2013 NBA Picks and Odds: Western Conference Playoff First-Round Series Predictions: As it has been for the last several years, the Western Conference was the deepest in the NBA this season. After all, 15 games separated the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder from the eighth-seeded Houston Rockets in the final standings. In the Eastern Conference, 16.5 games separated top-seeded Miami from the third-seeded Indiana Pacers, and the eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks were 28 games back in the final regular season standings. Needless to say, the Western Conference is loaded with quality teams, and whichever team advances to the NBA Finals is going to have to earn it. Not to mention the fact that the possibility of an upset or two is more likely in the Western Conference. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the first-round series in the West for the 2013 NBA playoffs.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets
Two of the top-three offensive teams in the NBA will go head to head in this series, and the matchup also has the added drama of former Thunder player James Harden facing his old team. Harden has blossomed into a star as the Rocket’s main offensive threat, and Houston actually averages more points per game than Oklahoma City. However, the Thunder still have two elite scorers in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and the Rockets are also allowing the third-most points in the league. Granted, Houston center Omer Asik is a solid interior defender, but Jeremy Lin is going to get torched by Westbrook at the point of attack and Durant doesn’t need to get into the paint to pile up a ton of points. Harden and Houston’s array of 3-point threats are bound to catch fire for at least one game, but Durant and company are going to expose the Rockets’ suspect defense and run away with the series.
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder Win in 5 Games
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
It was far from pretty, but the Lakers avoided what would have been one of the biggest failures in recent memory and snuck into the playoffs in the final days of the regular season. Unfortunately, Kobe Bryant’s Achilles injury means that the player that was largely responsible for getting Los Angeles to the playoffs won’t be around to help. As a result, the Lakers’ offense will have to convert from Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo system to a more post-oriented attack fueled Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. As if shifting philosophies heading into the playoffs wasn’t enough, the Lakers’ suspect backcourt is going to have serious issues containing San Antonio point guard Tony Parker and budding star Kawhi Leonard. Don’t forget San Antonio ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring during the regular season, and a rejuvenated Tim Duncan gives them some muscle in the paint, as well. Even is Steve Nash does return, his own deficiencies on the defensive won’t solve the team’s biggest issue. Parker is going to get wherever he wants to get on the court all series long, and the Spurs are going to pick apart a Lakers’ team that no longer has a player that can take over games in crunch time.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs Win in 5 Games
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
If you like explosive offenses, you are going to love this series. The Nuggets were the highest-scoring team in the NBA during the regular season while the Warriors ranked seventh. Denver has an up-tempo, balanced offensive attack that is fueled by point guard Ty Lawson, and they are also active on the defensive end thanks to forward Andre Iguodala and big men JaVale McGee and Kenneth Faried. That being said, Golden State’s backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can light it up from beyond the arc, and Curry actually set the single-season record for 3-pointers made this year. Meanwhile, power forward David Lee is an athletic, double-double machine in the post, and Jarrett Jack is instant offense off the bench. Both teams can put up plenty of points, and while the Nuggets are missing one of their main weapons in Danilo Gallinari, the fact that Denver has home-court advantage in the series is huge. Even the most-athletic teams in the NBA have trouble keeping up with the Nuggets in the thin air of Denver, and they have an NBA-best 38-3 record at home to prove. Curry and company will scorch the nets for a game or two and make the series interesting, but in the end, Denver will ride home-court advantage to the next round.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets Win in 6 Games
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies
This is a rematch of an epic, seven-game series from last year that the Clippers ultimately won, and given the contrasting styles of play between the two teams, another lengthy series should be on tap. While Chris Paul and Blake Griffin head the Clippers’ explosive offensive attack, the Grizzlies like to win ugly behind the NBA’s stingiest defense and the post play of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Although Memphis’ defense ranked either first or second in nearly every major category, it is worth noting that during the regular season, the Clippers’ defense actually shut down the Grizzlies, holding them to 92 points or less in three of the four meetings. Tempo and pace are going to be crucial, and there is no better floor general in the NBA than Paul. He is the most important player in this series, and while Memphis’ Tony Allen is an elite perimeter defender, Paul will be tough to guard because he can beat the Grizzlies with both his scoring and his passing. Memphis will certainly do its fair share of pummeling in the post, but in the end, Paul will make the game-changing plays that tip the scales in favor of the Clippers.
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers Win in 7 Games
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