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Week 13 Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/5/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Monday Night NFL Week 14 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 12/5/11: It isn’t exactly a marquee matchup, but the San Diego Chargers (4-7) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) will meet Monday night. The Jaguars have struggled most of the year and fired long-time coach Jack Del Rio earlier in the week. Meanwhile six straight losses have sent the Chargers from first to worst in the AFC West and have Norv Turner likely on the way out as coach. Both teams are already looking towards next season, but the Monday night stage is always a nice motivating factor. As they break in a new coach, Jacksonville is a three-point underdog at home.

SBG Global Sportsbook

While both teams have been equally bad on the field, they couldn’t be more different offensively. The Chargers have a pass-first attack that ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank dead last in terms of passing yards and lean heavily on the running game. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, but while San Diego ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored, Jacksonville ranks dead last at just 12.5 per contest.

For the Chargers, the key to victory will be stopping Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He leads the AFC with 1,040 rushing yards, and the San Diego defense ranks outside the top 20 in terms of stopping the run. That being said, there is a difference in allowing rushing yards and allowing rushing touchdowns. Despite the yardage he has piled up, Jones-Drew has managed just five touchdowns. Teams stack the box in the red zone, forcing the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has been unable to deliver thus far and is completing just 48.5 percent of his passes. San Diego will likely follow the same formula Monday night.

Although the Jacksonville offense has been terrible when it comes to putting points on the board, the conservative approach has helped the Jaguars win the time of possession battle and keep their defense fresh. In fact, Jacksonville ranks fifth in the NFL in terms of points allowed, giving up just 18.2 per contest. On the downside, the unit hasn’t been great at forcing turnovers or pressuring opposing quarterbacks. If the Jaguars are going to win, the defense is going to have to carry the load. The offense needs a short field to be effective, which means the defense will have to make some big plays.

The X-factor in the game will likely be San Diego QB Philip Rivers. After reaching elite status at the position in recent years, Rivers has regressed this season. He has thrown an abysmal 17 interceptions and has lost six fumbles as well. As long as he is averaging more than two turnovers per game, the Chargers are going to continue to struggle winning games. If he can limit his mistakes, San Diego’s talent on offense should give the Chargers the edge. After all, this team does have tight end Antonio Gates, receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Ryan Matthews.

As bad as the Chargers have been during their six-game losing streak, they are still the same team that started the year 4-1 and lost to the undefeated Green Bay Packers by just seven points. The Jaguars just don’t have enough weapons on offense or an opportunistic defense that can take advantage of the turnover prone Rivers. It will likely be a result of what Jacksonville can’t do more than what the San Diego can do, but the Chargers should still come away with a road win in this one.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers (-3) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: San Diego -3

SBG Global Sportsbook

Week 13 NFL Football: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Date: 12/5/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: San Diego -3 Total: Over/Under 38.5

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Week 13 Sunday Night NFL Picks: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/4/11

Week 13 Free NFL Picks: Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NFL Week 13 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC 12/4/11: A pair of NFC playoff contenders will go head to head Sunday night when the Detroit Lions (7-4) visit the Superdome to face the New Orleans Saints (8-3). The teams are heading in opposite directions heading into the matchup, with the Saints winning three straight and the Lions dropping four of their last six after a 5-0 start. In the always tight playoff battle, both sides need to win Sunday. As one of the best home teams in the NFL, the Saints are 8 ½-point favorites.

SBG Global Sportsbook

The headline leading up to the game has been the suspension of Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. After stopping a Green Bay offensive lineman last Thursday, Suh will miss the Lions’ next two games. Suh is the leader of a fierce defensive line for Detroit, and putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks has been the cornerstone of the Lions’ defense. If the pass rush falters in Suh’s absence, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees should pick apart a mediocre Detroit secondary.

After all, New Orleans owns the top-ranked passing attack in the NFL at 324.2 yards per game. Brees has thrown 27 touchdowns and is one pace to shatter Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a single season. He has a variety of firepower at his disposal, making the Saints’ passing attack one of the most complex systems in the league. Tight end Jimmy Graham has been unstoppable thanks to his combination of size and speed, and running back Darren Sproles has given teams fits out of the backfield. Throw in the reliable Marques Colston and Lance Moore at receiver, and it is easy to understand why Brees’ numbers are MVP worthy.

Of course, Detroit can throw the ball as well, ranking sixth in the NFL in passing yards. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has excelled in his first full season, throwing for more than 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. He gets a shot at a New Orleans’ defense that has struggled defending the pass, pressuring quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. Stafford should have the opportunity to put up some points and keep pace with Brees and company. However, Stafford will have to overcome a recent slump to do so. He has thrown nine interceptions in the last three games, and if he gives the Saints extra possessions Sunday night, the Lions could get blown out.

In a game between two of the best passing attacks in the NFL, the X-factor could end up being the running game for both sides. Using the trio of Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Sproles, the Saints have been the eighth-best rushing team this season. The balance makes Brees even more dangerous by forcing opposing defenses to honor the run, which keeps the pressure off Brees. Meanwhile, the Lions have had injuries to running backs Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure and Kevin Smith, leaving the offense more or less one dimensional. As a result, defenses have been able to blitz and hit Stafford on a regular basis, leading to a lot of the turnovers that have plagued the Lions in recent weeks.

There is a good chance that the Lions are walking into a buzz saw Sunday night. The Saints are healthy and firing on all cylinders, and more importantly, they are scoring more than 40 points per game at home. Meanwhile, Detroit is missing its best defender and is struggling to find a rhythm on offense. The New Orleans defense isn’t good enough to completely shutdown Stafford, but the Saints are too good on offense for the Lions to keep pace.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-8 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New Orleans -8.5

Week 13 NFL Football: Detroit @ New Orleans
Date: 12/4/011
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC
Vegas Odds Favorite: New Orleans -8.5 | Total: Over/Under 53.5

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