2012 College Football Picks: Ohio State @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/29/2012: When Michigan State visited Columbus last year, Ohio State’s offense was thoroughly embarrassed, and the Buckeyes surrendered nine sacks in an ugly 10-7 loss. This year, the 20th-ranked Spartans (3-1) bring an equally stout defense to the table, but when the 14th-ranked Buckeyes visit East Lansing Saturday, they will bring a more formidable offense. New coach Urban Meyer’s spread option system has Ohio State ranked in the top 25 nationally in scoring at almost 38 points per game, and the Buckeyes will get their biggest test to date against a Michigan State defense that is allowing less than 12 points per game. Something has to give in this Big Ten battle, and armed with home-field advantage, the Spartans are 2 ½-point favorites.
How well Michigan State can contain OSU quarterback Braxton Miller will be a major factor in deciding the outcome of this one. Miller has been the centerpiece and workhorse of Meyer’s offense, throwing for seven scores and running for seven more. He has almost 1,200 yards of offense this year, and more than 400 has come on the ground. At times, he has literally carried the Buckeyes’ up and down the field, but he has yet to do so against an opponent like Michigan State. The Spartans have the talent up front to at least contain and limit the OSU ground attack, and it is a big question mark as to whether Miller is ready to beat a quality opponent using mainly his arm. Yes, the Buckeyes should be able to surpass last year’s diminutive offensive output, but they aren’t going to be approaching their season average of 37.8 either.
Of course even if the Spartans shut down the OSU offense, Michigan State needs to score. After all, MSU won by just three points last year despite completely controlling the game. This year’s offense has been very inconsistent as quarterback Andrew Maxwell has struggled to get the passing attack going in his first year as starter, and while running back Le’Veon Bell has been a true workhorse, the Spartans’ offense is one dimensional and predictable. Take away a 41-point outburst against Central Michigan, and Michigan State is averaging just 14.3 points in its other three games in 2012. That average includes a pitiful three-point effort in a loss to Notre Dame.
The X-factor in the game is going to be Ohio State’s defense. While Meyer’s offense has gotten rave reviews, the Buckeyes’ defense hasn’t exactly been stifling. Aside from a strong defensive line, OSU has looked vulnerable in the secondary and at the linebacker spots. Ohio State’s defense allowed UCF to score 16 points and UAB to score 15 points, and the Buckeyes couldn’t bury either team. The unit also allowed California to put up 28 as OSU nearly blew a comfortable lead. Throw in the fact that Ohio State’s defense has yet to deal with the crowd noise that comes with a road game, and it is safe to say that the Spartans should at least manage a couple of touchdowns Saturday.
Add it up, and another low-scoring game should be on tap between these two conference rivals. Ohio State’s offense has been much better than in recent years, but it hasn’t exactly been unstoppable or consistent. This weekend, Miller and company will be facing by far the toughest defense they have seen in 2012 and will be doing so on the road. The questionable OSU defense against an equally questionable Michigan State offense will be the tipping point, but the Spartans should be able to use the home crowd and power running of Bell to grind out a close win.
Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-2 ½) Cover the Spread
Ohio State @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Michigan St -3
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST on ABC
Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Odds and Vegas College Football Lines plus daily updated BCS National Championship Futures Odds and 2012 College Bowl Game Odds.
| 2 EASY STEPS to BET on the 2012 College Football Odds! STEP 1: CLICK HERE to OPEN BOVADA Account STEP 2: Deposit with Credit Card or Deposit by Check and get a 20% BONUS instantly FREE. |