It is hard to believe that the first eight weeks of the 2019 NFL regular season are already in the books. A few teams have played right to expectations while there have been some stunning surprises along the way (both good and bad).
As a sports bettor, this is the time of the season when you have to assess your first half performance. These are the top three questions you should be asking yourself:
- Is your overall winning percentage above .500?
- Is your overall NFL betting bankroll still in the black?
- Is your overall NFL betting strategy delivering your expected results?
Unfortunately, too many recreational bettors are going to go 0-for-3 with a No answer for each question. The NFL remains the toughest betting sport given just how sharp each week’s betting lines can be. The online sportsbooks also know how to play the game by teasing those lines as each week wears on.
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The online sportsbooks have been raking it in all season long in the NFL with the early lean towards Underdogs and the UNDER. The cumulative betting trends through the first eight weeks of NFL games have favorites only winning 63.3 percent of the time straight-up. Underdogs have a winning rate of 58 percent against the spread. The best bet has been road underdogs ATS with a winning rate of 64.2 percent. The total has stayed UNDER in 54.6 percent of the games.
General betting trends make for good conversation, but successfully betting the games comes down to handicapping techniques for the actual games. By now, we have a very clear picture for all 32 teams. Some have been extremely unreliable bets, like the inconsistent Philadelphia Eagles at 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS. Some have been extremely predictable such as the New York Jets at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
How to Bet On Sports – Reduced Juice on NFL Total Lines
New England (8-0) in the AFC and surprising San Francisco (7-0) in the NFC are the only two SU undefeated teams. The Patriots have also been a good betting team at 6-2 ATS with the 49ers producing a solid return at 5-2 ATS in their first seven games.
The most basic betting strategy recommends riding a hot team until it cools. The online sportsbooks are well aware of this tendency, so look for betting lines to slightly favor teams New England will be going up against in the next few weeks. The Patriots are 3.5-point road favorites against Baltimore in Week 9. Following a bye, they will play Philadelphia on the road and Dallas at home in their next two games. This could actually be a good time to fade the defending Super Bowl champs.
The 49ers appear to be legitimate contenders in the stacked NFC, but with Seattle, Green Bay, Baltimore and New Orleans on the near horizon, it could be a good time to start going against this team as well.
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Parity is alive and well in the NFL. With the exception of teams such as the Jets, Miami and the Washington Redskins, underdogs have been attractive bets this season. Another solid bet for the second half of the season could be underperforming teams.
The Los Angeles Rams were favored to once again win the NFC this season. A less than optimal 5-3 SU start have them in third place in the NFC West. The Rams are a profitable 6-2 ATS and possibly poised for a big second half run.
You also have a pair of solid betting teams in the NFC that appear to be on a mission. The New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers are each 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS through the first half of their schedule. Each team is also trying to erase disappointing results over the past few seasons. The Saints, in the playoffs and the Packers, with losing records should keep playing like they have something to prove.