2014 Elite Eight West Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting

2014 Elite Eight West Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting: If you haven’t picked at least a few upsets during the 2014 NCAA tournament, you bracket probably isn’t in great shape. After all, Saturday’s West Region final between Arizona and Wisconsin is the only Elite Eight matchup between a No. 1 and a No. 2 seed in this year’s tournament. Despite the regular-season success, neither program has made a Final Four run in the last decade. In fact, the Badgers haven’t cut down the nets since 2000 while the Wildcats last reached the national semifinals in 2001. Obviously, the drought is going to soon end for one team, and the action begins Saturday night in Anaheim with the Arizona favored by 3 points.

Wisconsin’s road to the Elite Eight started with a 40-point destruction of American in the Round of 64, and after needing a huge second-half rally to slip past Oregon in the Round of 32, the Badgers crushed Baylor in Sweet 16. A surprisingly-potent offense has led the way, and Wisconsin is averaging more than 76 points per game. Versatile big man Frank Kaminsky has led the way, but Sam Dekker, Ben Brust and Traevon Jackson have all contributed to what has been a balanced offensive attack all season.

Although the top-seeded Wildcats haven’t been blowing out teams in the NCAA tournament, they have looked dominant on the defensive end. Arizona is holding opponents to 61.3 points per game thus far after ranking in the top five nationally in points allowed during the regular season. On the offensive end, it has been the usual suspects doing the damage for the Wildcats. Guard Nick Johnson and forward Aaron Gordon have remained the team’s top scoring options. Through three games, Johnson and Gordon are averaging 16.7 and 16.3 points per game, respectively.

The Badgers Win If:

If the Badgers are going to move on to Arlington, they will have to play smart on the offensive end and turn Arizona into a jump-shooting team. While Arizona is loaded with athletes, Johnson is really the team’s only polished offensive scorer. By being patient on the offensive end, avoiding turnovers and taking high-percentage shots, the Badgers can limit Arizona’s opportunities in transition and force the Wildcats to try to manufacture points in the half court. When they are set on defense, the Badgers need to protect the paint and keep Arizona from getting to the rim and the foul line. If Wisconsin turns this game into a jump-shooting contest, they have the perimeter firepower to win the game.

The Wildcats Win If:

For the Wildcats to get by Wisconsin, they will have to use their defense to fuel their offense. While Johnson is really the only player that can consistently create his own shot, Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are very athletic at the forward spots and T.J. McConnell and Gabe York can both knock down spot-up 3-pointers. If the Wildcats can generate turnovers and contested shots, they can get out in transition and either get to the rim or find open shooters. When Arizona does have to play in the half court, Johnson has to play well and know when to look for his shot and when to try to create for his teammates. In the end, the Wildcats win this game if their defense dictates the action.

Bottom Line:

Although Wisconsin comes into the game looking like the more impressive team, game-to-game matchups are always crucial. The Badgers were able to use their versatile array of shooters to spread the floor and shred Baylor’s zone last round, but they won’t find as much breathing room against the athletic defense of the Wildcats. In fact, the only time Arizona has struggled this season is when they have had struggled on offense against up-tempo teams, and even in losses to UCLA, Oregon and Arizona State, they held their opponents to well below their season scoring averages. Wisconsin does have a decent amount of offensive firepower, but the Badgers aren’t a fast-paced, high-scoring team. Arizona’s defense is going to be able to force contested shots all night, while the game will likely be close because Wisconsin is a decent defensive team in its own right, the Wildcats edge in athleticism will allow them to grind out another win and move on.

Prediction: Arizona Wildcats (-3) Cover the Spread

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