2011 Subway Fresh Fit 500 Picks – Betting on Underdogs and Sleepers with Big Payoffs:
For those looking to hit it big during this weekend’s Cup Series race at Phoenix, placing a bet on Juan Pablo Montoya and Joey Logano could provide a handsome payoff. Neither has won at the track in the past, but a closer look at the numbers reveals that both drivers have been inching closer to a trip to Victory Lane. While the smart money is on Jimmie Johnson (+500 at BoDog Sportsbook) and Carl Edwards (+500), the true gamblers could make some big money with Montoya or Logano.
Montoya opens at +2500, which is a pretty intriguing line for a guy that led 104 laps and finished fifth in this weekend’s race one year ago. In fact, Montoya has finished in the top-10 in two of his last three starts at the flat track. His numbers at similar tracks are even more encouraging. His 101.2 driver rating at flat tracks since the start of the 2009 season is the third-best in the series, and his 458 laps led are second only to Jimmie Johnson.
The flat, sweeping corners at Phoenix play to Montoya’s strengths as well. The track has been compared to a road course by many drivers, and Montoya happens to be one of the top road racers in the series. He has seven top-10 finishes in eight career starts at road courses, including wins at Watkins Glen and Infineon. The numbers say that it is only a matter of time before Montoya wins, and once he gets his first, the payout is only going down in future races.
The line also sits at +2500 for Logano heading into the weekend, and while the numbers aren’t quite as encouraging as Montoya’s, they are good enough to warrant a speculative bet as well. He finished in the top-10 in six of his eight starts at flat tracks last season, including a 10th and third-place finish at Phoenix. Logano already has a flat track win at New Hampshire to his credit, and he was darn close to adding Phoenix to that list last November.
Logano has been steadily improving throughout his first two years at the Cup level, and the next logical step is winning more races. He has been at his best at flat tracks, and if he gets any better, he is going to find himself in Victory Lane. Like Montoya, the biggest payout is available before the wins start coming, and this weekend is a golden opportunity to try to cash in.
Check out the latest and most current NASCAR betting odds to win the Subway Fresh Fit 500.