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Tag Archive | "Thursday Night Football Picks"

2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders Predictions – Week 14 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 14 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/6/2012: Heading into Thursday night’s meeting with division rival Oakland, the Denver Broncos (9-3) have already wrapped up the AFC West. In fact, they have as many wins as the other three teams combined. The dismal 3-9 record of the Raiders has contributed to Denver running away with the division, and while the Broncos bring a seven-game winning in streak in the matchup, Oakland is mired in a five-game losing streak. Given the disparity in the records, it is not surprising to see Denver being favored by 10 points on the road.

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The offseason addition of Peyton Manning has paid huge dividends for Denver on both sides of the ball. Manning is currently second in the NFL in quarterback rating and tied for second with 29 touchdowns while Denver owns the seventh-best passing attack and ranks third in points per game. Demaryius Thomas has emerged as Manning’s top target, but slot options Eric Decker and Brandon Stokley have seen plenty of looks, as well. Defensively, Manning’s ability to get the Broncos early leads has allowed Denver to unleash its pass rush. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil lead a unit that ranks second in the NFL with 38.0 sacks. More importantly, the Broncos rank sixth against the pass, seventh against the run and ninth in points allowed. Plain and simple, Denver is one of the most balanced teams in the league this year.

Led by quarterback Carson Palmer, Oakland actually owns the eighth-best passing attack. Palmer has 20 touchdowns and more than 3,500 yards on the year, but he also has 13 interceptions. Outside of Palmer, not much has gone right for the Raiders. An injury to running back Darren McFadden has resulted in the Raiders ranking 29th in rushing. Thanks to a lack of balance and turnovers, they are scoring less than 20 points per game. Meanwhile, Oakland’s defense has been atrocious. The Raiders are allowing a league-high 31.3 points per game, and they rank 25th against the pass and 28th against the run.

The Broncos Win If:

With a dominant offense and stingy defense, it isn’t a secret why the Denver has been so successful this season. In the few games that the Broncos have struggled, they have fallen behind early and opponents have been able to control the clock. Facing a terrible Oakland defense, opportunities should be available for Manning and the offense to put points on the board early. If they take advantage, the Broncos can then turn their pass rush loose against Palmer as the Raiders try to catch up. As long as Denver can avoid a slow start against, the Broncos are going to be in great position to turn this game into a blowout.

The Raiders Win If:

There is no denying that Oakland is facing an uphill battle in this one, but avoiding an early deficit will go a long way to leveling the playing field. Oakland is relies too much on Palmer and the passing attack as it is, and if they Raiders are forced into obvious passing situations on top of that, Denver’s pass rush is going to flatten Palmer. If Oakland can find just enough of a ground game to keep the Broncos’ defense honest, Palmer has the speedy targets available at receiver to hit some big plays. With little defensive support, outscoring the Broncos is basically the only option for Oakland. The only way that has a chance of happening is if the Raiders can protect Palmer if he responds with a big game.

Bottom Line:

On one hand, Denver is on a roll. The Broncos have won seven straight games and already clinched the AFC West. On the flip side, they have won just one of their last five games by more than eight points, and 10 points is a fairly large spread for a road team to cover. That being said, it is hard to ignore Denver’s 37-6 demolition of Oakland earlier in the year. To make matters worse, the Raiders weren’t even competitive despite playing turnover-free football. Manning simply picked apart the porous Oakland secondary, and Denver’s pass rush gave Palmer no chance at completing the deep balls that can make the Raiders’ offense dangerous. Manning is still dialed heading into the rematch, and with Oakland having next to nothing as far as a running game is concerned, Miller, Dumervil are going to be in Palmer’s face all night. The Broncos might not win be 31 points, but they should win comfortably against an overmatched Oakland bunch.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (-10) Cover the Spread

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Denver -10
Total: Over/Under 48.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Predictions – Week 13 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 12 NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/29/2012: For the last several seasons New Orleans and Atlanta have been battling for supremacy in the NFC South. There has been no such battle this year as the Falcons (10-1) have basically wrapped up the division as they prepare to host the New Orleans Saints (5-6). That being said, this game isn’t a slam dunk for the home team. After all, Atlanta’s only blemish this year was a 31-27 loss to the Saints a few weeks ago, and New Orleans has won five of its last seven games after starting the year 0-4. As a result, the Falcons are favored Thursday, but only by three points.

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Both teams are powered by high-scoring, pass-first offenses. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan leads the second-ranked passing attack, and he has thrown for more than 3,400 yards while completing 68.5 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, New Orleans QB Drew Brees has topped 3,300 yards for the fifth-ranked passing attack and leads the NFL with 31 touchdown passes. Both players have plenty of weapons to work with. Atlanta has a pair of explosive receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones to go along with the tight end Tony Gonzalez. New Orleans counters with receivers Marques Colston and Lance Moore, along with tight end Jimmy Graham and versatile running back Darren Sproles. With all the firepower, it is no surprise that both teams rank in the top 10 in the league in points per game.

Defensively, Atlanta has allowed a lot of yardage to opponents, but the Falcons have been a bend-but-don’t-break unit all year. Despite ranking outside the top 10 against both the run and the pass, Atlanta is allowing less than 20 points per game. New Orleans on the other hand has been atrocious on defense. The Saints enter Thursday’s matchup ranked 30th against the pass and dead last against the run while allowing the fifth-most points per game in the league.

The Saints Win If:

Shockingly, the Saints’ ground game played a big part in their victory over Atlanta earlier in the month. The Saints ran 29 times for 148 yards, averaging more than five yards per carry. If New Orleans is able to establish a bit of a ground game once again, it will make the Saints’ passing attack that much harder for Atlanta to stop. Not to mention to the fact that a strong running game will force the Falcons’ linebackers to inch closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up space for Graham to work. Atlanta didn’t have an answer for the Saints’ tight end in the first meeting, and if he has another big game, there is no reason Brees and company can’t outscore the Falcons a second time.

The Falcons Win If:

When the Falcons lost to the Saints earlier this year, they piled up plenty of yardage, including more than 400 yards through the air. However, the Falcons were unable to finish off drives with touchdowns and settled for three field goals that ultimately cost them the game. Facing a New Orleans defense that has been gashed by just about every team it has faced, Ryan and company have to polish of scoring drives this time around. Defensively, Atlanta has to limit the production of Graham. He killed the Falcons to the tune of 146 yards and two scores in the first meeting, and as San Francisco showed last weekend, slowing down Graham goes a long way to slowing down the Saints. The game figures to be high scoring, but if Atlanta get six points instead of three on a consistent basis and keeps Graham in check, the Falcons can get revenge on their division rivals.

Bottom Line:

The bounty scandal and the loss of coach Sean Payton definitely took its toll on New Orleans to start the year, but since their 0-4 start, the Saints’ only two losses have come to division leaders Denver and San Francisco. The defense is still a mess, but Brees and the offense can win a shootout against any team in the NFL. Atlanta’s similar offensive philosophy actually plays to the strength of New Orleans, and rather than controlling clock and keeping Brees on the sidelines, the Falcons will be looking to score a bunch of points, as well. The Saints showed earlier this month that they can outscore the Falcons, even if Ryan has a monster game. Another back-and-forth, high-scoring affair should be on tap Thursday, and that is exactly the type of game New Orleans is built to win.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (+3.5) Cover the Spread

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Atlanta -3.5
Total: Over/Under 55
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Predictions – Week 11 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 11 NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/15/2012: In the AFC East, there are the New England Patriots and then everybody else. Two of the teams in the latter category will square off Thursday night when the Miami Dolphins (4-5) go on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-6). While neither team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, these teams are already playing for next season.

Offensively, both of those teams have limitations. Miami is starting rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and while he has shown flashes of his talent, he has just five touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. Meanwhile, running back Reggie Bush hasn’t been able to find the consistency that allowed him to top 1,000 yards last season. The end result has been an offense that ranks outside the top 15 in both rushing and passing. Buffalo at least ranks in the top 10 in rushing, but thanks to a struggling passing attack led by turnover-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, consistent scoring has been tough for the Bills to find this season.

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On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has been a disaster. High-priced free agent Mario Williams has done nothing to bolster the defensive front, and if anything, the Bills are even worse than they were last season. Buffalo currently ranks dead last in scoring defense and dead last in rushing defense. Miami on the other hand ranks in the top five against the end run, and defensive end Cameron Wake is one of the better edge rushers in the league. Overall, the Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in scoring defense, but a suspect secondary that has allowed some big plays has caused problems at times.

The Dolphins Win If:

Buffalo has the worst scoring defense in the NFL and the worst rushing defense. Miami has to take advantage and establish a running game that has been mediocre for most of the year. If Bush has a big game and is able to consistently move the chains, Miami will be able to mask its issues at the QB spot and put points on the board. Defensively, the Dolphins need to limit Buffalo’s big plays in the passing game. If Miami has to play from behind and out the game in the hands of Tannehill, the Dolphins are going to be in trouble. If they control the tempo of the game on the ground on other hand, they are going to be in good shape.

The Bills Win If:

While Buffalo’s run defense has been horrible, the offense does have its share of weapons. Facing a Miami team that doesn’t have much of a passing game, getting out to an early lead will be crucial. If the Bills can put the Dolphins in an early hole, Miami will be forced to abandon the running game, eliminating Buffalo’s biggest defensive deficiency. More importantly, putting Miami in an early hole will force Tannehill and the passing game to try to win the game. If this game becomes a high-scoring game decided by quarterback play, the Bills will have a huge advantage,

Bottom Line:

Believe or not, an injury to Buffalo running back Fred Jackson might end up being the reason the Bills win this game. Spiller is averaging an incredible 7.3 yards per carry this year, and he is a much more explosive weapon in both the running game and passing game. Buffalo’s biggest friend in this matchup could be some early points, and having Spiller on the field more often will only increase the Bills’ chances of hitting some big plays and putting points on the board. Meanwhile, Bush and the Miami offense have been inconsistent all year and are coming off a horrible three-point performance against a Tennessee defense that has been just as bad as Buffalo. Neither team is great, but Miami isn’t going to be able to muster enough offense with a rookie QB and an inconsistent running game to take down the Bills on the road.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-3) Cover the Spread

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Buffalo -3
Total: Over/Under 45
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions – Week 10 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 10 NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/8/2012: Both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars have drafted what they hope will be franchise quarterbacks the past two seasons. At 1-7, year two of the Blaine Gabbert experiment continues to go poorly for Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is sitting at 5-3 with rookie Andrew Luck under center, and the No. 1 overall pick has already set a rookie record for most passing yards in a single game and has tied the record for most 300-plus yard performances by a rookie. Needless to say, Indianapolis has to be feeling a lot better about its decision than Jacksonville does about the choice it made two years ago, and the two teams are headed in opposite directions as they prepare to meet Thursday night. The Colts have won three straight games to climb into the playoff conversation while the Jaguars have dropped five straight and are looking like the frontrunner for next year’s No. 1 pick. Not surprisingly, Indianapolis is a three-point favorite on the road.

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The two teams are also polar opposites in terms of offensive production. Luck has the Indianapolis passing game firing on all cylinders, ranking sixth in the NFL. Receiver Reggie Wayne has been on the best players at his position, and rookies T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen have made a surprisingly quick impact. On the flip side, Jacksonville has the worst passing offense in the NFL and ranks 28th in rushing. Granted, an injury to star back Maurice Jones-Drew has hurt the Jaguars ground attack, but the scoreboard doesn’t lie. Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 14.6 points.

Defensively, neither side looks great on paper. Both teams rank among the bottom 10 in the NFL in points allowed, and Jacksonville does rank 25th or worse against both the run and pass. Indianapolis on the other hand has shown signs of improvement. Pass rushing specialist Robert Mathis has gotten healthy in recent weeks, and the Colts have responded by allowing 20 points or less in each of their last three games.

The Colts Win If:

Plain and simple, the Jaguars are a terrible offensive team. If the Colts can turn Thursday’s contest into a high-scoring game, they are going to be in the driver’s seat. Luck does have to make sure he doesn’t get too aggressive against a weak Jacksonville secondary and take unnecessary risks, but as long as the Indianapolis doesn’t stop itself, the Colts are going to score points. Meanwhile, the improving Indianapolis defense just needs to keep the momentum going. As long as the Colts take away any big plays from the Jaguars’ offense, Gabbert and company are to have a hard time generating any consistent scoring.

The Jaguars Win If:

When the Jaguars went into Indianapolis earlier in the year and earned what remains their only win of the year, they did it on the strength of two big plays. Gabbert connected on an 80-yard touchdown pass, Jones-Drew ripped off a 59-yard touchdown run, and the Jaguars didn’t have any turnovers. Jacksonville will need to follow a similar recipe for success this time around to make up for an offense that can’t generate consistent yards or afford to give up any easy scores to the opposition. The Jaguars can’t win a shootout, but if they can keep the score around the 20-point mark, they have already shown they can hit the one or two plays needed to pull out a win.

Bottom Line:

Jacksonville hasn’t scored more than 23 points all year and has scored 15 points or less five times. Yes, the Jaguars did go into Indianapolis and knock off the Colts in Week 3, but they haven’t won a game since while Luck and company have gone 4-1 since the loss. More importantly, Jacksonville will be without the services of Jones-Drew this weekend, and he was an integral part of the Jaguars’ ability to control the clock and keep the ball out of Luck’s hands. Meanwhile, Indianapolis’ defense is healthy and playing the best it has all season, and Luck has thrown for at least 280 yards in four of his last five games. Plain and simple, the Colts are healthy and playing well while the Jaguars are slumping and missing their only true offensive weapon. Indianapolis gets some revenge and picks up a win on the road.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (-3) Cover the Spread

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3.5
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Predictions – Week 9 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 9 NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/1/2012: Not all primetime games in the NFL are a battle of heavyweights, and Thursday night’s meeting between the San Diego Chargers (3-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) is a reminder of that fact. After opening the year with a 3-1 record, the Chargers are riding a three-game losing streak heading into Thursday’s game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have dropped four straight. Something has to give when these AFC West rivals meet for the second time this year. San Diego knocked of Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium 37-20 in late September, and the Chargers are eight-point favorites at home in the rematch.

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Neither team has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball. San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers doesn’t look like the same player he was three years ago, and running back Ryan Matthews has yet to become the player the Chargers traded up in the draft to take. The end result has been an offense that ranks 20th or worse in both passing yards and rushing yards and is in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Of course, Kansas City has been even worse when it comes to putting points on the board. Despite owning the third-best rushing attack led by Jamaal Charles, a QB carousel between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn has resulted in the Chiefs averaging the third-fewest points in the NFL.

The story isn’t much better on defense either, but thanks to a stout rushing defense that ranks second in the NFL, San Diego does rank ninth in scoring defense. That being said, the Chargers’ secondary has been vulnerable, and they have been unable to force many turnovers or pressure opposing QBs. However, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t been able to do any of those things either, and worse yet, the Chiefs haven’t been able to keep opponents out of the end zone. Entering Thursday’s game, Kansas City owns the third-worst scoring defense and is allowing almost 30 points a game.

The Chiefs Win If:

Kansas City’s lone bright spot this season has been its rushing attack, and Charles is the type of back that can turn any carry into a score. He needs to have a big game running the ball Thursday if the Chiefs want to put points on the board. Meanwhile, Cassel, Quinn or whoever ends up under center needs to avoid turning the ball over. Kansas City isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to miss out on points or give San Diego good field position because of their own mistakes. For the record, Kansas City actually outgained the Chargers in their earlier meeting but handed away the game thanks to six turnovers. The bottom line is that if the Chiefs establish the run and can ride Charles up and down the field, they can put up enough points to outscore a Chargers’ offense that doesn’t exactly have a lot of weapons either.

The Chargers Win If:

Corey Liuget, Aubrayo Franklin and the rest of the San Diego defensive line have been stout all year long, and if they deliver again Thursday, the Chargers are going to be in great shape. Kansas City’s passing situation under center is a joke, and if Charles is taken out of the picture, the Chiefs are going to struggle to score points. Meanwhile, San Diego needs to establish a ground game of its own against a weak Kansas City run defense in order to set up Rivers with opportunities to find Robert Meachem and Malcolm Floyd in down the field in the play-action passing game. If the Chargers stop the run on defense and use the run to open up their big play passing game on offense, the Chiefs won’t be able to keep pace.

Bottom Line:

While the Chargers can’t count on the Chiefs shooting themselves in the foot to the tune of six turnovers two games in a row, they can count on poor play from whoever is under center for Kansas City. As a result, an already stingy San Diego run defense should be able to focus in on Charles and the Kansas City ground attack. The Chiefs haven’t been scoring anyway, and they certainly won’t be doing much scoring if their best player is held in check. Meanwhile, San Diego’s own offense should look a little better this time around now that Matthews is starting at running back. The former first-round pick was essentially benched for most of the first meeting with Kansas City as punishment for a red zone fumble. With Matthews in the backfield from the start, the Chargers will have the balance needed to capitalize on the struggling Kansas City defense. Throw in the fact that San Diego is at home, and the Chargers will pick up a win against one of the NFL’s worst teams.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers (-7) Cover the Spread

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: San Diego -7
Total: Over/Under 42
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings Odds and Predictions – Free Sunday Night Football Picks 10/25/2012

2012 Week 8 NFL Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/25/2012: Two teams heading in opposite directions will go head to head Thursday night when the Minnesota Vikings (5-2) play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4). While the Vikings have emerged as surprise contenders in the loaded NFC North, the Buccaneers are struggling just to stay in touch with the undefeated Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. Not surprisingly, Minnesota is a 6 ½-point favorite in this matchup.

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Offensively, the two teams are polar opposites. Minnesota uses a run-first attack led by star running back Adrian Peterson. The Vikings rank seventh in the NFL in rushing, and Peterson is averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry less than a year removed from knee surgery. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has slowly abandoned their running game in recent weeks in favor of a pass-heavy attack. The results have been promising as quarterback Josh Freeeman has found a groove with receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, and the Buccaneers are averaging 32.0 points per game in their past two contests.

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota has been solid, ranking just outside the top 10 against the run and the pass. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been excellent against the run and horrific against the pass. Entering Thursday’s game, the Buccaneers own the third-best rushing defense in the NFL but rank 31st against the pass, allowing more than 320 yards per game through the air.

The Buccaneers Win If:

Tampa Bayhasn’t really had much balance from the running game this year, but that shouldn’t be a big issue against Minnesota. The Vikings have been solid up front against the run, and while the secondary has been better, it is still just one year removed from allowing the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. If Freeman can continue to hook up with Jackson and Mike Williams for big plays in the passing game, Tampa Bay should be able to put some points on the board. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ third-ranked rush defense needs to keep Peterson in check and force Ponder to carry the load. If this game becomes a battle between Freeman and Ponder, Tampa Bay should prevail.

The Vikings Win If:

Facing a porous Tampa Bay secondary, Minnesota needs to use its passing game to soften up a stingy Buccaneers’ rush defense. If Ponder can connect on a few big plays early in the game and stretch the field, it will make life much easier on Peterson. The Vikings don’t need to abandon their run-first attack, but they don’t want to play completely to the strength of the Tampa Bay defense either. On defense, Minnesota needs Jared Allen and company to pressure the pocket. If the Vikings can force Freeman into quick throws and eliminate the deep ball, the Buccaneers are going to have trouble establishing consistent offense. If Minnesota can eliminate the big play on defense while hitting on a few of its own on offense, the Vikings can score the win.

Bottom Line:

Although Tampa Bay definitely has some issues on both sides of the ball, the Buccaneers actually match up fairly well with the Vikings. Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Buccaneers are particularly tough against inside, power running backs like Peterson. Meanwhile, Ponder has been inconsistent as a passer and has struggled to complete longer passes. Not to mention the fact that he is coming off a game when he threw for less than 60 yards. The Buccaneers should be able to limit Minnesota’s biggest strength while having their own weaknesses in the secondary somewhat protected. More importantly, the Freeman-to-Jackson connection should stay hot against an average Vikings’ secondary that hasn’t had to face many strong passing games. Even if the Buccaneers don’t pull the upset, they should be able to cover the spread.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6 ½) Cover the Spread

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Minnesota -6.5
Total: Over/Under 43
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Predictions – Week 7 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 7 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/18/2012: A crucial matchup in the surprisingly stout NFC West is on tap for Thursday night when the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) go on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers (4-2). After dominating the division last year and nearly reaching the Super Bowl, San Francisco was expected to cruise to a second straight NFC West crown. However, the winner of Thursday’s game is only assured of a tie atop the standings depending on what the Arizona Cardinals do this weekend. Overall, all four teams in the NFC West are at or above .500 entering Week 7, and every win is important, especially one within the division. Playing at home, the 49ers are seven-point favorites.

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On the field, the teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams rely heavily on the run game on offense, and both have excellent all-around defenses. San Francisco actually owns the top rushing attack in the NFL, while Seattle has the seventh-best run game led by the NFC’s leading rusher Marshawn Lynch. Defensively, the Seahawks are allowing the second-fewest points per game, while the 49ers rank third in scoring defense. In terms of total yards, San Francisco and Seattle rank first and fourth, respectively. Needless to say, this game is going to be a tough, physical battle in the trenches with plenty of hard hits being dished out by both sides.

The Seahawks Win If:

With rookie quarterback Russell Wilson under center, the Seahawks need this game to be played at a slow pace and in an ugly style more so than the 49ers. Seattle’s defense currently ranks second against the run, and the unit will need to shut down Frank Gore and the San Francisco ground game in this one. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ own running game has to take some of the pressure off Wilson. Lynch doesn’t need a lot of big runs, but he will need to be able to keep the clock running and keep Seattle in manageable third down situations. If Seattle can hold the 49ers somewhere around the 20-point mark and use its defense to control field possession, Wilson has already shown throughout the year that he can make the one or two big plays needed to win a close game.

The 49ers Win If:

The game plan for San Francisco on defense is simple. If they shut down Lynch and the Seattle running game, the Seahawks are going to struggle to score points and even move the ball down the field. Offensively, the 49ers have to make sure not to play at Seattle’s pace. Granted, San Francisco is a run-first team, as well, but quarterback Alex Smith has been a solid counterpunch this season. If Smith can hit a few big plays early in the game and get the 49ers the lead, the San Francisco defense will be able to pin its ears back and attack Wilson. If the 49ers can force the Seahawks to abandon their running game and have to play from behind, Seattle doesn’t have the consistency in the passing game to compete.

Bottom Line:

Coming off their first game of the season, the 49ers should be focused for Thursday’s showdown with a division rival. More importantly, they have a more balanced offense and an equally stout defense going against a Seahawks’ team that is 0-2 on the road against NFC West opponents this season. However, Seattle has also shown it can grind things out against any opponent. The Seahawks have won three of their four games by four points or less, including wins over Green Bay and New England, and they haven’t lost a game by more than six points. While Wilson and company don’t have enough firepower to knock of the 49ers at home, Settle’s defense and commitment to the run game will allow them to keep things close and cover the spread.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (+7) Cover the Spread

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: San Francisco -7
Total: Over /Under 38
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans Predictions – Week 6 Thursday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 6 NFL Thursday Night Football Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/11/2012: Not all primetime matchups in the NFL feature elite teams, and Thursday night’s meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) and Tennessee Titans (1-4) is an example of that. While Pittsburgh has battled injuries on both sides of the ball, the Titans have been just plain bad on both sides of the ball. However, the Steelers have looked bad in their two road games, and they have yet to win away from home this season. That being said, Pittsburgh is still the much better team on paper, and despite the road issues, the Steelers are 5 ½-point favorites at Tennessee.

SBG Global Sportsbook

Offensively, the Steelers have relied mainly on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger thus far to the tune of the 11th-best passing attack in the league. However, starting running back Reshard Mendenhall looked strong in his return from knee surgery last weekend, and Pittsburgh’s offense will have more balance in the coming weeks than it has all season. Tennessee, on the other hand, probably won’t be writing the ship in the near future. Starting quarterback Jake Locker is out until the end of October, and the passing attack was ranked in the middle of the road when he was in anyway. Meanwhile, the Titans rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards thanks to the continued poor play of running back Chris Johnson.

Sadly, the Titans have been even worse on defense, and they currently ranked 25th against the pass and 28th against the run. Pittsburgh’s defense, meanwhile, has remained solid despite the rash of injuries. In fact, the Steelers rank third against the pass, 11th against the run and fifth in total yards allowed. If there is a weakness for Pittsburgh defense, it has been the unit’s play on the road. In two road games this season, the Steelers have allowed a combined 65 points.

The Steelers Wins If:

With speedy receivers Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace to work with, it is going to be tempting for Pittsburgh to let Roethlisberger throw early and often against the porous Tennessee secondary. However, Mendenhall is back, and the Titans’ run defense is even worse. The Steelers just need to maintain a balanced approach on offense to make sure Roethlisberger stays upright, and they should carve up Tennessee for plenty of points. Defensively, the Steelers just have to limit any big plays from the Titans’ passing attack. Tennessee hasn’t shown the ability to strong together consistent offense all year so as long as Pittsburgh doesn’t allow any cheap scores, this game could turn into a rout.

The Titans Wins If:

Tennessee’s lone win was a 44-41 overtime shootout against Detroit when it scored as pair of special teams touchdowns. The Titans are going to have to get creative again in this one if they want to manufacture enough points to win. With Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu likely out, along with pass rusher LeMarr Woodley, Tennessee needs to take some shots down the field in the passing game. The Titans don’t have enough firepower to employ a conventional game plan and hang with Pittsburgh, but if they hit a few big plays and get an early lead, they have a chance to pull the upset at home.

Bottom Line:

There is nothing like the Tennessee defense to help cure Pittsburgh’s road woes. The Titans have allowed at least 30 points in all five games this season, and with Mendenhall back to power the running game, the Steelers’ offense is going to thrive. Meanwhile, the injured-plagued defense should also benefit from a Tennessee offense that can’t run the ball and has scored 14 points or less four times in five games. The Steelers might be an elite team in the NFL, but the Titans are a bad one. Even with home-field advantage, Tennessee just doesn’t have the talent to compete.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans (-5 ½) Cover the Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Pittsburgh -5.5
Total: Over /Under 42.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NFL Network

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2012 NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 10/4/2012

2012 NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/4/2012: A pair of NFC West rivals will go head to head Thursday night when the Arizona Cardinals visit the St. Louis Rams. While the 2-2 Rams have somewhat exceeded expectations under new coach Jeff Fisher, the 4-0 Cardinals are the early surprise of the 2012 season. Playing in a division that was supposed to be dominated by the San Francisco 49ers, both St. Louis and Arizona are right in the thick of things a fourth of the way through the year. Picking up a win within the division Thursday night would be big for either side. The Cardinals are one-point favorites.

SBG Global Sportsbook

On paper, it is amazing that these two teams have fared as well as they have. St. Louis and Arizona rank 20th or worse in the league in both rushing yards and passing yards, and the Cardinals actually rank 25th or worse in both categories. However, respectable defenses have allowed both sides to keep their games close, and timely plays have led to wins. There is a good chance that Thursday’s meeting ends up being a lower-scoring, close game that is decided by a few plays in the fourth quarter.

The Cardinals Win If:

Arizona’s defense has been stout at the line of scrimmage and made big play after big play, and that will have to continue Thursday. Defensive tackles Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell are one of the best duos on the interior in the NFL, and they have already helped the Cardinals hold the high-powered offenses of New England and Philadelphia to a combined 24 points. With the still unproven Sam Bradford at quarterback and a banged up Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Rams’ offense isn’t exactly scary. In other words, Arizona’s defense has the ability to control this game, and as long as QB Kevin Kolb doesn’t screw things up by turning the ball over, the Cardinals should be able to win with only a few scores of their own.

The Rams Win If:

Although the Rams have been terrible at stopping the run this year, they catch a break Thursday because Arizona basically has no running game. St. Louis has a solid secondary led by free agent acquisition Cortland Finnegan and a pass rush led by three former first-round picks, and the Rams should be able to keep Arizona’s mediocre offense pretty much in check. Scoring won’t be easy, but if Bradford doesn’t turn the ball over and connects on a few big plays with his young receivers, the defense should be able to do the rest. If St. Louis can get the lead early and turn its pass rush loose on Kolb, the Rams will the upper hand. The Rams’ ace in the hole in a close game could be rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein. He is 12-for-12 on the season and has hit four attempts from beyond 50 yards.

Bottom Line:

With struggling offenses on both sides, the battle for field position is going to be crucial. This could easily become a game of field goals where one touchdown ends up tipping the scales. Arizona has the best offensive playmaker on the field in wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and the best defensive playmaker/kick returner in Patrick Peterson. These two players, along with a strong defense, are the reason why the Cardinals have been pulling out wins all year. The recipe for success will remain the same Thursday night against a St. Louis team that just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals (-1) Cover the Spread

New Parlay Odds at BetOnline

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Arizona -1.5
Total: Over/Under 39.5
Time: 8:25 PM EST on NFL NETWORK

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2012 NFL Picks: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Odds and Predictions – Free Thursday Night Football Picks 9/27/2012

2012 NFL Picks: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/27/2012: Thursday night’s meeting between the Cleveland Browns (0-3) and Baltimore Ravens (2-1) could be a painful reminder that not all rivalry games are necessarily competitive matchups. A natural rivalry is inevitable between two teams from the same division, especially when the Ravens’ franchise used to be in Cleveland less than two decades ago. However, these two teams couldn’t have different expectations in 2012. Baltimore is already looking like the best team in the AFC, while Cleveland is winless, inexperienced and looking like a potential candidate for the No. 1 pick in next April’s draft. Plain and simple, the Ravens should win this game. The question for bettors is whether or not they can cover the 12-point spread.

SBG Global Sportsbook

It’s tough to blame Cleveland for its struggles. After all, the Browns are starting a rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden and a rookie running back in Trent Richardson. Not to mention the fact that they have next to nothing as far as weapons at the wide receiver position. A respectable offensive line is the lone bright spot on an otherwise inexperienced offense. The production has been understandably unimpressive, and the Browns currently rank outside the top 20 in terms of rushing yards and passing yards and are averaging just 19.0 points per game.

On the plus side, the normally stingy Baltimore defense hasn’t quite been its typically elite self while dealing with the loss of sack master Terrell Suggs. Granted, the unit has had to face a pair of offenses ranked in the top 10 in terms of scoring in the first three games, but until the defense is back at full strength, Ray Lewis and company are more like a top-10 defense rather than the top-five group they are used to being. That being said, there is only so much damage Cleveland can do on offense when Richardson and the running game doesn’t have a reliable passing game to keep defenses honest. The Ravens’ defense might not be the scariest bunch in the NFL, but the unit is still more than capable of keeping a weak Cleveland offense in check to the tune of only 10-14 points.

The real deciding factor in whether or not Baltimore can cover the spread Thursday night is the play of the Browns’ defense. Despite giving up a ton of yardage, the unit has actually done a decent job of bending but not breaking. In fact, Cleveland hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points this season. However, the Browns were helped tremendously by a rash of Philadelphia turnovers in the season opener, and last weekend, Buffalo was forced to play their third-string running back. The best offense Cleveland has faced thus far was Cincinnati in Week 2, and in that matchup, the Browns surrendered 31 points. Their saving grace in that game was that the Bengals have a dreadful defense in their own right, allowing Cleveland to hang close.

That won’t be the case against Baltimore. The Ravens have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the NFL with Ray Rice leading an excellent running game and quarterback Joe Flacco leading a constantly improving passing attack. The emergence of second-year receiver Torrey Smith as a deep threat and tight end Dennis Pitta as an option over the middle of the field has really taken Baltimore’s offense to a new level. Last weekend’s 31-30 win against New England was a prime example of how far this offense has come.

In the end, the Ravens’ offense is too much for Cleveland’s defense to contain, and Baltimore’s defense is more than capable of keeping the Browns’ anemic offense in check. Rice, Flacco and the balanced Baltimore offense should have no problem putting up 30-plus points on their home field. Meanwhile, Cleveland will be lucky to put together a couple of scoring drivers. Do the math, and the Ravens should be able to cover the spread, even at 12 points.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-12) Cover the Spread

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Baltimore -11.5
Total: Over/Under 44
Time: 8:20 PM EST on NFL Network

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