2015 College Football Playoff Picks: Michigan State vs Alabama Odds and Predictions – Goodyear Cotton Bowl Picks 12/31/2015

2015 College Football Playoff Picks: Michigan State vs Alabama Odds and Predictions – Goodyear Cotton Bowl Picks 12/31/2015: The second of two College Football Playoff semifinal matchups will match the third-ranked Michigan State Spartans against the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl with the winner earning a spot in the national title game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. EST with the Crimson Tide favored by 10.

It is remarkable how similar these teams are. Both survived early losses to rally to win their respective conferences, and both teams pride themselves on controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Obviously, something has to give in a matchup between two teams that want to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, but a hard-hitting game seems inevitable.

Alabama is led on defense by a nasty defensive line that has anchored a unit that is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game and leads the country in sacks. Michigan State isn’t too far behind, ranking in the top 10 against the run and the top 25 in sacks. On the other side of the ball, Heisman winner Derrick Henry leads Alabama’s power rushing attack, and quarterback Connor Cook leads a balanced Michigan State unit.

The Spartans Win If:

The formula is simple for the Spartans. The MSU defense has to be able to slow Henry and prevent Alabama from controlling the clock and wearing the unit down. Equally as important, the Spartans have to force Alabama QB Jake Coker to have to win the game. The one position where Michigan State has the clear advantage is at quarterback, and if the Spartans can turn this game into a battle of quarterbacks, the experienced Cook should be able to make more big plays than Alabama’s first-year starter, Coker. For their part, Coker and the Michigan State offense have to avoid turnovers. The last thing the Spartans can afford is to give the Crimson Tide any easy points.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

For Alabama to advance to the title game, they need to establish the run early on. Michigan State isn’t the type of team that typically explodes on offense, so if the Crimson Tide can sustain some early drives, they will begin to wear down the Spartans’ defense and give the Spartans’ offense poor field position to work with. Defensively, Alabama needs to get steady pressure on Cook and prevent Michigan State from connecting on big plays. If the Spartans have to slowly work their way up and down the field, they are going to have issues scoring points.

Bottom Line:

In a matchup between two teams that essentially want to do the same thing, Alabama would seem to have an edge in the areas that matter most. The Crimson Tide have the best defensive line in the country, and Henry might be the best running back in the country and is certainly the best back on the field in this game. That being said, Michigan State is as good as any team at using the underdog role as motivation to deliver an inspired performance. The Spartans absolutely shut down Ohio State’s potent running attack in Columbus and did the same to Iowa in the Big Ten title game. The quarterbacks are going to have to make some plays in this game, and Cook is flat out better than Coker. Alabama’s overall edge in talent may eventually win out, but the Spartans are going to make this a grinding, low-scoring affair, and they should have no trouble covering the double-digit spread.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (+10) Cover the Spread

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