MLB Moneyline Underdogs
Key Points
– Betting on MLB favorites is a recipe for disaster.
– MLB bettors should focus on betting plus-money underdogs and a certain subset of plus-money underdogs.
MLB Moneyline Underdogs
MLB betting is fun. Your baseball picks can be exciting and enjoyable. But it’s really only that enjoyable if you are winning more than you lose. In order to get on the right side of your MLB bets, there are some things any MLB bettor should know.
MLB bettors should avoid big favorites and focus on MLB moneyline underdogs. It’s a strategy that can pay off in the long run.
The Problem with Big Favorites
Oddsmakers are well aware that the betting public loves favorites. These recreational bettors love popular teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox. They love teams with star players and they typically far too often bet on them.
The problem with big favorites is their price. If you continually bet on MLB teams favored -150 or higher at your offshore sportsbook, you will lose money. A lot of it.
Since 2005, favorites of -150 or higher have won 63 percent of their games. Now, you might think that’s great, but if you had bet on all those games you would be in the hole over $30,000 (assuming $100 bettor).
When you win on big favorites, you don’t win that much. When you lose on a big favorite, you lose big. That’s one of the reasons you’re better off with moneyline underdogs.
How were your March Madness bets? Did you read our article about betting NCAAB parlays?
Look for Plus-Money Dogs
Remember, assuming -110 odds on all bets, a bettor would need to win 52.4 percent of the time. If you get plus-money (+110, +120, etc.) odds, you don’t even need to win half of your bets in order to earn a profit. That’s what makes paying close attention to sports odds and scores very important.
If you go back to 2008, and wager on all plus-money MLB underdogs, those teams’ winning percentage was just 47.1. But, since you’re getting plus-money odds a $100 bettor would be up over $20K!
It’s in your best interest as an MLB bettor then to take advantage of plus-money underdogs.
Breaking Down the Dogs – MLB Moneyline Underdogs
MLB bettors shouldn’t just haphazardly pick plus-money underdogs and expect wins. You can actually break the category down a bit further and find which plus-money dogs to focus on.
Every MLB season, teams within the same division play each other 19 times. Playing that many games against one team breeds some familiarity. That levels the playing field a bit and gives an advantage to the underdog.
If you go back to 2005, you will find that underdogs lose more games to opponents outside of their division than to opponents within their division.
Now, you can take that category – divisional underdogs – and break it down even further. The public tends to overvalue home field advantage. That typically results in an undervalued road underdog.
Bettors can also look to divisional underdogs and road divisional underdogs in games with a high total. That would be a game with a total of 8.5 or higher. With more runs expected in the game, there is more variance in run scoring. That means oddsmakers expect more runs out of the visiting team giving that road underdog an advantage.
Betting road divisional underdogs in games with high totals also works. Since 2005, if you had bet on all such games, a $100 bettor would be up over $7K.
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