2014 Duck Commander 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid

2014 Duck Commander 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series rolls on this weekend with a trip to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Duck Commander 500. The 1.5-mile oval is one of the fastest tracks on the schedule, and last year, drivers qualified at speeds that averaged more than 196 mph. While the track has been kind to the big names in the series in recent years, unpredictability has been the trend so far in 2014. The season is six races old, and so far, six different drivers have visited victory lane. The fact that big names like Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin aren’t among the list of winners yet is even more surprising. With that in mind, there is reason to expect a possible upset this weekend, and here is a closer look at a few drivers that could get the job done.

At his current 20/1 odds, Greg Biffle isn’t exactly being counted out by oddsmakers. That being said, there are far too many drivers being favored ahead of him this weekend. After all, no driver has been more consistent than Biffle at Texas in the last 10 races. During the stretch, he leads all drivers with nine top-10 finishes and has scored more points than any other driver. More importantly, he is a two-time winner at Texas, and since 2005, no driver has led more laps at the track. Biffle has easily been one of the three best drivers at Texas for the last several seasons, yet there are 12 drivers favored ahead of him. Bettors should consider taking advantage of that oversight.

I know he has gotten off to a very slow start in 2014, but Martin Truex Jr. is still being underrated at his current 50/1 odds. For one, he has 13 top-15 finishes in 16 starts at Texas, and he has eight top-10s at the track. In the last two years alone, he ranks third among all drivers in laps led at the track. Meanwhile, Truex finished a career-best second at Texas in the spring race last season, and he also led the most laps in the event. Truex basically had the best car on the track at Texas one year ago, which makes him an inviting betting option at his current odds.

With only a single win in his entire Cup career, it isn’t a big surprise to see Paul Menard only getting 75/1 odds to win this weekend. However, he has actually been solid at Texas the past few seasons. Menard has six top-20 finishes in his last seven starts at the track, including four top-15 finishes. During the stretch, he has finished as high as fifth. Perhaps more importantly, Menard looked stout in the first race at a 1.5-mile track in 2014. While several drivers struggled with handling at Las Vegas, Menard cruised to a third-place finish. With Texas sharing a similar 1.5-mile layout, there is a good chance the setup could transfer. If that happens, Menard could end up being a major steal for bettors.

Bettors looking for a serious longshot with a legit shot at winning this weekend should consider A.J. Allmendinger. He is a 200/1 dark horse, but he has a couple of things working in his favor. For one, he has always run well at Texas. In his last seven starts at the track, he has six top-20 finishes, including five top-15s. Meanwhile, he enters Sunday’s race with some momentum after finishing eighth and 11th the past two weeks. Allmendinger appears to be hitting his stride with his new team just in time to visit one of his best tracks. The combination could be enough to make him a contender this weekend, and even a small bet will pay off big at his current odds.

Check the latest NASCAR Vegas Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: