2011 Jeff Byrd 500 presented by Food City Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: Bristol Motor Speedway used to be one of the toughest tracks on the Cup Series schedule. With only one lane to race in, drivers were forced to bump their way by one another, creating plenty of wrecks and cautions. Recent changes to the track’s layout have changed all that, allowing side-by-side racing and eliminating a lot of the bumping and banging. While the changes may have toned down the excitement for fans, they have also made life a lot easier for betters.
Last March at Bristol, Kurt Busch dominated most of the afternoon, leading 278 of the 500 laps. He appeared to be on his way to winning for the sixth time in his career at the track until a late caution brought pit strategy into play. Several cars took just two tires, putting Busch back in the pack for the final restart. He then got stuck behind a slower car, and Jimmie Johnson motored by Busch and then passed Tony Stewart for the win with three laps to go. Kurt settled for third.
In the August event, a Busch dominated again, but this time it was Kyle’s turn. He led 283 laps, and unlike his older brother, he was able to close the deal. David Reutimann attempted to use some pit strategy to steal the win away, but Busch was able to bump his way by and win at Bristol for the third time in his last four starts. Even though Reutimann ended up second, the finish was still impressive considering he was dealing with a bout of food poisoning.
The Favorites
Did I mention that Kyle Busch has won three of the last four races at Bristol? He has four wins at the track in his career, and he has finished in the top-10 in nine of his last 10 starts in Thunder Valley. Last August, he won the Truck, Nationwide and Cup Series races at the track in the same weekend. The smart money is definitely on Busch.
Kyle’s older brother Kurt Busch has been just as impressive at Bristol over the years, winning five times, including three straight at one point. His near win last March was part of a current run of three straight top-10 finishes at the track. Busch has finished in the top-15 in his last seven starts at the track, and he is a safe bet to be in the mix Sunday.
No driver is running better entering this weekend’s race than Carl Edwards. He has three wins and a second-place finish in his last four starts dating back to last season, and he is a two-time winner at Bristol. For betters that like playing the hot hand, Edwards is your man.
The Dark Horses
It has been a while since anyone wanted to put money on Dale Earnhardt Jr., but after back-to-back top-10s, he is once again worth trusting. In the last 10 years, no driver has a better average finish at Bristol than Junior’s 8.3 mark, and he has finished inside the top-20 in all 20 starts. He has just one win during that stretch, but the fact that he is always near the front makes him worth considering.
The track changes at Bristol have benefitted Ryan Newman as much any driver. He has finished seventh or better in four of his last five starts at the track, compiling an 8.2 average finish during the stretch. Newman is one of the hotter drivers entering this weekend’s race as well, having finished in the top-five at Phoenix and Las Vegas.
Sleepers Specials
Jamie McMurray’s 18.3 average finish at Bristol isn’t exactly inviting to potential betters, but a recent trend may change their minds. His last three results at the track have been 11th, eighth and third. If the trend continues, betters could end up with a big pay day.
Fresh of his first top-five finish at a 1.5-mile track, Marcos Ambrose heads to a Bristol track where he has had success in the past. He has two top-10s in four starts, including a third-place run. Ambrose is getting comfortable with his new Richard Petty Motorsports team, and betters won’t have too many races left to cash in on his long-shot odds if he continues to run this well.
Big Names to Avoid
He has been one of the best short track racers in NASCAR during his career, but Denny Hamlin looked awful at Bristol last season. He finished 19th and 34th in his two starts in 2010, and he simply missed the setup in the March event. Hamlin has yet to have a top-five finish this season, and with a minimal payoff available, betters should spend their money elsewhere.
It has been a miserable start to the year for Joey Logano, and his slump will likely continue this weekend at Bristol. He has yet to crack the top-15 in four career starts at the track, and his progress has been minimal. Don’t waste your money.
Check out the opening 2011 Jeff Byrd 500 presented by Food City Odds this Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway.