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Tag Archive | "Sunday NFL Picks"

2012 NFL Picks: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Odds and Predictions – Week 17 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 17 NFL Picks: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/30/2012: For the second year in a row, the Dallas Cowboys (8-7) will go on the road in the regular season finale with a chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs in a winner-take-all matchup with a division rival. They squandered the opportunity last season against the New York Giants, and this time around, they will face a 9-6 Washington Redskins team that will be looking to claim the division crown and playoff spot for themselves. The season is on the line for both teams, and you won’t find a regular season game that has more at stake. Washington already went on the road and knocked off Dallas earlier this season, and playing at home, the Redskins are three-point favorites.

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Although he always seems to be the subject of criticism, quarterback Tony Romo has the Dallas passing attack ranked third in the NFL this season. He has thrown for more than 4,600 yards to go along with 26 scores despite a running game that ranks dead last in yards per game. Dez Bryant has emerged as his main target, and the receiver has 12 scores and more than 1,300 yards entering Sunday’s game. Jason Witten also remains a reliable option for Romo, and his 102 catches this year are already a single-season record for tight ends. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has been on a downward spiral throughout the year and now ranks outside the top 15 against the pass and outside the top 20 against the run. Overall, the Cowboys are allowing almost 25 points per game to opponents.

For Washington, a pair of rookies has keyed the NFL’s top-ranked rushing attack and the fourth-best scoring offense. Quarterback Robert Griffin III has done a lot of the damage, throwing for 3,100 yards and 20 touchdowns and running for more than 700 more while committing just seven total turnovers. However, fellow rookie Alfred Morris has done plenty of work, as well. He is currently fourth in the NFL with more than 1,400 yards and has found the end zone 10 times. On the flip side, the Washington defense has been decimated by injuries and is missing its two best pass rushers. As a result, the Redskins currently rank 30th in the NFL when it comes to stopping the pass. That being said, the unit does rank fifth against the run and is in the middle of the pack in points allowed.

The Cowboys Win If:

Romo threw the ball all over the porous Washington secondary in the first meeting, but it wasn’t enough. If Dallas is going to reverse the outcome this time around, its defense is going to have to help out, as well. In particular, corners Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne have to win their battles one on one so the rest of the Cowboys defenders can commit to stopping Morris and Griffin on the ground. If Dallas can make slow down the Redskins’ rushing attack, it will go a long way to limiting the big play opportunities available to Griffin off of play action and other designed rollouts and scrambles. Offensively, the Cowboys can help their defense by controlling the clock a bit with DeMarco Murray and the ground game, but at the end of the day, Dallas only wins this game if its defense can keep Griffin and company from hitting big play after big play.

The Redskins Win If:

Just like in the first meeting, Washington’s offense needs to come out firing on all cylinders if it wants to complete the season sweep of Dallas. In particular, the Redskins need to make sure to maintain a healthy balance between Morris and Griffin on the ground and Griffin taking shots through the air. The Dallas defense looked lost and confused the first time around, and if Washington’s play calling stays unpredictable Sunday night, the Cowboys are going to be playing a guessing game once again. Meanwhile, the Washington defense needs to take advantage of the one-dimensional, pass-happy Dallas offense. The Redskins don’t have the secondary to shut down Romo, but by forcing a couple of turnovers, they can tip the scales in their favor in what should be another high-scoring affair.

Bottom Line:

The Cowboys had this exact same opportunity last year, and they promptly went on the road and got clobbered by the New York Giants 31-14. In fact, when is the last time you can remember Dallas winning any type of big game? These two teams already met once this season in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys lost 38-31 and were down 28-3 before they could blink. Romo threw for 441 yards and four scores in that meeting, and his team still lost. Even if he has another big game against the Washington secondary, the Dallas defense still has to slow down Griffin. This is the same Dallas defense that just got torched by Drew Brees and the Saints last weekend and has already been torched by Griffin and fellow rookie QB Nick Foles for more than 30 points in the past few weeks. All the talk leading up to this game has been about whether or not Romo can handle the pressure of a big stage. The real question is whether or not the Cowboys as a team can handle this stage, and the Dallas defense has shown no signs of being able to handle anything lately. Griffin and company outscore the Cowboys once again in a high-scoring shootout.

Prediction: Washington Redskins (-3) Cover the Spread

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Washington -3
Total: Over/Under 49
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – Week 16 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 16 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/23/2012: It is a December matchup that diehard football fans dream of. The NFC West leading San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) are on the road with a chance to clinch the division against a Seattle Seahawks (9-5) team that can secure a playoff spot with a victory of its own. The game is also a matchup of the two best defenses in the NFL, two of the best running games and two of the young, exciting QBs in the leagues. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers are expecting a tight one with the Seahawks favored by a single point at home.

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Defense has been the calling card of the 49ers all season, and they enter Sunday night’s game allowing a league-low 15.6 points per game and the second-fewest yards per game. The unit features stars like Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith, and San Francisco’s defense also ranks in the top five against the run and the pass. While the defense gets a lot of credit, the offense actually ranks in the top 10 in scoring, as well. Running back Frank Gore heads the second-best ground attack, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s scrambling ability has added a new dimension to the offense since taking over the starting job.

Seattle has followed a similar blueprint. The Seahawks’ defense is also allowing just 15.6 points per game, and the unit currently ranks in the top 10 against both the run and the pass and third in yards allowed overall. On the offensive side of the ball, Marshawn Lynch heads to the league’s third-best rushing attack. Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson continues to improve, and he has thrown for 21 touchdowns and more than 2,600 yards and added more than 400 yards on the ground. Thanks to the balance provided by Wilson, the Seahawks have scored a combined 108 points in their last two games and are up to 11th in points per game overall.

The 49ers Win If:

Points are likely going to be at a premium in this game, and Kaepernick is going to be San Francisco’s X-factor. If he can make a couple of big plays with his arm and his legs during the course of the game, the 49ers are going to be in good shape. However, if his inexperience shows through and he turns the ball over, San Francisco is going to have a hard time winning in Seattle. Defensively, the 49ers only real concern is containing Wilson outside of the pocket. Last but not least, kicker David Akers needs to overcome his recent struggles. He has already missed 10 kicks this year, and even one or two misses against Seattle could cost the 49ers a win. At the end of the day, San Francisco can win the game if Kaepernick outplays Wilson and Akers converts the chances he gets.

The Seahawks Win If:

In an ideal world, the Seahawks would establish Lynch and the ground game and simply use pound the ball on offense and rely on their stout defense. However, running straight at San Francisco is next to impossible, and Seattle’s ability to adjust and find different ways to score will determine whether or not they win the game. If Wilson is able to make a few big plays with his legs and hit a few big passes, Seattle is going to be in business. Defensively, the Seahawks need to make sure Kaepernick has to beat them with his arm and not his legs. If Seattle makes sure this game comes down to which QB can make more clutch throws, the efficiency and decision making of Wilson should put the Seahawks in the playoffs.

Bottom Line:

While it may not be the high-scoring rollercoaster that San Francisco endured against New England last week, the matchup against the Seahawks could produce a very different but equally entertaining brand of football. Both these teams punish opposing offenses with their hard-hitting defenses and both punish opposing defenses with their power running games. In the end it is strength against strength, but the fact that the game is in Seattle tips the scales in favor of the Seahawks. They simply play better on both sides of the ball when they are at home, and they have a 6-0 record to prove it. More importantly, Seattle has wins over New England and Green Bay at home and is allowing just 11.5 points per game on its home turf. Some of the best teams in the NFL have fallen to the Seahawks in Seattle, and the 49ers will become the latest victim in a hard-hitting, physical football game.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (-1) Cover the Spread

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seattle -3
Total: Over/Under 41
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – Week 15 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 15 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/16/2012: The playoffs don’t start for a few weeks, but Sunday night’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) and the New England Patriots (10-3) is a potential Super Bowl preview. Both teams were expected to be and have been among the best in the NFL since the start of the season, and anything less than a championship would be a disappointment for either side. The game is also a battle of a New England offense that leads the league in scoring and a San Francisco defense allowing the fewest points in the league. Playing in Foxboro and riding a seven-game winning streak, the Patriots are 4 ½-point favorites.

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The recipe for success has been simple for San Francisco. The 49ers pound the ball on the ground on offense and hit people in the mouth on defense, and they do both at an exceptional level. Running back Frank Gore leads the league’s second-best ground attack, and the scrambling ability of quarterback Colin Kaepernick has added a new dimension to a modest but efficient passing game. Defensively, San Francisco is allowing a league-low 14.2 points per game. They also rank second against both the run and the pass. Linebacker Patrick Willis and defensive tackle Justin Smith are among the stars of the unit that also features defensive end Aldon Smith, who is on pace to break the record for sacks in a single season.

Led by a surprisingly balanced attack, the New England offense is leading the NFL in points and yards per game. In fact, the Patriots’ 36.3 points per game average is a touchdown more than the next-closest team. Quarterback Tom Brady leads the fifth-ranked passing attack, and he has thrown 29 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season. Meanwhile, Stevan Ridley heads the eighth-best rushing attack, and he has 10 scores and has already topped 1,000 yards. The Patriots’ defense has been mediocre most of the year, but the unit has been opportunistic and improving. As a result, New England is actually leading the NFL in turnover differential and ranks in the top 10 against the run.

The 49ers Win If:

San Francisco isn’t going to win a shootout against many teams, especially against the offensive juggernaut that is New England. If the 49ers are going to go into to Foxboro and pull off an upset, they need to keep Brady and company on the sidelines as much as possible. Establishing Gore and the ground game will be crucial, and if San Francisco drastically wins the time-of-possession battle, it will limit the New England offense and allow its own defense to stay fresh. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers have to get physical with the Patriots. The only time Brady ever struggles is when he is facing a ton of pressure in the pocket and his receivers are getting jammed at the line, and San Francisco has the personnel to do both. Overall, the 49ers can win this game by controlling the clock and the line of scrimmage on both sides of the bll.

The Patriots Win If:

Points are the Patriots’ best friend in this matchup, and if New England’s offense comes out firing on all cylinders, the 49ers aren’t going to be able to keep up. Giving Brady time to throw will go a long way to a strong offensive showing, and if the New England offensive line wins the battle in the trenches, Brady has the weapons to carve up a stout San Francisco secondary. Defensively, nose tackle Vince Wilfork and the New England linebackers need to keep Gore and the 49ers’ ground attack in check. If the Patriots make San Francisco can’t control the clock and has to face a lot of third and longs, New England’s high-powered offense is going to eventually wear down the 49ers’ defense and put enough points on the board to pull away.

Bottom Line:

In many ways, this is a tough matchup for the 49ers. Yes, New England’s defense has been gashed at times this year, but the Patriots have given up most of their big plays through the air and have actually defended the run well. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s wants to run the ball as much as possible ad doesn’t have the explosive passing game needed to exploit the New England secondary. Granted, the 49ers’ defense can control just about any offense, but Brady and company are rolling right now. New England has scored at least 37 points in five of its last six games and has topped 40 points four times during the stretch. Combine New England’s solid rush defense with an offense that can pile up points on the ground and through the air, and there is only so much the 49ers’ defense is going to be able to do. The Patriots aren’t going to put 40-plus points on the board, but they aren’t going to get shut out either.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-4 ½) Cover the Spread

San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots
Line: New England Patriots -4.5
Total: Over/Under 47
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions – Week 14 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 14 NFL Picks: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/9/2012: A pair of NFC North rivals will go head to head Sunday night when the Detroit Lions (4-8) travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers (8-4). The teams are at opposite ends of the division with the Packers tied for the top spot while the Lions are sitting in the cellar. The game is a rematch of a November 18 meeting won by Green Bay 24-20 in Detroit. The Packers scored 10 points in the final two minutes to rally to win, and playing at home this time around, they are 6 ½-point favorites.

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Detroit’s offense revolves around throwing the ball, and quarterback Matthew Stafford currently heads the top-ranked passing attack in the NFL. Receiver Calvin Johnson is his top target, and while his 1,428 yards are the most in the league by a wide margin, the rest of the receiving options have been inconsistent. The same goes for the ground game where Mikel Leshoure is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and as a result, the Lions rank outside the top 10 in points per game. Detroit has struggled on defense, as well. The Lions rank outside the top 15 against both the run and the pass and are one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL, allowing more than 26 points per game. Detroit’s pass rush has been the biggest disappointment, ranking in the middle of the pack despite plenty of talent along the defensive line.

Led by defending MVP Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay has been a pass-first team, as well. Rodgers is leading the NFL in QB rating and is third in the league with 29 touchdowns despite the lack of a ground game and playing with a revolving group of receivers. This weekend’s game will be no exception as Jordy Nelson will be sidelined. The Green Bay defense will be dealing with injuries, as well. Corner Charles Woodson and pass rushing expert Clay Matthews will also be sidelined for a unit that has been mediocre against both the run and the pass. On the plus side, the Packers rank fourth in sacks.

The Lions Win If:

With Woodson on the sidelines, the Lions have no excuse not to look for Johnson early and often in the passing game. He had 143 yards and a score in the first meeting, and if he has another big game Sunday, Detroit should have plenty of chances to put points on the board. Stafford and company also have to limit turnovers. Detroit had four turnovers in its loss to Green Bay, including a pick-six, and allowed five sacks. If the Lions can nearly knock of the Packers despite having so many mistakes, there is no reason they can’t spring the upset if they can at least keep the turnovers and sacks to a reasonable number. Defensively, Detroit’s talented but underachieving defensive line needs to come to play. It is no secret that Green Bay throws the ball early and often, and if the Lions’ defense can get pressure on Rodgers, they can disrupt the Packers’ passing attack enough to give Stafford and the offense a chance to win the game.

The Packers Win If:

The Green Bay offense hasn’t been the high-powered scoring machine it was a year ago, and while the lack of a running game has been blamed, the Packers really didn’t run the ball well last year either. Pass protection and injuries to the wide receivers have been the real issue, but if the Green Bay offensive line can deliver a solid performance and Greg Jennings can return to form in his second game back from injury, everything else will fall into place. Jennings is a true No. 1 receiver, and while Nelson is out, the Packers’ offense should start to click again if Jennings is commanding double teams. Defensively, Green Bay just needs to repeat its effort from the first meeting with Detroit and pressure Stafford and the Lions’ offense into mistakes. If the Packers terrorize Stafford and start to find a rhythm on offense, they can sweep their division rival.

Bottom Line:

Yes, Detroit is mired in a four-game losing streak, but the Lions’ last three loses have all come by four points or less. More importantly, Detroit is catching the Packers at a time when their offense is a bit out of sync and their defense is banged up. There is a reason that Woodson, Matthews and Nelson are among the Green Bay stars targeting next weekend’s meeting with Chicago for their return. The meeting with the Bears will likely decide the NFC North, but while the Packers rest up for that crucial showdown, the Lions have the offensive firepower to make a compromised Green Bay defense pay. Granted, Rodgers is more than capable of pulling out another close win like he did when he led the Packers to a come-from-behind victory in Detroit earlier this year. However, look for a Lions’ bunch with nothing to lose to hang close with a Green Bay team that will likely be looking ahead to next weekend.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (+6 ½) Cover the Spread

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Green Bay Packers
Total: Over/Under 49
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Odds and Picks: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Predictions – Week 13 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 13 NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/2/2012: When the season began, many thought that Sunday night’s meeting between Philadelphia and Dallas would have serious playoff implications attached to it. However, the Eagles (3-8) enter the game in the middle of a seven-game losing streak and are out of postseason contention while the Cowboys (5-6) basically need to win all of their remaining games to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Needless to say, neither side has come close to living up to expectations, but Philadelphia has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL. Throw in the fact that the Eagles will be missing their starting quarterback, starting running back and top wide receiver, and it is easy to see why the Cowboys are 11-point favorites.

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Even when Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson were healthy, the Eagles’ offense was one of the worst in the NFL. Turnovers have plagued a unit that ranks 30th in scoring, averaging just 16.7 points per game. Philadelphia’s silver lining has been a rushing attack that ranks ninth in the league, and with rookie Nick Foles now starting at QB, rookie running back Bryce Brown figures to shoulder a majority of the load. The seventh-round picked is averaging more than six yards per carry, and he topped 100 yards and scored twice in his first career start last weekend against Carolina. Defensively, Philadelphia ranks in the middle of the pack against both the run and the pass and ranks 24th in scoring defense. The biggest surprise with the unit is that the Eagles have the fourth-fewest sacks in the league after leading the NFL in the category last year.

Dallas on the other hand has been the most one-dimensional offense in the NFL. Quarterback Tony Romo heads the second-ranked passing attack, but the Cowboys have the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Having weapons like Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten to throw has led to plenty of passing yards for Romo, but he has just 16 touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions. The end result is an offense that ranks just mid-pack in terms of scoring. Defensively, Dallas has been solid, ranking in the top 15 against both the run and the pass. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is the unit’s top playmaker, and corners Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr have given a huge boost to the secondary. In fact, the Dallas defense was even better before a rash of injuries hit the linebacking corps.

The Eagles Win If:

Foles was first forced into action in Philadelphia’s first meeting with Dallas on November 11, and while he threw for more than 200 yards in relief, he also threw an interception and lost a fumble. Dallas returned both turnovers for scores, and they ended up being the difference in the ball game. If the Eagles are going to win the rematch, Brown and the running game are going to have to shoulder the load, and the offense in general is going to have to keep turnovers to a minimum to prevent a mediocre Dallas offense from getting any easy scores. Defensively, high-priced corners Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie need to live up to their contracts and win their one-on-one matchups with Bryant and Austin. If Philadelphia can slow Romo and the Cowboys’ passing attack and establish Brown on offense, there is no reason the Eagles can’t knock off a Dallas team that has had plenty of issues of its own.

The Cowboys Win If:

This is a must-win game for Dallas, and the Cowboys can’t afford to look past Philadelphia because of all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. Sloppy play, penalties and turnovers are the sure-fire ways to keep an overmatched Philadelphia team in the game. Romo and the offense in particular need to be sharp from the opening kickoff. If Dallas can bury the Eagles in an early hole, Philadelphia will be forced to turn to its inexperienced QB in an attempt to catch up. The Cowboys showed in the first meeting between these two teams that they can rattle and take advantage of Foles if he is forced to be more than a game manager. In the end, mistake-free football is the key for Dallas. If they don’t give the Eagles any easy points, the Cowboys should have no issues winning this game.

Bottom Line:

Although Philadelphia is banged up entering this game, Dallas isn’t exactly equipped to take advantage of the situation. After all, the Cowboys are just 2-3 at home this season, and just one of their five victories have come by more than a touchdown. Yes, the one exception was a 15-point win over the Eagles, but Foles was forced into emergency action in that game. This time around, he has a few games under his belt and time to prepare for a Dallas defense that just surrendered 38 points, including four passing touchdowns, to another rookie quarterback in Robert Griffin III. Granted, Foles is nowhere near the player Griffin is at this point in their careers, but the Cowboys are not the type of team that blows anyone out, especially teams that they should beat. Philadelphia will ride Brown to protect Foles, and with two strong corners to keep Dallas’ passing attack in check, the Eagles will at least be able to hang within 11 points and cover the spread.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles (+11) Cover the Spread

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Dallas -10
Total: Over/Under 44
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Odds and Picks: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Predictions – Week 12 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 12 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/25/2012: The winners of the last two Super Bowls will meet Sunday night when the Green Bay Packers (7-3) go on the road to face the New York Giants (6-4). Both teams enter this matchup sitting atop their respective divisions, but while Green Bay brings a five-game winning streak into Sunday’s meeting, New York has dropped two straight. The teams last met in the playoffs last season when the Giants knocked off the 15-1 Packers, and this weekend’s game could end up being a playoff preview, as well. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers are expecting a close one between two franchises that have enjoyed a lot of success in recent years. Playing at home, the Giants are 1 ½-point favorites.

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Offensively, the two teams share similar pass-first philosophies. Defending MVP Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay’s attack, and despite an injury to his top receiver Greg Jennings, he leads the NFL in quarterback rating and is second with 27 touchdowns. Eli Manning on the other hand has had his ups and down this year. He is actually averaging more yards per game than Rodgers, but he has just 12 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. Manning has two excellent receivers to work with in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, but for whatever reason, he has had his share of off games. Overall, both offenses are averaging just over 26 points per game, but Green Bay has been more consistent. The Packers have scored less 20 points or less just once while the Giants have scored 20 points per or less four times.

Defensively, both teams have been better at stopping the run than stopping the pass, and both are allowing right around 21 points a game to opponents. The biggest difference between the two units is that the Packers have been better at rushing the passer while the Giants have been more opportunistic. Green Bay enters Sunday’s matchup ranked second in the league with 33.0 sacks. Meanwhile, the Giants rank second in the NFL in interceptions, picking off 17 passes to date. If there is a surprise for either defense it is that New York’s normally stout pass rush has been just average thus far this year.

The Packers Win If:

While Rodgers and the Packers’ high-scoring offense get the headlines, Green Bay’s play in the trenches will be crucial in this game. Yes, a big performance from Rodgers certainly won’t hurt the cause, but the offensive line needs to keep him upright in order for that to happen. Rodgers has been sacked an NFL-high 32 times, and if the Packers allow the Giants to get pressure on the pocket while rushing just four players, New York will be able to mask its issues in the secondary. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s own pass rush needs to have a strong showing. The Packers are catching Manning in the middle of a slump, and the best way to keep him struggling is to get in his face early and often. If Green Bay gets its pass rush rolling while shutting down New York’s pressure, the Packers are going to be in great shape.

The Giants Win If:

Plain and simple, Manning has to wake up from his mini slump if the Giants are going to win. Even with their much-improved pass rush, the Packers still struggle to defend the pass. With Nicks and Cruz at his disposal, Manning has to carve up the Green Bay secondary and put a good chunk of points on the board. Meanwhile, New York’s pass rush needs to wake up, as well. Pass protection has been an issue for the Packers, and if the Giants can harass Rodgers in the pocket, they can disrupt Green Bay’s vaunted passing attack. If New York can win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, Manning and company can outscore the Packers and pick up the win.

Bottom Line:

When the Giants upset the Packers at Lambeau Field in the playoffs last year, they were able to disrupt Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack by getting a ton of pressure on the pocket with their defensive line. Despite mediocre numbers thus far, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and the rest of New York’s defensive front should get healthy against a Green Bay offensive line that has had protection issues all season. When Seattle held the Packers to just 12 points early in the year, the Seahawks absolutely assaulted Rodgers. New York will use a similar strategy Sunday, and they still have the pieces to do it. Meanwhile, the big stages seem to bring out the best in Manning, and the stage doesn’t get much bigger than attempting to snap a two-game losing streak while facing a team like the Packers with the postseason looming. Yes, Green Bay has the momentum, but the Giants are at their best when their backs are against the wall. Manning and the New York pass rush wake up, and the Giants come out on top in a back-and-forth contest.

Prediction: New York Giants (-3) Cover the Spread 

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Line: NY Giants -3
Total: Over/Under 51.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Predictions – Week 11 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 11 NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/18/2012: When the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) and Baltimore Ravens (7-2) get together, there is usually a lot on the line and there is never any love lost. Sunday night’s meeting is no exception as the winner will take a big step toward winning the AFC North title. A victory by Baltimore would put them two games up on Pittsburgh, but a Steelers’ win would move them into a tie atop the division with the Ravens. Throw in the fact that this is the first of two meetings between these teams in the next three weeks, and both sides will be plenty motivated to draw first blood. Although Pittsburgh is the home team Sunday, a rash of injuries has the Steelers 3 ½-point underdogs.

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Injuries bit the Steelers early this year as both the offensive line and backfield were decimated right from the start. It has only gotten worse for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, culminating with an injury top quarterback Ben Roethlisberger that will keep him out for the next several weeks. Roethlisberger’s absence leaves a huge void for an already inconsistent offense. The Steelers will also be without star defender Troy Polamalu for Sunday’s game, along with speedy wide receiver Antonio Brown. Still, Pittsburgh has managed to field a stout defense despite all the injury issues, and the Steelers enter this matchup with the top-ranked pass defense and a top-five rush defense.

Baltimore on the other hand has suffered its major injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Star linebacker Ray Lewis is out for the year, shutdown corner Lardarius Webb is out for the year, sack master Terrell Suggs is just getting into game shape after missing the start of the year safety, and safety Ed Reed and nose tackle Haloti Ngata have both been banged up. Needless to say, the once dominant unit has struggled this year. However, an improved offense has helped mask the issue. Running back Ray Rice continues to be a solid, steady workhorse. Meanwhile, quarterback Joe Flacco has enjoyed a strong season with receiver Torrey Smith emerging as one of the top deep threats in the league.

The Ravens Win If:

All season long, the Ravens have transitioned from a defensive-minded team to more of an offensive-minded, pass-first team. However, Baltimore needs to alter its strategy against a Pittsburgh team with a banged up offensive line, backfield and quarterback. The last thing the Ravens want to do is turn the ball over and give the short-handed Steelers’ offense short fields to work with and easy points. A healthy dose of Rice and the ground game will go a long way to ensuring that Baltimore controls the game and wears down the Steelers’ tough defense. If Baltimore makes sure that Pittsburgh has to earn all of its points, the Steelers won’t have the weapons to keep pace with the Ravens for four quarters.

The Steelers Win If:

With Leftwich under center, the Steelers are going to have to rely on their defense to have a shot in this one. Pittsburgh needs to establish a slow tempo and ugly style as soon as possible to make it a low-scoring game. Establishing a ground game and controlling the clock to give the defense a chance to rest is a must if Pittsburgh is going to win the game. Meanwhile, the defense has to either put points on the board itself with big plays or at least set up the undermanned offense with a short field. The Steelers have too many injuries on the offensive end to win a shootout, but if this is the type of game where neither team tops 20, Pittsburgh’s defense can deliver a win.

Bottom Line:

Although both of these teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt and battling for the AFC North title, both have been hit hard by injuries. However, the Steelers are missing their best players on both sides of the ball, and they are 0-4 against the Ravens when Roethlisberger has been out. As compromised as the Baltimore defense has become this season, the decimated Pittsburgh offense doesn’t have the weapons to take advantage of the situation. Meanwhile, the Ravens still have their offensive stars intact, including the best player in this game in Rice. On the road in a rivalry game, Baltimore isn’t going to blow out the Steelers, but they are going to be able to outlast Pittsburgh’s MASH unit and pick up a big win.

Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5
Total: Over/Under 40.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears Odds and Predictions – Week 10 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 10 NFL Picks: Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/11/2012: Two of the best teams in the NFL will face off on Sunday night when the Houston Texans (7-1) travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (7-1). Halfway through the year, both sides are cruising towards the playoffs and trail only the undefeated Atlanta Falcons for the best record in the NFL. Needless to say, the winner of Sunday’s game will make a major statement and establish themselves as the clear No. 2 team on the league’s current pecking order. Long term, the game could actually be a preview of the Super Bowl if both sides continue to play at their current level. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers have put no point spread on this battle of powerhouses.

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On the offensive side of the ball, both teams are mirror images of each other. Both sides like to run the ball, and they use the run to set up big plays in the passing game. The systems have been very successful thus far, and Houston and Chicago currently rank second and third in points per game. For the Texans, running back Arian Foster has been the workhorse of the eighth-best rushing attack, and quarterback Matt Schaub has been efficient enough to keep defenses honest. he Bears, on the other hand,  have used a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Michael Bush to power their running game, while QB Jay Cutler and receiver Brandon Marshall have been in sync and shredding defenses most of the year.

Both teams are among the best in the NFL on defense, as well. The Bears own the second-best scoring defense and rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed. Chicago has also had the most opportunistic unit, intercepting a league-high 17 passes, forcing a league-high 15 fumbles and scoring a league-high seven defensive touchdowns. Stars like Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and Charles Tillman dot every level of Chicago’s defense. Meanwhile, Houston has allowed the fourth-fewest points and third-fewest yards in the NFL this season. Defensive end J.J. Watt currently leads the league in sacks, and even with the loss of linebacker Brian Cushing, Houston hasn’t missed a beat. Both teams are currently tied for third in the NFL with 25.0 sacks.

The Texans Win If:

When the Chicago offense has been at its best, Marshall has had big games and the Bears’ offensive line has kept Cutler upright. If cornerback Johnathan Joseph can consistently win his one-on-one matchups with Marshall and Watt and the Houston pass rush can put some heat on Cutler, the Chicago offense will become very mediocre. Meanwhile, Schaub needs to play mistake-free football against the very opportunistic Chicago defense, making sure the Texans don’t give up any cheap points on a short field. If Houston doesn’t turn the ball over on offense and makes life miserable for Cutler with its defense, the Texans have the balance on both sides of the ball to pull out a tight win.

The Bears Win If:

The Bears’ defense has been setting the table for the offense all year, and Chicago will need to do the same to put points on the board against a stingy Houston defense. Slowing down the Texans’ offense starts with slowing down Foster, and if the Bears can keep Houston’s workhorse in check, they can focus on the Texans’ passing attack and generate the turnovers that have fueled them all year. On the offensive side of the ball, the suspect Chicago offensive line has to hold its own against the Houston pass rush. Cutler can’t move the ball if he is constantly on the run, but if he has time in the pocket, he has the arm to take some shots against the Houston secondary that loves to play man-to-man coverage. A few big plays from Cutler and few from their defense can get the Bears past the Texans.

Bottom Line:

As incredible as Houston’s defense has been this season, the Texans did get shredded by the passing attack of the Green Bay Packers in their lone loss thus far. Granted, nobody is mistaken Cutler for Aaron Rodgers, but Cutler does have the arm to take shots deep down the field. Houston struggled defending the deep ball against Green Bay, and it could bite them again Sunday night. More importantly, Chicago has the run defense to limit Foster’s production and force Schaub to throw more than he is accustomed to. Schaub isn’t a bad QB by any means, but he is at his best when he is a counterpunch to the running game rather than the focal point of the offense. The Bears will make Schaub beat them, and he just isn’t good enough to get the job done against Chicago’s aggressive, opportunistic defense. Big plays on both sides of the ball for the Bears will be the difference in this one.

Prediction: Chicago Bears Win the Game

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Line: Chicago -1
Total: Over/Under 38.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Predictions – Week 9 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 9 NFL Picks: Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/4/2012: Entering Sunday night’s matchup, Dallas and Atlanta are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Falcons (7-0) are the NFL’s lone undefeated team and are cruising to an NFC South title and possible home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (3-4) are coming off their third loss in their last four games and are in danger of losing touch with the New York Giants in the NFC East. Not surprisingly, the Falcons are favored in this matchup by four points.

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Offensively, the teams have been heading in different directions, as well. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan leads a top-10 passing offense and a top-five scoring offense that is putting up almost 29 points per game. He has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, including receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, along with tight end Tony Gonzalez. Dallas is actually averaging more passing yards per game than the Falcons, but the Cowboys haven’t been putting points on the board. Entering Thursday’s matchup, Dallas is among the 10-worst scoring teams in the NFL, averaging less than 20 points per game. With only nine touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions, QB Tony Romo has taken a lot of the flack. However, a porous offensive line and struggling running game haven’t helped matters either.

Fittingly, the teams have also been polar opposites on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas has been one of the stingiest units in the NFL in terms of yardage but is just mediocre in terms of scoring defense. Overall, the Cowboys are allowing the fourth-fewest yards, including the third-fewest passing yards. Cornerbacks Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne have revitalized the secondary of a unit that also features a great defensive front led by sack artist DeMarcus Ware. Meanwhile, the Falcons have allowed opponents to get a more than 350 yards per game, but their bend-but-don’t-break approach has held teams to less than 19 points per game. It is worth noting that for Thursday’s game, Atlanta’s leading tackler Sean Witherspoon is out with an injury.

The Cowboys Win If:

On the defensive side of the ball, Carr and Claiborne have been stout all year, and if they can at least take away the big plays from the Atlanta passing game, the Cowboys will be in good shape. If Ware can also have a big game and put pressure on Ryan, they will be in great shape. On offense, Dallas has to find a way to establish the run to take pressure off of Romo. If the Cowboys’ offensive line can keep Romo upright, he has two weapons in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant that can get open down the field. For his part, Romo can’t turn the ball over and give Ryan and the Atlanta offense any easy scoring chances. If Dallas can limit its turnovers and make this more of a defensive battle than an offensive shootout, the Cowboys knock the Falcons from the ranks of the unbeaten.

The Falcons Win If:

Ryan and the passing attack have been dialed in most of the year, but they face a tough test in this one. Still, Atlanta needs Ryan to play well in order to win, and he has the weapons to beat any secondary. As long as he doesn’t get impatient looking for the big play and start turning the ball over, Ryan and company should still put points on the board. Limiting turnovers will also ensure that a struggling Dallas defense doesn’t get any cheap points. If the Falcons force the Romo and the Cowboys to earn their points, Ryan and company have too much offensive firepower for Dallas to compete.

Bottom Line:

While the Dallas defense is legit, Romo and the offense haven’t been holding up their end of the bargain. An injury to running back DeMarco Murray has made for an inconsistent running game, the offensive line is struggling, and Romo himself has been having the worst year of his career. Meanwhile, Ryan is enjoying the best year of his career, and he has weapons all over the field. Even if Romo and the Dallas offense do connect on a few big plays, they haven’t shown the ability to put together a full four quarters since the season opener. In the end, the Cowboys just have too many holes on offense to compete with the efficient offense of the Falcons.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons (-4) Cover the Spread

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Atlanta -4
Total: Over/Under 47.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Predictions – Week 8 Sunday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 8 NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/28/2012: Two of the best quarterbacks in the game and in league history will square off Sunday night when Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (3-3) host Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (2-4). Both QBs have dealt with their share of adversity with Brees dealing with the loss of his head coach to a bounty scandal and Manning coming back from multiple neck surgeries that cost him all of last season. Despite the hurdles, Brees enters Sunday’s matchup third in the NFL in passing yards and second in touchdowns, while Manning ranks second in quarterback rating and fourth in touchdown passes. Add it up, and a shootout between two of the best signal callers in the business could be on tap. Playing at home, the Broncos are six-point favorites.

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Offensively, the game is a battle between two of the NFL’s best passing attacks. Denver currently owns the fourth-best passing offense in the league, while New Orleans leads the NFL in passing yards per game. Manning and Brees have plenty of firepower to work with, and while Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Brandon Stokley are on the receiving end of most passes in Denver, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham are New Orleans’ top targets. Neither side has a great running game to fall back one, but the Saints actually rank last in rushing offense, managing just 76.2 yards per game. Despite being one-dimensional, both teams rank in the top seven in terms of points scored.

While both teams can light up the scoreboard on offense, there is a drastic difference between the two on the defensive side of the ball. Denver ranks 10-th against the pass and 18th against the run, and the Broncos are allowing 23.0 points per game. Those numbers aren’t spectacular, but they shine when compared to a New Orleans’ defense that ranks 30th against the pass and 31st against the run and allows opponents to score 30.3 points per game on average. The Saints have allowed at least 24 points in all six games this season.

The Saints Win If:

New Orleans may be 2-4, but it isn’t because Brees and the offense aren’t doing their job. The Saints can score a lot of points against any defense in the league, and they are going to need another 30-plus point effort to knock off the Broncos. More importantly, the Saints’ defense needs to take advantage of the slow starts that are becoming routine for Manning. Whether it is a side effect of his surgery or just age setting in, Manning has needed a few series to get warmed up. If the New Orleans defense can get a few stops or even a few turnovers early, Brees and the offense could build a lead and then hang on for the win.

The Broncos Win If:

The Saints’ defense has been beyond atrocious this season. New Orleans can’t tackle, can’t rush the pass and can’t cover receivers down the field. Basically, the Saints can’t stop anyone from scoring, let alone a quarterback like Manning. As long as the Broncos don’t stop themselves on offense, they are going to pile up a ton of points. If Manning and company don’t turn the ball over, they are going to build a lead and allow the Denver pass rush led by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil to bring the heat on Brees.

Bottom Line:

In 2010, Brees and Manning hooked up in one of the more memorable Super Bowls. Brees and the Saints ultimately won that meeting, but the opportunistic defense that intercepted and pressured Manning is no longer around. Instead, Brees has been put in a situation where he has to outscore every single opponent, and the Saints have yet to win a game when they score less than 30 points. The problem New Orleans is going to have Sunday night is that Manning and the Broncos have an offense that is nearly as potent, along with a much better defense that actually holds its own against opposing QBs. Not to mention the fact that the struggling offenses of Carolina and Kansas City have both outscored New Orleans already this year, and the surging Denver offense will do the same.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (-6) Cover the Spread

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -6
Total: Over/Under 55.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on NBC

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