2011 Auto Club 400 Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: Auto Club Speedway is one of two tracks on the Cup Series schedule that feature a 2.0-mile layout. While the large racing surface allows drivers to comfortably run three-wide, it also brings fuel mileage into play because of the long green flag runs that have become a staple of ACS. In the past, Ford teams had the edge at fuel mileage tracks, but with the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow, the drivers getting the best fuel mileage seem to vary from race to race. If this weekend’s race comes down to fuel mileage, bettors could see a surprise winner and a potentially big payoff.
In the February event last season, Jimmie Johnson had a fast car and a little luck on his side. He led a race-high 101 laps, but the Richard Childress Racing duo Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton were poised to wrestle away the win. The key moment of the race came when a caution flew during a round of green flag pit stops while Johnson was on pit road. Burton was within a few feet of putting Johnson a lap down, but instead, Johnson restarted in the lead and never looked back.
The fall event turned into a duel between Clint Bowyer and Tony Stewart, and once again, pit stops played a factor. Bowyer was pulling away in the closing laps until a late debris caution brought all the cars to pit road. Stewart’s crew got him off pit road first, and Stewart took advantage of the track position to win his first career race at Auto Club Speedway.
The Favorites
By the numbers, Jimmie Johnson is as good at Auto Club Speedway as any driver is at any track. His 5.3 average finish is by far the best in the series, and his five victories are a series record. Johnson has finished in the top-10 in his last eight starts at the track, finishing in the top-three seven times. Bettors should have the utmost confidence in Johnson this weekend.
Former ACS winner Carl Edwards has 10 finishes of seventh or better in 13 starts at the track. More importantly, he has been the most consistent winner in series lately. A hot driver at one of his best tracks is a no-brainer pick for bettors.
His move to Stewart-Haas Racing has led to instant success in Fontana for Tony Stewart. He has finished in the top-10 in all four starts at the track since becoming an owner/driver, and he went to Victory Lane at the track last fall. His career numbers don’t stack up with Edwards or Johnson, but he is definitely one of the hottest drivers at Fontana.
The Dark Horses
Clint Bowyer has been both consistent and getting better at Auto Club Speedway. He has never finished outside the top-20 at the track, and he has finished inside the top-10 in his last three starts. Last fall, Bowyer led 40 laps and nearly won the race. Although he eventually settled for second, Bowyer established himself as a potential winner at the track going forward.
Three straight finishes outside the top-10 at ACS may have some people overlooking Kyle Busch, but bettors shouldn’t make the same mistake. Prior to his three-race slump, he finished in the top-10 in eight straight starts. He had four top-five finishes in those eight races, including a win.
Sleepers Specials
It’s safe to say that the 2.0-mile tracks are Brian Vickers’ best. He won at Michigan, which is a sister track to Auto Club Speedway. At ACS, he has finished 12th or better in six of his last seven starts. Vickers confidence will be high heading to one of his top tracks, and bettors should have plenty of confidence in Vickers this weekend.
Both his career wins have come at 1.5-mile tracks, but David Reutimann hasn’t been bad at the 2.0-mile tracks either. He has finished inside the top-20 in his last five starts at Auto Club Speedway, including four top-15 efforts. Reutimann is a guy that is always close enough to the front of the field that he could capitalize on a few lucky breaks if they come his way.
Big Names to Avoid
His 16.5 average finish at ACS is solid, but Jamie McMurray has been in a dreadful slump after the track after finding nothing but success at the track early in his career. He has followed six straight top-15 finishes at the track with nine straight finishes outside the top-15. He may have won three times last season, but you probably won’t find him in Victory Lane this weekend.
At one time, Martin Truex Jr. was an up and coming star at ACS. However, it has been a constant struggle for him since logging back-to-back sixth-place finishes at the track. Truex Jr. has finished outside the top-15 in his last five starts at the track, and betting on his reputation for his past accomplishments is a mistake.
Check out the opening 2011 Auto Club 400 Odds this Sunday at Auto CLub Speedway.