2011 Ford 400 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs – How to Bet on the 2011 Ford 400: The 2011 Sprint Cup season opened with a stunning upset as rookie Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500. The upsets continued, and Regan Smith won the Southern 500 and Paul Menard won the Brickyard 400. In total, five drivers became first-time winners at the Cup level this season. In a year that was highlighted by surprise winners, it would only be fitting if an upset took place in the season finale this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Two drivers capable of ending the year on such a note are A.J. Allmendinger and Martin Truex Jr.

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With all the first-time winners in the Cup Series this season, A.J. Allmendinger is now universally considered the best driver without a win. He has been trying to change that in recent weeks, picking up top-10 finishes in three of his last four starts leading up to this weekend’s race. More importantly, Homestead-Miami Speedway has been his best track on the schedule since he joined the series.

He has finished 11th or better in all three starts at the track, compiling an 8.7 average finish that ranks third among active drivers. Allmendinger has improved his result in every start at the 1.5-mile track, including a career-best fifth-place finish last season. If the trend of improvement continues, he should be fighting for the win Sunday. At his current 40/1 odds, he is definitely worth a look from bettors.

Martin Truex Jr. has a history of success at Homestead as well. He has finished 11th or better in five straight starts at the track, compiling a 7.5 average finish during the stretch. He has finished as high as second during the stretch, and last year, he led the second most laps of any driver during the finale.

He has developed a reputation of being unreliable and unpredictable, and rightfully so. However, Homestead has been his best track, and he has not only had solid results, but he has led plenty of laps as well. Truex Jr. has just won Cup win to his name, but if he is going to return to Victory Lane, Homestead is one of the most likely tracks. At his current 50/1 odds, the potential reward outweighs the risk.

View the most current 2011 Ford 400 Odds for the 2011 Ford 400 this Sunday, November 20th at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

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