College Basketball Picks: Louisville @ Kentucky Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 12/31/11

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Louisville @ Kentucky 2011 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS 12/31/11: What’s better than a matchup between a pair of top-five teams? How about a matchup of top-five teams that also happen to be bitter in-state rivals? College basketball fans will get to enjoy just that when the fourth-ranked Louisville Cardinals (12-1) travel to Rupp Arena to face the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (12-1). The Cardinals lost to Big East foe Georgetown earlier in the week and will be looking to avenge their first loss of the year with their biggest win. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will look to extend their 41-game home winning at the expense of Rick Pitino’s team. Kentucky is a 10-point favorite in this one.

If wins were given put based on talent alone, the Wildcats would never lose. Kentucky is loaded with NBA-caliber players, but with most of them being either freshmen or sophomores, experience can sometimes be an issue. Still, the young lineup has been impressive on the stat sheets, ranking 11th or better in terms of points scored, rebounds and field goal percentage. The Wildcats can score from the outside or from the inside, but they are most dangerous in transition when athleticism takes over. If the Cardinals are going to pull off the upset, they can’t try to outscore and run up and down with Kentucky.

In order to control the tempo, Louisville needs to get points in its half court offense. Center Gorgui Dieng will play a crucial role. He currently averages more than 10 points and 10 rebounds per game, and while he is physical on the glass, his polished post moves allow the Cardinals to run the offense through him to create open looks for guards Kyle Kuric, Russ Smith and others.

However, Kentucky has the personnel to make life tough for Dieng and the rest of the Cardinals’ big men. Freshman center Anthony Davis has been a monster in his young career, averaging more than 11 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks per game. His value on the defensive end can’t be overstated, and at times, he completely locks down the paint. Davis, along with forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, can also score down low. If Louisville has to commit an extra defender to stopping either player, Kentucky’s perimeter firepower should capitalize. After all, guards Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague and Darius Miller, along with versatile forward Terrence Jones, all average double figures.  

Facing such a high-powered offense, the Cardinals’ X-factor could be guard Peyton Siva. Although he can be turnover prone at times and take his fair share of bad shots, he is also an explosive scorer. When he gets hot, Siva can take over a game, scoring from the perimeter and getting to the rim. While the Cardinals would prefer to keep the game low scoring, Siva could save the day if the game becomes a high-scoring affair.

In the end, Louisville is definitely outclassed in terms of offensive firepower. That being said, their pressure defense should be able to force some turnovers from the inexperienced Wildcats to keep the game within striking distance. While the Cardinals really don’t have an answer for Anthony in the middle, Pitino’s team won’t be afraid to make it ugly to keep things close. Kentucky should ultimately win the game, but a 10-point spread is just too much in a rivalry game.

Prediction: Louisville Cardinals (+10) Cover the Spread

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