2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: Kansas @ Missouri Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/4/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Kansas @ Missouri 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 2/4/12: The two best teams in the Big 12 will be in action Saturday when the eighth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks (18-4) go on the road to face the fourth-ranked Missouri Tigers (20-2) in primetime on ESPN. The Jayhawks are sitting atop the conference standings entering the battle of top-10 teams, but the Tigers are just a game back. Long-term, the winner of Saturday’s matchup could have the inside track to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament when March rolls around. With both teams looking to make a serious statement on the national level, an intense game should be on tap. Armed with the all-important home-field advantage, Missouri is a three-point favorite.

Two solid offenses will go toe to toe in this one. Kansas scores more than 75 points per game and shoots more than 48 percent from the field. That being said, the Tigers have an elite offense. Missouri ranks seventh in the country in point per game, averaging 81.2 a contest. The Tigers are also incredibly efficient, ranking fifth in the country with a team field goal percentage of 49.8. Whichever side comes out on top, it will likely come in a high-scoring, fast-paced game.

Missouri has been piling up points thanks in large part to a loaded backcourt. The Tigers have four guards averaging double figures this season. Marcus Denmon (17.1) and Kim English (14.1) have been the two most consistent scoring options, but Michael Dixon and Flip Pressey can do damage as well. Denmon and English have both connected on more than 50 3-pointers this season, and English is shooting nearly 50 percent from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Denmon’s ability to crash the lane and get to the foul line gives his game an added dimension. Overall, the Tigers’ depth and talent and guard are the main reasons they have been able to push the tempo and score and such a high level.

The tough task of controlling the Missouri backcourt falls on Kansas point guard Tyshawn Taylor and fellow guard Travis Releford. Taylor will be particularly important because of his ability on the offensive end. He is scoring almost 17 points per game, and he has the size and speed to score against the Denmon and English. Taylor has to make the Missouri guards exert energy on the defensive end in order to slow them down a bit on the offensive end.

Of course, Kansas can create some mismatches for Missouri as well The Jayhawks have one of the best post players in the country in forward Thomas Robinson. The double-double machine is averaging 17.6 points and 12.0 rebounds per game this season. Against a relatively small Tigers’ team that doesn’t rebound well, Robinson could score at will in the paint and control the tempo of the game in the process. When they faced then third-ranked Baylor, the Jayhawks used heavy doses of Robinson to physically dominate the high-scoring Bears. Missouri has a similar team setup to Baylor, which could mean another big game for Robinson.

Given Robinson’s size and strength in the post, Missouri forward Ricardo Ratliffe becomes the likely X-factor. He is the Tigers’ most-talented big man, averaging more than 14 points and almost seven rebounds per game. Ratliffe doesn’t necessarily have to dominate on the offensive end, but he has to keep Robinson in check on defense and has to control the boards for Missouri. If he can at least limit the second-chance opportunities for the Jayhawks, Missouri’s guards should be able to handle the rest.

With Kansas having the edge in the frontcourt and Missouri having the edge in the backcourt, something has to give. The Jayhawks have to establish Robinson early in the game to control the tempo because falling behind could be a death sentence. Kansas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, and if the game gets up into the 80s, the Tigers’ firepower on the perimeter could be too much for the Jayhawks to match. That being said, Robinson and company have had no issues using their size advantage all year, and they should be able to give the Tigers all they can handle in this one.

Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks (+3) Cover the Spread

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