2014 NCAA Bracketology Picks & Predictions: No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First

2014 NCAA Bracketology Picks & Predictions: No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First: While it’s true that there has never been a No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in the NCAA tournament, the top seeds cease to be a sure thing as soon as the Round of 32 begins. After all, all four top seeds have reached the Final Four only once (2008) and three No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four only three times. In other words, it is almost a guarantee that at least of one of the top seeds will be going down, and they will likely go down sooner rather than later. With that in mind, here is a closer at which of the top seeds should be worried and which should have life a little easier.

1.      Wichita State Shockers (Midwest Region)

I’m not discounting Wichita State simply because they play in the Missouri Valley Conference, but a potential third-round matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats poses one heck of a challenge for the undefeated Shockers. After all, Wichita State isn’t an overly big team, and Kentucky brings a huge frontcourt led by Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein. The Shockers have pretty much been able to bully and outmuscle all of its opponents this season, and while the Wildcats have their flaws, a lack of muscle and athleticism isn’t among them. Kentucky could easily dominate the paint and the glass. Throw in the fact that knocking off a No. 1 seed would be a great first step toward salvaging what has been a disappointing season thus far, and the young Wildcats are sure to be motivated. If Kentucky does indeed advance, the Shockers’ perfect season could come to an abrupt end.

2.      Arizona Wildcats (West Region)

Arizona couldn’t have been happy to Oklahoma State as a potential third-round opponent. The Cowboys were a top-five team early in the year, but the suspension of star point guard Marcus Smart and a seven-game skid left them on the NCAA tournament bubble. Well, Smart is back, and the Cowboys closed the year on a 5-2 stretch with the two losses coming in overtime to Kansas and Iowa State. Against the Wildcats specifically, OSU’s backcourt of Smart and Markel Brown could pose major issues for Arizona’s guards. Smart alone is the type of player that can take over a game, and while the Wildcats’ defense is legit, a matchup with an explosive offensive team led by a future NBA lottery pick is far from ideal so early in the NCAA tournament. The Cowboys could give Arizona all it can handle and then some.

3.      Virginia Cavaliers (East Region)

The Cavaliers have come out of nowhere to dominate the ACC and earn a No.1 seed, and armed with the best defense in the country, they should have no trouble getting by either Memphis or George Washington in the third round to reach the Sweet 16. After that, Virginia’s road gets a lot tougher with possible meetings with the likes of Michigan State or Cincinnati. That being said, the lack of threatening opponent waiting in the Round of 32 should have the Cavaliers breathing a little easier than some of the top seeds in this years tournament.

4.      Florida Gators (South Region)

Florida is the top seed in the entire tournament, and they were rewarded with a fairly comfortable path to the Final Four. Unless the No. 2 seed Kansas gets healthy, there isn’t another team in the region that can match the balance and depth of the Gators.  Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Syracuse have strong defenses but struggle to score. UCLA can score, but they tend not to show up on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Gators play elite defense every time out, and they multiple players that can carry the offensive load.

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