Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick
Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the San Francisco 49ers are not able to play games at their home at Levi’s Stadium. So, for the next two weeks, they’ll host games at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., instead. If that sounds familiar, it’s the home field for San Francisco’s NFC West rival, the Arizona Cardinals.
The Buffalo Bills return to the site of their Nov. 15 32-30 loss to the Cardinals to face the Niners. The 8-3 Bills lead the AFC East by a game over the Miami Dolphins. They’re coming off a 27-17 win over the Chargers, overcoming three turnovers to gain the victory.
San Francisco beat the other Los Angeles team, staying alive for the playoffs with a 23-20 win last week. The 49ers committed three turnovers but took it away four times and won with a last-second field goal. It was the biggest upset of Week 12, with the 49ers being 6.5-point underdogs to the Rams.
In what is actually a neutral site game, the Bills are three-point favorites. The over/under is a fairly conservative 48 points. This is a number bettors looking for expert sports picks will look hard at.
The Bills are 6-5 against the spread but 7-3-1 on the over/under for the season. San Francisco is 6-5 both against the spread and the over/under. Collectively, the two teams’ games are totaling an average of just under 50 points.
The Bills rely heavily on the passing of quarterback Josh Allen, ranked seventh in the league through the air. Their running game is rated 21st at barely 100 yards a contest.
Many games are decided by matchups, and this one appears to favor the 49ers. San Francisco has the sixth-best defense in the league, rated fourth against the pass. Allen has struggled at times this season, failing to reach 200 yards passing in three games.
The Niners haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut, ranking 14th in the NFL in total offense. The win over the Rams ended a three-game losing streak, but all of them came against probable playoff teams. The game against the Bills will be San Francisco’s fifth straight game against teams with winning records.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are well below average at 21st in the league. In their three losses, they’ve given up an average of 33 points and scored an average of just 21. If the 49ers can stifle Buffalo’s offense, they have a great opportunity to pull off the win.
A big problem for San Francisco has been turnovers. They’ve committed 20 on the season, 29th in the league. They’ll need to take care of the ball to reward their defense for solid play.
Buffalo will need to step up on defense, especially if it’s offense gets bogged down. The Niners will need to limit turnovers and take advantage of a mediocre Bills defensive unit. This just looks like a favorable matchup for San Francisco.
The Niners are used to tough competition, and the Bills are vulnerable.
We recommend taking San Francisco to cover and go with the under, but just barely.
San Francisco 24, Buffalo 23.
We were let down by Baltimore our last time out, check out our Ravens at Patriots betting pick.
Do you need more picks for this week? Go check out 2020 NFL Week 13 best bets.