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ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Bucs Odds and Predictions Week 4 – Free NFL Picks 10/3

Monday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday Night NFL Week 4 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/3/11: It is no secret that the Indianapolis Colts (0-3) have struggled without Peyton Manning running the show on offense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) are picking up where they left off last year when they won 10 games and nearly made the playoffs. The Buccaneers have an excellent opportunity to move one step closer to the postseason when the host the struggling Colts on Monday night. However, Tampa Bay has a nasty habit of playing in tight games almost every week, and with Indianapolis getting 10 ½ points, bettors have a tough choice to make.

A look at the Buccaneers’ first three games tells the tale. They opened the year with a seven-point loss at home to the Detroit Lions, and followed with a four-point win one the road against the Minnesota Vikings and a three-point win at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Considering the Vikings and Falcons managed a combined one win in the first three weeks of the season, Tampa Bay hasn’t shown the ability to blowout opponents by any means.

Looking at the Buccaneers’ overall numbers, it is easy to understand why. Offensively, Tampa Bay ranks just 21st in terms of passing yards per game, and only 20th in rushing yards. On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers rank 23rd against both the run and the pass this year. While Tampa Bay has been getting it done in terms of wins and losses, the Bucs haven’t been showing enough muscle on either side of the ball to make bettors feel comfortable with such a large spread.

Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman shoulders much of the blame for the lack of offensive production. He is becoming notorious for slow starts and famous for his fourth-quarter heroics. Freeman has a strong arm that is more than capable of stretching the field, and he can make plays with his legs, too. When he is on top of his game, receiver Mike Williams becomes a legitimate deep threat and running back LeGarrette Blount actually has room to work. However, the entire offense becomes stagnant when Freeman struggles.

The Indianapolis offense has been a train wreck as well, only there have been no late-game heroics to save the day. As a result, veteran Kerry Collins will be replaced by Curtis Painter under center Monday night. While Painter is completely unproven, he can’t really make the offense any worse. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense has played at a high level this season, including an impressive performance in a near win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. Defensive end Dwight Freeney has been at the top of his game, and if he can force a few turnovers from Freeman, the Colts may just be able to put some points on the board.

On paper, the Buccaneers are the far superior team. Barring a rash of turnovers on the part of Freeman and the offense, Tampa Bay should come out on top at home against a Colts’ team that could end up with the top pick in next year’s draft. That being said, the Buccaneers never seem in sync to start a game, and they never seem to be able to knockout an opponent when they have them on the ropes. The point spread in this matchup is just too much for comfort for a Tampa Bay team that makes a living on coming from behind and winning close games. Bettors should strongly consider taking the Colts and the points in this one.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (+10 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Indianapolis Colts +10.5

Week 4 NFL Football: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Bucs
Date: 10/3/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Tampa Bay -10.5Total: Over/Under 40.5

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Posted in NFLComments Off on ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Bucs Odds and Predictions Week 4 – Free NFL Picks 10/3

ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Odds and Predictions Week 3 – Free NFL Picks 9/26

Monday Night NFL Picks: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Monday Night NFL Week 3 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 9/26/11: Two long-time rivals square off on Monday Night Football when the Washington Redskins go on the road to face the Dallas Cowboys with the top spot in the NFC East on the line. The Redskins are the surprise leaders of the division and enter Monday’s game with a 2-0 record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys continue to battle injuries but have managed a 1-1 mark coming into the Week 3 meeting. In fact, Dallas is dealing with so many injuries that oddsmakers have yet to provide a line because of all the uncertainty surrounding the Cowboys possible starting lineup.

Headlining the list of questionable Cowboys is quarterback Tony Romo. He suffered broken ribs and a punctured lung in a Week 2 win against San Francisco, but there is a silver lining to the injury. Doctors have told Romo that he can’t make the injury worse by playing, although he will have to tolerate a significant amount of pain. All signs point to Romo starting Monday’s game, but one hard hit could send him back to the sideline.

Even if Romo is in the lineup, his two top targets likely won’t be. Receiver Miles Austin has already been ruled out, while Dez Bryant is questionable with an injury that kept him out of last weekend’s game. As for the ground game, Felix Jones will likely be able to play, but a sore shoulder has limited his effectiveness all season. Tight end Jason Witten is really the only healthy weapons for the Cowboys entering Monday’s game, and while he is one of the best at his position, the potential problems with a banged up offense are obvious.

On paper, Washington isn’t the most impressive team, but Mike Shanahan’s bunch has done just enough to stay undefeated. Quarterback Rex Grossman has been his usual up and down self, but he could see some big play opportunities against a Dallas secondary that is as banged up as the Cowboys’ offense. With Tim Hightower and Roy Helu leading a rejuvenated running game, the Redskins offense has a chance to be as good as it has been in several years. If Grossman can limit the turnovers Monday night, Washington should be able to put points on the board.

While the Dallas offense is a major question mark, Rob Ryan has been able to make the Cowboys’ pass rush one of the best in the NFL. In fact, Dallas leads the league in sacks coming into Monday’s matchup. If DeMarcus Ware and company can put enough heat on Grossmann, the turnovers could start piling up. Romo and company may be short handed, but they still have enough firepower to take advantage of Washington’s defense is Grossman gets careless.

For bettors, Romo’s status is the deciding factor. If he is indeed in the starting lineup, Dallas should be able to compete. At full strength, the Cowboys would be definite favorites at home against the Redskins. Thanks to all the injuries, the two teams appear to be fairly equal. If the Cowboys happen to open as underdogs, bettors should jump on board. However, if Dallas is favored by more than three or four points, Washington is the smarter bet.

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Washington Redskins +3.5

Week 3 NFL Football: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Date: 9/26/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Dallas -3.5Total: Over/Under 45.5

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Posted in NFLComments Off on ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Odds and Predictions Week 3 – Free NFL Picks 9/26

ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: St Louis Rams @ NY Giants Odds and Predictions Week 2 – Free NFL Picks 9/19

Monday Night NFL Picks: St Louis Rams @ New York Giants Monday Night NFL Week 2 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 9/19/11: During his time as defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, Steve Spagnuolo was the architect of an aggressive defense that led the franchise to a Super Bowl victory. When Spagnuolo returns to New York Monday night as the head coach of the St. Louis Rams, he will try to solve the very unit he helped create. Both teams are dealing with injuries, and the Giants are seven-point favorites entering the game.

For the Rams, question marks abound on the offensive side of the ball. Qaurterback Sam Bradford is expected to play, but he is dealing with an injury to a finger on his throwing. Star running back Steven Jackson is questionable for the meeting, and slot receiver Danny Amendola is doubtful. All three players went down early in the Rams’ 31-13 loss to Philadelphia in the season opener, and St. Louis struggled to put points on the board once the injuries started piling up.

Ironically, the Giants’ defense is just as beat up as the St Louis offense. Defense ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck are both questionable, and the New York already lost two starters in the secondary during the preseason. The losses were evident in the season opener when Rex Grossman was able to top 300 yards in a 28-14 Redskins victory. Even with an injured finger, Bradford could easily put up similar numbers against an injury-riddled Giants’ defense.

The St. Louis Rams’ defense isn’t dealing with injuries, but Spagnuolo inherited a unit that ranked among the worst in the NFL. He has slowly but surely improved the defense, but it is still a work in progress. Against the Eagles in Week 1, the Rams were able to put some pressure on Mike Vick. However, they also gave up big plays on the ground and through the air. The Giants have a pair of big play receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, along with a two-headed monster at running back in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The balanced attack of the New York offense could be tough for St. Louis to slow down.

With Amendola and Jackson likely out, the X-factors for the Rams could be running back Cadillac Williams and receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Williams filled in nicely against the Eagles, topping 100 yards in total offense. The same cannot be said about Sims-Walker. He was acquired in the offseason to become Bradford’s top target, but he managed just a single catch for five yards in the opener. Sims-Walker has to step in the wake of all the injuries if the Rams are going to be able to hang with Eli Manning and the Giants’ attack.

In the end, the injuries to the Rams will likely be more costly than the injuries that the Giants are dealing with. The strength of St. Louis was supposed to be the offense, but with Jackson and Amendola out and Bradford at less than 100 percent, the Rams are essentially mediocre on both sides of the ball. The Giants aren’t exactly the most consistent team in the NFL either, but they simply have more healthy firepower available for Monday night’s meeting.

Prediction: New York Giants (-7) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: NY Giants -7

Week 2 NFL Football: St Louis Rams @ NY Giants
Date: 9/19/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: NY Giants -7Total: Over/Under 44

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Posted in NFLComments Off on ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: St Louis Rams @ NY Giants Odds and Predictions Week 2 – Free NFL Picks 9/19

Monday Night NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Week 1 Odds and Predictions – ESPN Free NFL Picks 9/12

Week 1 Free NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Monday Night NFL Week 1 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 9/12/11: When the Oakland Raiders visit the Denver Broncos Monday night, both teams will be breaking in new head coaches. However, the Raiders are coming off an 8-8 season, including a perfect 6-0 record within the AFC West, and are hoping that Hue Jackson can spearhead a playoff run. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a miserable year and will turn to John Fox to repair a broken defense and improve on last year’s 4-12 record. With the AFC West expected to be up for grabs again in 2011-12, starting the season with a win against a division rival is crucial for both franchises.

It’s impossible to talk about Monday’s matchup without thinking back to last year’s game between the teams when the Raiders abused the Broncos to the tune of a 59-14 victory in Denver. Oakland running back Darren McFadden ran wild in that game, tallying 165 yards and four touchdowns. Stopping McFadden and the Raiders ground game in general isn’t going to be any easier this time around. Oakland has an experienced offensive line that helped the team rank second in rushing yards a season ago.

Slowing down McFadden and company could prove even trickier for the Broncos, considering the defense ranked dead last in yards allowed and points allowed last year, while recording the fewest sacks in the league as well. Needless to say, the Broncos focused much of their offseason additions on improving the defensive side of the ball. Fox was brought in mainly because of his reputation as a defensive minded coach. Meanwhile, the Broncos spent their first-round pick on linebacker Von Viller. The Tackling machine from Texas A&M should immediately help Denver against the run and the pass. After all, he record 27 ½ sacks in his final two collegiate season. The Broncos also welcome back pass-rushing defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who missed all of last season with an injury.

While the Broncos made upgrades on defense during the offseason, the Raiders may have taken a step back. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha signed with Philadelphia as a free agent, and the move could transform one of the better secondaries in the NFL into a mediocre unit overnight. On the plus side, the Oakland front seven is quickly emerging as one of the more productive groups when it comes to getting to opposing quarterbacks. With a mixture of youth and experience, including second-year middle linebacker Rolando McClain, the Raiders could end up masking their weaker secondary with a much improved pass rush.

With Kyle Orton under center for the Broncos, the Raiders will need to do something to slow down the passing attack of Denver. With Tim Tebow seemingly out of the picture with Fox calling the shots, Orton will full control of the offense. Last year, he was on pace to throw for 4,000 yards until Tebow was inserted as the starter for the final few games of the year. His favorite target Brandon Lloyd, who led the league in receiving yards last season, should have an easier time against Oakland this year without the presence of Asomugha.

In the end, it is hard to see the Broncos closing the gap that existed between themselves and the Raiders last season. The addition of Dumvervil and Miller should help the Denver defense, but it likely won’t be enough to halt the powerful Raiders rushing attack. Orton and company should hit some big plays of their own in the passing game, but the persistent rushing attack should take its toll as the game goes on. The Broncos should avoid a blowout, but with the Raiders getting three points, they seem like a safe bet to cover.

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Oakland Raiders +3

Week 1 NFL Football: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Date: 9/12/011
Time: 10:15 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Denver -3Total: Over/Under 40.5

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Posted in NFLComments Off on Monday Night NFL Picks: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Week 1 Odds and Predictions – ESPN Free NFL Picks 9/12

Monday Night NFL Picks: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Week 1 Odds and Predictions – ESPN Free NFL Picks 9/12

Week 1 Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night NFL Week 1 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 9/12/11: Two division rivals square off on Monday Night Football when the New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins. The teams were at the opposite end of the spectrum last season with the Patriots going 14-2 and the Dolphins struggling to a 7-9 record. Throw in a vicious 41-14 beating that New England put on the Dolphins in Miami, and it is easy to understand why Bill Belichick’s bunch is a seven-point favorite in the season opener for both teams.

Coming off an MVP season, New England quarterback Tom Brady once again has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal. From slot receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to newly acquired deep threat Chad Johnson, Brady can torch opposing defenses in a variety of ways. The Dolphins secondary found that out first hand last season, and it could again Monday night.

While the Patriots are a well-oiled machine on offense, the Dolphins are a team in transition. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are out at running back, and rookie Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush have been brought in. Behind an underrated offensive line, the Dolphins plan on using Thomas and Bush as their own version of thunder and lightning. However, it remains to be seen how quickly the two newcomers adjust to their new settings, and it is going to be trial by fire for Miami against the team that finished last season with the best record in the NFL.

The bigger question mark for the Dolphins is going to be the play of quarterback Chad Henne. Henne has been a rollercoaster under center, and the Miami front office tried throughout the offseason to acquire Kyle Orton to replace him. When trade talks dissolved, the team switched gears and backed Henne as their guy. He is going to have to limit the mistakes to give the Dolphins a chance against a more talented New England team. Throwing as many passes as possible to Brandon Marshall, who is as tough to guard as any receiver in the league.

Defensively, the Dolphins actually have a solid all-around unit. However, the defense wore down later in games last season as the offense struggled to stay on the field. The Patriots struggled to defend the pass at times, but offseason additions of Shaun Ellis and Albert Haynesworth to the defensive line should increase the pressure New England can put on opposing QBs. Not to mention that linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo are both athletic and capable of getting to the quarterback. More importantly, Henne has shown nothing up to this point to suggest that he can take advantage of a weaker secondary anyway.

If this game was played later in the year, the Dolphins may have a better chance to contend. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they have to try to break in new set of running backs with an unproven quarterback against a New England team that should put plenty of points on the board. In the end, Brady simply has too many weapons to work with, even for a solid Miami defense. Meanwhile, Henne will likely be coaxed into a few crucial mistakes that turn an uphill battle into a lost cause.

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New England Patriots -7

Week 1 NFL Football: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Date: 9/12/011
Time: 7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: New England -7Total: Over/Under 45.5

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