2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the TicketGuardian 500: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at ISM Raceway this weekend as the West Coast swing rolls on. You probably know ISM as Phoenix Raceway, but whatever you call it, the low-banked track will play host to Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500.
The race also breaks up the run of 1.5-mile tracks, and after seeing the Ford teams flex some serious muscle at Atlanta and Las Vegas, I’m expecting to ISM to level the playing field a bit. Certain drivers just seem to have a feel for flatter tracks, and I expect the drivers that have had success here in the past to continue to dominate Sunday.
With that in mind, here is a closer look at who I’m betting on and who I’m avoiding among the Vegas favorites for the TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway.
2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets for the TicketGuardian 500
The Favorites
Kyle Busch (+550)
Kevin Harvick has by far the best overall numbers at ISM, but Busch has been on his level recently, and he’ll give you a better payout this weekend. Busch has finished seventh or better in his last five starts at the track, and no driver has scored more points at the track during that stretch. He also led a race-high 114 laps in the March race here last year, and he led 75 laps in the March race in 2016. I view Busch and Harvick as co-favorites this weekend, so I’ll take Busch and the higher margin for profit.
Denny Hamlin (+950)
Hamlin can be one of the streakiest drivers in the series, but he has been fast out of the gate in 2018, and he’s heading to one of his best tracks. He is a former winner at ISM, and he had the car to beat here last fall when he led a race-high 193 laps before being wrecked in the final laps. Hamlin tends to do his best work at flat tracks like ISM, and after having the field covered the last time the series stopped in the desert, I like him at these odds this weekend.
Chase Elliott (+950)
You can make a pretty good argument that ISM is Elliott’s best track on the schedule. In four starts here, he has compiled a 7.8 average finish. More importantly, he was a contender for the win in both races here last year. He led 106 laps in the March race, and he led 34 laps in the fall race before giving up the lead in the closing laps and finishing fourth. These odds aren’t all that bad for a driver who led a ton of laps at ISM last year.
Joey Logano (+1350)
Logano is my absolute favorite bet among the top contenders this weekend. These odds are way too favorable for a driver who is off to a great start in 2018 and who has excellent numbers at ISM. Since joining Team Penske, Logano has led 30-plus laps in five of his 10 starts at the track, and he has led 50-plus in two of the last three. He led over 80 laps in this race last year, and he won the fall race in 2016. If I’m putting a lot of money down on one of the favorites, it is going to be on Logano.
Bad Bets
Kevin Harvick (+200)
Don’t get me wrong. Harvick has a very good chance of winning this weekend. He is coming off back-to-back wins at Atlanta and Las Vegas, and he has 10 career wins at ISM, including four in eight starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. All that being said, he hasn’t led a single lap in the last three races at the track with SHR after leading 139 or more in his first five starts with the team. There’s also the fact that you aren’t going to win much money by betting on him even if he wins. Despite his success this year and career success at ISM, I think Harvick might be slightly overvalued from a betting standpoint.
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Truex has been the best driver in the series for more than a year now, but ISM is just not his best track. Yes, he managed a third-place finish here last fall, but he didn’t lead a lap in either race at the track last year. In fact, he hasn’t led any laps here since 2012, and in 24 career starts, he has managed just five top-five finishes. You are paying for a name with Truex this weekend, not results. Don’t waste your money.
Get weekly Bovada NASCAR betting odds updated LIVE directly on NSAwins.com!
| 2 EASY STEPS to BET on the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Odds! STEP 1: CLICK HERE to OPEN BOVADA Account STEP 2: Deposit with Credit Card or Deposit by Check and get a 100% BONUS upto $250 FREE. |