2014 NFL Playoff Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Odds and Predictions – NFC Divisional Round Picks 1/12/2014: Two of the best defenses in the NFL will clash when the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) face the Carolina Panthers (12-4) in the NFC Division Round Sunday afternoon. The 49ers enter the matchup on the heels of a 23-20 victory over the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field last weekend that ran their current winning streak to seven games. Carolina on the other hand won 11 of its final 12 regular season games to secure a first-round bye. Sunday’s game will be a rematch of a Week 10 meeting that the Panthers won 10-9 in San Francisco. That being said, the 49ers are 1-point favorites in the rematch.
The recipe for success for San Francisco has been a strong running game and an even stronger defense. Running back Frank Gore has been a workhorse and dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick has provided big plays with his legs for an offense that ranks third in rushing and 11th in scoring. The 49ers’ offense has become even more dynamic recently with the return of receiver Michael Crabtree. Defensively, San Francisco ranks fifth in terms of yards allowed and third in points allowed. The unit is solid across the board, ranking seventh against the pass and fourth against the run. Overall, San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in turnover differential.
Carolina’s emergence as one of the top teams in the NFL has been fueled by an excellent defense. During the regular season, the Panthers allowed the second-fewest yards and second-fewest points in the NFL while leading the league with 60.0 sacks. Linebacker Luke Kuechly is the star of a unit that also ranks second against the run and sixth against the pass. Offensively, Carolina has been very one dimensional, ranking 11th in running but 29th in passing. DeAngelo Williams has been the primary running back for the Panthers, but quarterback Cam Newton is the team’s top offensive weapon. During the regular season, he threw for 24 touchdowns and ran for six more while finishing second on the team with almost 600 rushing yards.
The 49ers Win If:
If the 49ers are going to win the game, they have to do a much better job protecting Kaepernick than they did in the first meeting with the Panthers in order to establish some balance on offense and make Carolina at least respect their passing game. San Francisco has a great ground attack, but they aren’t going to be able to simply line up and run on every down and score points against Carolina. Defensively, San Francisco has to slow down Carolina’s running game, containing Newton in the pocket and forcing him to have to throw the ball to his mediocre receiving corps in order to score points.
The Panthers Win If:
For the Panthers to knock off the 49ers again, they need another dominating performance from their pass rush in order to take away any explosive plays from the San Francisco offense. If Kaepernick doesn’t have time to make throws down the field and isn’t able to escape the pocket for big plays with his legs, the 49ers’ offense becomes very predictable and easy to defend. Offensively, Carolina has to play mistake-free football to avoid giving San Francisco any easy scoring chances. The Panthers also need a few big plays from Newton, and they must cash in on any scoring chances that do present themselves.
Bottom Line:
It is hard to pick against Carolina in this game. After all, the Panthers went into San Francisco in Week 10 and beat the 49ers, holding Kaepernick to 91 yards passing and sacking him six times. However, Crabtree returned a few weeks later, and the 49ers haven’t lost since. In the six games Crabtree has been back, San Francisco is averaging 25.8 points and also managed to knock off Seattle during the stretch. In a game that figures to be hard hitting and low scoring, the addition of a weapon like Crabtree to San Francisco’s offense is going to have a huge impact. Newton and Kaepernick are both going to make some big plays, but Crabtree is the only true No. 1 receiver option on other side. Both defenses are excellent, but at full strength, the 49ers are a better offensive team and will score enough points to win a tight one.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-1) Cover the Spread
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