Betting Against the NFL Consensus
From the minute they lost Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots were set as favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl. However, three games into the season, they already trail Miami by two games in the AFC East at 1-2 both SU and ATS with back-to-back losses to Jacksonville on the road and Detroit at home closing as favorites.
The bookmakers know that the public betting consensus will continually lean towards favorites, especially when betting on a high-profile teams such as New England. While this is not the case with every game, you can start to get a feel for which NFL team’s bandwagons are standing room only by the betting consensus numbers that are routinely posted at any number of sports betting sites leading up to that week’s games.
Some sports betting information sites will post two sets on betting consensus percentages for NFL games. The first is the betting public, which is made up of recreational sports bettors placing the early wagers on the games. The second is a consensus of sports betting experts such as professional handicappers or professional gamblers that bet on games for a living.
Sometimes the percentages between the two will mirror one another and sometimes they do not. There are any number of NFL games where the bookies clean up on the betting public only to give most of money back to the sharps who bet the same game the other way.
Betting against the general public consensus is an actual strategy that you can employ when placing your own personal NFL bets. This is not a hard and fast strategy that can be used on a regular basis. Rather it should be thought of as a guide to be employed when the right conditions fall into place.
One of the biggest reasons to go against the general betting consensus is the inherent value in the actual betting lines. The books already know which way the public is going to bet a game. They are either going to go with the high-profile favorite giving points or the latest, greatest underdog getting points. To sway some action the other way, the books will adjust the betting line accordingly. By going against the public, you are benefitting from that added value built into the numbers.
There is still no substitution for doing your homework when it comes to breaking down any matchup. Your bets should be based on which team you have winning the game SU. If it makes sense to lay the points, then go with the favorite. If believe the best value still lies with the underdog, then take the points and bet the game that way. If you have a high level of confidence in an underdog winning a game SU, then use the better value in the moneyline odds to bet that game.
How to Bet On Sports – Betting NFL Alternative Lines
The bottom line with sports betting, especially in the NFL, is that the general betting consensus is wrong more times than they are right. Even the top sports handicappers in the nation are shooting for a winning percentage of 60 percent or higher. The average recreational better is lucky if they get anywhere close to 50 percent.