2019 AAC Championship Game Predictions: Cincinnati vs Memphis Free Pick & Odds: Last weekend, the 16th-ranked Memphis Tigers (11-1) knocked of the 21st-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) 34-24 to clinch the American Athletic Conference West Division title and earn a spot in and the right to host the AAC Championship Game. Who will they be facing in that game? Those same Bearcats, who had already clinched the East Division crown prior to the first meeting with the Tigers.
Obviously, the conference title will be on the line in the rematch, but Memphis will likely lock up a bid to the Cotton Bowl as the top-ranked Group of 5 team with a win, and Cincinnati would at least keep itself in the running for that New Year’s Six spot with a victory. The Tigers were 11-point favorites the first time around, and they are 10-point favorites in this one.
Typically, not much is going to change in a week, and at its core, this matchup is a clash of styles. The Tigers have a high-powered offense that is fueled by big plays, and with the trio of quarterback Brady White, running back Kenneth Gainwell and receiver Damonte Coxie leading the way, they are averaging 41.5 points per game. Cincinnati wants to control the clock and wear down opponents with a power running game led by bruising back Michael Warren II. That being said, the Bearcats could receive a boost if starting quarterback Desmond Ridder is able to return from injury.
2019 AAC Championship Game Predictions: Cincinnati vs Memphis Free Pick & Odds
The Bearcats Win If:
Cincinnati’s preferred style of play is the perfect recipe for slowing down the Tigers, but the Bearcats have to be able to execute. They need to establish Warren and the power running game as early as possible, controlling the clock, controlling field position and slowly wearing down and frustrating a Memphis team that wants to utilize its speed. Avoiding turnovers is an absolute must for the Bearcats when they have the ball, and limiting the splash plays from the Memphis offense needs to be the No. 1 priority for their defense. Cincinnati needs a lower-scoring contest that is won in the trenches and not with offensive fireworks.
The Tigers Win If:
Any time two drastically different styles are involved, the team that can control the tempo has a huge advantage. If the Tigers can jump on top early with some big plays and force the Bearcats to abandon the run, this game could get ugly. The Bearcats simply are not built to score in bunches and play from behind. Memphis can also help itself by winning at the line of scrimmage on early downs and putting Cincinnati in obvious passing situations and then getting off the field on third down. If the Tigers allow the Bearcats to go on long drives, their defense is going to tire, and their biggest advantage, a potent offense, is going to be sitting on the sidelines instead of putting points on the board. Memphis needs to land a couple of haymakers early.
Bottom Line:
Even though Cincinnati lost the first meeting between these teams, the Bearcats did a solid job of establishing the run despite backup quarterback Ben Bryant committing three turnovers in his first career start. At worst, Bryant should be a little calmer in the rematch, and there is still a chance that Ridder could return. Meanwhile, the Tigers only won by 10 despite connecting on a couple of big plays in the passing game and returning a kickoff for a score. Cincinnati has already shown the ability to dictate the tempo against Memphis, and the Bearcats held the Tigers to their third-lowest point total of the season and their lowest output since a loss to Temple in early October. With what should be a better quarterback situation in the rematch, I’m jumping on the Bearcats and the 10 points.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats (+10) Cover the Spread
