versus John Howard but he hasn’t been the ultra aggressive bully in the octagon that got him to that first title shot since his loss to GSP. Alves is going to be looking to return to that form against Story.
The main story line in this fight is whether we will see the Alves of 2006-2008 or the one that has lost two of three which have all gone to decision. Story (+160) is an excellent fighter who is riding a five fight win streak and confident in his abilities. If Alves (-200) doesn’t regain the swagger he once had this could be another fifteen minute back and forth fight. Fortunately for bettors they can count on Alves coming in hungry for a stoppage and looking to climb back in the title hunt.
UFC 130 Story vs Alves Prediction – Alves by way of KO
UFC 130 Heavyweight Bout Preview, Odds and Predictions
Roy “Big Country” Nelson vs Frank Mir
Season 10 winner of The Ultimate Fighter Roy Nelson (16-5) isn’t the typical looking fighter. Sporting a gut that takes up the majority of his 260 pounds it may be easy to overlook him as out of shape and not taking the sport seriously but this is far from the truth. Nelson is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie and has very heavy hands. He knocked out Stefan Struve in just :39 that earned him Knockout of the Night. His last fight was against one of the best heavyweights in the world Junior dos Santos which he lost by decision. Although he lost this number one contender match Nelson is looking to get back on the title track by beating a former title holder.
Frank Mir (14-5) is a former heavyweight and interim heavyweight champion that has some of the best jiu-jitsu seen at this weight class. Eight of his fourteen victories have come by way of submission including an armbar that broke Tim Silvia’s forearm. Mir has evolved his standup to the point where he is no longer just a threat on the ground. His TKO of Antonio Nogueira marked the first time the Brazilian had ever been stopped in a fight.
Mir has had a very up and down last few years. He has split his last four fights at 2-2 and lost the two times that the heavyweight title was on the line. Mir always seems a good win away from a shot at the title and that is going to be a heavy motivator for Nelson to come out and finish him. Nelson (+105) has an excellent top game and heavy hands to keep people honest. Mir (-135) on the other hand has developed a very smooth and crisp boxing game and can tap anyone from the bottom. Nelson has looked good in his last few fights but it’s not going to be enough to stop Mir from beating him up on the feet.
UFC 130 Nelson vs Mir Prediction – Mir by way of unanimous decision
UFC 130 Light Heavyweight Bout Preview, Odds and Predictions
Matt Hamill vs Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
Matt Hamill (11-2) started his UFC career with the show The Ultimate Fighter back in 2006. He has won two Fight of the Night awards and Knockout of the Night with a vicious head kick delivered to Mark Munoz in March of 2009. Hamill is most comfortable on the ground proven by being a three time NCAA Division III National Champion in wrestling. His standup game is unrefined but heavy hands and a granite chin make up for his lack of technique. Hamill is riding a five fight win streak but one of those came by way of a DQ for Jon Jones by using illegal 12-to-6 downward elbows. It was a fight that if it had continued Hamill was most likely going to lose.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (31-8) was one of the most hyped fighters that came over from the acquisition of Pride by the UFC. He proved he deserved it when he defeated one of the most dominant champions ever Chuck Liddell in only his second UFC appearance. Jackson brings an intimidating attitude to the octagon and shows it in his brutal punching and powerful wrestling. He has one of the most famous knockouts ever where he picked up Ricardo Arona while in a triangle choke and slammed him unconscious. Recently Jackson has filmed a movie and, among other outside distractions, questions have arose of his dedication to the sport. Defeating Lyoto Machida have quieted those questions but he’s going to look to put them permanently to rest with Matt Hamill.
With no disrespect to Matt Hamill (+220) this is a step down in competition for Jackson. Lyoto brings many more problems to the table and Jackson was able to answer most of them. The only thing that is going to stop Jackson (-300) from winning this fight is himself. If he comes into this fight with a good camp under his belt and in excellent shape Hamill doesn’t offer up anything that he can’t handle. Jackson is more experienced, hits harder and has good enough wrestling to neutralize Hamill’s. Bettors can feel comfortable backing Jackson in this bout.
UFC 130 Hamill vs Rampage Prediction – Jackson by way of KO
UFC 130 Odds from JustBET Sportsbook
Rampage Jackson vs Matt Hamill
Rampage Jackson -300
Matt Hamill +250
Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson
Frank Mir -130
Roy Nelson +110
Stefan Struve vs Travis Browne
Stefan Struve +120
Travis Browne -140
Brian Stann vs Jorge Santiago
Brian Stann -135
Jorge Santiago +115
Thiago Alves vs Rick Story
Thiago Alves -210
Rick Story +175
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