2014 Aaron’s 499 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2014 Aaron’s 499 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway, and if there was ever a week to gamble on some sleeper options, it’s this one. After all, Talladega is one of two tracks on the schedule that use restrictor plates, and nothing levels the playing field between powerhouse teams and small organizations like the horsepower-robbing devices. Essentially, the restrictor plates force every car to run at the same speed, resulting in the field being bunched in a massive pack. Not surprisingly, this type of racing inevitably leads to large, multi-car wrecks. As a result, any driver that happens to survive the wrecks that happen along the way has a shot at ending up in victory lane when the checkered flag waves. With that in mind, there is a real possibility of an upset this weekend, and here is a closer look at a few picks that stand out as great values.

He hasn’t even raced at Talladega in either of the past two seasons, but now that he has a full-time ride again, Brian Vickers will be in the field this weekend. The layoff probably has something to do with his 33/1 odds to win, but when you look at his record at Talladega, it’s actually pretty solid. He finished fifth in his most-recent start at the track, and he has seven top-15s in his last 11 starts. During the stretch, Vickers has six finishes of eighth or better, including a win. He is definitely worth taking a chance on this weekend.

Considering he is more of an announcer than a driver at this point in his career, it’s not a surprise that Michael Waltrip is a 40/1 longshot to win this weekend. However, his results at Talladega have still been pretty darn good since he began racing part time. In fact, he finished fourth at the track last spring and came within a lap of winning at the track in the fall of 2012. Waltrip is also a former winner at Talladega, and all four of his career Cup wins have come at plate tracks. The veteran knows how to work the draft as well as any driver in series history, and there is plenty of money to made given his current odds.

I know he is basically a field-filler most weeks, but it is absolutely absurd that David Ragan is only getting 66/1 odds to win this weekend. After all, we are talking about the defending winner of this weekend’s race. Meanwhile, it’s not like his victory was his only good finish at the track. Ragan has four straight finishes of seventh or better at Talladega, and his 4.5 average finish during the stretch is the best in the series. On top of that, Ragan’s 14.2 average finish at the track for his career is tied for the best among active drivers. If anything, he should be one of the favorites this weekend, and the fact that he is a 66/1 longshot makes him an absolute steal

Bettors looking for this weekend’s serious underdog should consider David Gilliland. He is a 100/1 longshot to win Sunday, but he has been one of the most-consistent performers at the track lately. He has five top-15s in his last six starts at Talladega, including four straight. Meanwhile, Gilliland is coming off his best-ever season at the track last year. In addition to finishing second, in the spring event, he finished seventh in the fall race at the track. It’s tough not to take a flier on the guy that was runner-up in this race last year when you are getting 100/1 odds.

Check the latest NASCAR Vegas Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: