2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at ISM Raceway: Just two races remain in the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, and a return trip to ISM Raceway (Phoenix) is the penultimate stop on the schedule. Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacations 500 is also the final race of the Round of 8 of the playoffs, so you can expect plenty of intensity as six drivers battle for the two remaining spots in the championship finale at Homestead.
As for Phoenix, the low-banked, one-mile oval produces some of the craziest restarts in the series, and it is common to see drivers dip of the racing surface on to the apron to try to complete passes. Passing is tough in general at the track, so pit strategy will also play a role.
In general, big names have been able to dominate at Phoenix, especially in the fall race, but a savvy call on pit road and a well-time caution could allow someone to try to steal the win. Still, I expect the playoff contenders to show up ready to win Sunday, and I recommend investing heavily in the favorites for the Bluegreen Vacations 500 at ISM Raceway.
2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at ISM Raceway
The Favorites
Kyle Busch (3/1)
It has been a while, at least by his standards, since Busch has won a race, but he has been absolutely dominant at Phoenix lately. He will be going for his third straight win at the track this weekend, and he has led more than 100 laps in four of the last five races here. Busch has cracked the top 10 in eight straight starts at Phoenix, picking up seven top-five finishes during the stretch. In fact, he has finished third or better in five of his last six starts.
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
Truex has never won at Phoenix, but he has definitely been inching closer. He has three top-five finishes in his last four starts at the track, including a runner-up effort in the March race earlier this year. Truex has been enjoying a ton of success at flatter tracks in general this year, and he has already notched his first career victories at Richmond and Martinsville in 2019. Don’t be surprised if he adds Phoenix to the list this weekend.
Kevin Harvick (5/1)
Fresh off his fourth win of 2019, Harvick heads to his best track on the schedule. He is the all-time leader with nine wins at Phoenix, and five of those wins have come since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, including a victory in the spring race last season. In fact, he has never finished outside the top 10 in 11 starts here with SHR, compiling an incredible 3.27 average finish and leading more than 100 laps five times.
Chase Elliott (8/1)
He had to win this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive, and Elliott has already come close to winning at Phoenix on several occasions. He has finished third or better in two of his seven starts here, and he has posted a driver rating of more than 100 in six of those races. Elliott was battling for the lead late in last year’s fall race before being wrecked, and he led 106 laps in the spring race in 2017 before having issues on pit road. The bottom line is that he always seems to have race-winning speed at Phoenix, and it’s only a matter of time before he seals the deal.
Bad Bets
Joey Logano (25/1)
Logano won at Phoenix in the fall of 2016, but since then, he has managed just a single top-10 finish in five starts at the track, finishing outside the top 15 three times in that span. He also has jus two top-five finishes in the last 17 races this year, and while he has remained a steady top-10 threat, the elite speed just hasn’t been there. Consistency could make him a two-time champion before all is said and done, but it won’t help you get paid this weekend at Phoenix.
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2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +250
Kyle Busch #18 +300
Kevin Harvick #4 +350
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +600
Chase Elliott #9 +700
Joey Logano #22 +900
Kyle Larson #42 +1500
Ryan Blaney #12 +1500
Brad Keselowski #2 +2200
Erik Jones #20 +2600
Clint Bowyer #14 +3500
Kurt Busch #1 +3500
Aric Almirola #10 +4400
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +5500
Alex Bowman #88 +6600
William Byron #24 +6600
Jimmie Johnson #48 +8000
Daniel Suarez #41 +8800
Ryan Newman #6 +20000
Austin Dillon #3 +25000
Paul Menard #21 +27500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +27500
Chris Buescher #37 +40000
Daniel Hemric #8 +50000
Landon Cassill #00 +50000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +150000
Ryan Preece #47 +150000
Michael McDowell #34 +200000
David Ragan #38 +250000
John H. Nemechek #36 +250000
Joe Nemechek #27 +400000
BJ McLeod #51 +500000
Bayley Currey #52 +500000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
JJ Yeley #53 +500000
Joey Gase #66 +500000
Reed Sorenson #77 +500000
Ross Chastain #15 +500000