2013 NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/30/2013

2013 NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/30/2013: Two of the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams will go head to head on Monday Night Football when the Miami Dolphins (3-0) travel to the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (3-0). Both teams are much improved compared to last season, and while Miami’s sudden success can be attributed to a wave of free agent signings this offseason, the Saints’ resurgence can be tied to the return of suspended coach Sean Payton. As a result, both appear to be among the better teams in the NFL in 2013, and Monday’s matchup is an opportunity for one team to get a statement victory. Playing at home, New Orleans is a 5 ½-point favorite.

It appears that Miami may have found itself a franchise quarterback as Ryan Tannehill has looked strong in his second year in the league despite little help from one of the worst rushing attack. He has the Dolphins’ passing attack ranked 14th in the NFL, and in addition to completing almost 67 percent of his throws, Tannehill has displayed a knack for big throws late in games. Receivers Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace have both had their moments, and tight end Charles Clay has stepped up nicely after Dustin Keller was lost for the year in the preseason. On the defensive side of the ball, Miami is allowing just 17.7 points per game. A defensive front led by Randy Starks and Cameron Wake is the heart of a unit that has allowed some yardage at times but has been solid on the scoreboard.

For the Saints, everything continues to revolve around star QB Drew Brees. The New Orleans’ passing attack currently ranks third in the NFL, and with tight end Jimmy Graham, receiver Marques Colston and running back Darren Sproles among the weapons Brees has at his disposal, the unit is a scoring juggernaut even without a steady running game. Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense has surprisingly been carrying its weight in 2013 after being one of the worst units in the league last year. The hiring of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan appears to be paying dividends, and a much-maligned secondary is currently allowing the second-fewest passing yards.

The Dolphins Win If:

If Miami is going to pull off the upset, the defense has to keep the score manageable. A big game from Wake and the rest of the Dolphins’ defensive front when it comes to pressuring Brees will go a long way to making that goal a reality. On the offensive side of the ball, Tannehill can’t get caught up with trying to outduel Brees and start turning the ball over. The last thing Miami needs is for the Saints to have a short field to work with. If the Dolphins can make New Orleans earn its point on long drives while the Miami offense plays smart and finishes off scoring drives when it gets the chance, the Dolphins should be within striking distance most of the night. From there, Tannehill should have a shot to continue his late-game magic.

The Saints Win If:

A fast start on offense will go a long way to helping the Saints run away with this game. As well as Tannehill has played, the Dolphins have yet to trail by enough points this year to have to severely alter their strategy. If New Orleans starts putting touchdowns on the board early, Tannehill will have to leave his comfort zone and start taking chances to try to keep Miami in the game. If the game is close, the Saints need to dare a struggling Miami ground game to beat them and make life as difficult as possible for Tannehill. In the end, New Orleans should have no trouble winning if Tannehill has to try to top Brees in a high-scoring shootout.

Bottom Line:

The Dolphins deserve a ton of credit for their fast start, but going into the Superdome and knocking off the Saints is going to be a tall order. The already-potent New Orleans offense is even better indoors, and while Miami has been solid against the run, the secondary has been allowing more than 260 yards per game. Needless to say, a suspect secondary is bad news when Brees is going to be under center for the opposition. Perhaps more importantly, the resurgent Saints’ defense has been excellent at stopping the pass, and the Dolphins haven’t been able to generate any type of a sustained rushing attack all season. Tannehill has been clutch this year, but he doesn’t have the weapons or experience to outduel Brees and company in the Superdome on Monday Night Football.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-5 ½) Cover the Spread

Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints
Line: New Orleans -6.5
Total: Over/Under 48.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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