2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: North Carolina @ Miami Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/15/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: North Carolina @ Miami 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/15/12: Things couldn’t get more jumbled atop the ACC standings, with three teams tied for first place. One of those teams is the seventh-ranked North Carolina Tarheels (21-4), who are beginning a tough stretch the features four of six games away from Chapel Hill. The first of those road tests takes place Wednesday night on ESPN, when the Tarheels face the Miami Hurricanes (15-8). Miami is on a bit of a hot streak, having won five of its last six and upsetting Duke during the stretch. The Hurricanes will try to keep the upsets coming, but they are five-point underdogs against North Carolina.

On the stat sheet, there is no comparison. The Tarheels are the top-scoring team in the country, averaging 83.5 points per game. They are also the top rebounding team in the country, grabbing more than 46 per game. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes barely crack the top 100 in any offensive category and have been shooting below 43 percent in conference play.  They also struggle on the glass, ranking 163rd in the country. Not surprisingly, North Carolina cruised past the Hurricanes 73-56 at home in early January.

Despite appearing to be overwhelmed, especially after the first meeting, Miami is 6-4 in conference play for a reason. They have a way of being physical and almost nasty with opponents, and they basically pushed around the Blue Devils. The Hurricanes will have to find a way to do the same Wednesday in order to slow down the loaded Tarheels’ frontcourt. The trio of Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes are averaging 47.5 points per game combined, and Zeller and Henson are averaging double-doubles.

The silver lining for the Hurricanes is that they actually match up well with North Carolina’s interior size. Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson are both solid on both ends of the court. Both players are scoring more than 11 points per game, shooting more than 52 percent from the field and blocking more than a shot per game. The duo combined for 28 points in the first meeting and actually held the Tarheels’ big men in check, including holding Barnes to just six points. Unfortunately, Miami got almost zero production from the rest of its team, leading to the blowout loss.

If the Hurricanes are going to reverse the outcome, they slow down North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall. He had 12 points and eight assists, and his ability to push the ball up the court prevented the Miami defense from setting up on several occasions. Miami needs the chance to be physical and rough in the post, and the Hurricanes don’t have enough firepower on offense to give up easy baskets.

The X-factor in the game could be Miami guard Durand Scott. He is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 12.6 points per game. In the first meeting with the Tarheels, he did manage to score 12 points, but he made just four of his 12 shots. The Hurricanes need some consistent production from the perimeter in order to compete with the North Carolina offense. As the most experienced Miami player at the guard position, Scott has to be the added dimension to the Hurricanes’ offense.

Even with Miami playing better basketball of late, the team’s inconsistent offense is a terrible match for the high-powered Tarheels’ attack. The Hurricanes are going to have a hard time playing any better on the defensive end than they did in January, and they still got throttled. Miami simply doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to compete with North Carolina, and even home-court advantage won’t close the gap for the overmatched Hurricanes.

Prediction: North Carolina Tarheels (-5) Cover the Spread

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