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Tag Archive | "Monday Night NFL Predictions"

Week 16 Monday Night NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/26/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Monday Night NFL Week 16 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 12/26/11: One of the up-and-coming rivalries in the NFL will add another chapter Monday night when the Atlanta Falcons (9-5) visit the Superdome to face the New Orleans Saints (11-3). The two teams finished first and second in the NFC South last season, and they are going to do the same again this year. New Orleans can wrap up the division with a win Monday, but the defending NFC South champion Falcons would love to delay the celebration and keep their hopes of a repeat alive. The game should feature the intense, playoff-like atmosphere that comes when two strong teams go head to head. That being said, the Saints are seven-point favorites on their home turf.

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When the two teams got together earlier this year, it took overtime to decide the outcome. New Orleans left Atlanta with a 26-23 victory thanks a finish that nobody saw coming. After rallying late to tie the game, the Falcons faced a fourth-and-one situation in overtime in their own territory. Atlanta coach Mike Smith made the call to go for it, and after running back Michael Turner was stuffed in the backfield, the Saints quickly converted the turnover into a game-winning field goal. It was the third straight game between the two teams decided by three points and the second decided in overtime.

Both teams enter the matchup with plenty of momentum. New Orleans has won its last six games, while Atlanta has won four its last five. Offensively, both sides are balanced as far as the numbers are concerned, despite the Saints being a pass-heavy team and the Falcons being a run-first team. The different approaches have both been effective, and both teams rank in the top 10 in the NFL in points scored. The Saints have the edge in terms of production, scoring more than 32 points a game, which is second only to the Green Bay Packers.

Not surprisingly, the powerful offenses are guided by two of the best quarterbacks in the game today. New Orleans’ Drew Brees is having a career year and is on pace to top 40 touchdowns and to shatter Dan Marino’s single-season record for passing yards. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan continues on the path to stardom, and he is looking at a 4,000-plus yard, 30-plus touchdown season. Both players have plenty of weapons to work with, including excellent options at receiver and tight end. Considering both defenses struggle to defend the pass, Brees and Ryan could be part of a shootout Monday night.

The X-factor in the matchup could be Atlanta receiver Julio Jones. The speedy rookie is as healthy as he has been in several weeks, and he is starting to make big plays in the passing game. Jones has more than 700 receiving yards on the year and is averaging 18.0 yards per reception. He is the one player on the Atlanta offense capable of turning any play into a score, and facing a New Orleans team known for explosive plays on offense, Jones quick strike ability could come in handy.

Despite all the firepower on offense, meetings between these two teams have had a way of being controlled and close the past two years. It’s worth noting that neither team has cracked the 30-point mark in the last three meetings. Atlanta does a good job of using Turner and the ground game to take the air out of the ball and limit the Saints’ time of possession. Meanwhile, New Orleans has been unable to pull away even after building early leads. As good as the Saints have been at home this season, especially on offense, history says this game is going down to the wire. Seven points is simply too much.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons (+7) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Atlanta +7

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Week 16 NFL Football: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Date: 12/26/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: New Orleans -7 Total: Over/Under 52.5

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Week 15 Monday Night NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/19/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers Monday Night NFL Week 15 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 12/19/11: After a couple of lackluster Monday night matchups, two of the top teams in the league will meet this week. The NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers (10-3) will host the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3), and both teams have a lot on the line. San Francisco needs to win to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, while Pittsburgh needs to win to keep its AFC North title hopes alive. There should be a playoff-type atmosphere for this one, and the 49ers are three-point favorites playing at home.

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Offensively, the two teams are polar opposites. San Francisco is a power running team, ranking seventh in the NFL. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh likes to stretch the field with a spread passing attack that ranks ninth in the league. While each side clearly prefers one style of offense, the edge in balance goes to the Steelers. Although Pittsburgh is a mediocre running team at best, the 49ers rank 29th when it comes to passing the ball. If either side can force the other to become one dimensional, Pittsburgh has a slight edge.

While both teams differ in their offensive philosophy, they share a common ground on defense. The Steelers’ unit ranks first against the pass and sixth against the run, and the 49ers rank first against the run. In fact, the 49ers have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season. The difference is that San Francisco is just mediocre against the pass, which could haunt them against Pittsburgh and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Even though he is dealing with an ankle injury, Roethlisberger is still a threat throwing the ball. San Francisco will likely blitz to try to exploit Roethlisberger’s lack of mobility, but that strategy could provide the Steelers with some big play opportunities.

For San Francisco, establishing running back Frank Gore will be crucial. The 49ers’ quarterback Alex Smith has been solid managing games, but he hasn’t been asked to go out and throw for 300-plus yards per game. The Steelers have an excellent all-around defense, and that includes shutting down the run. If San Francisco is forced to abandon the run and rely heavily on Smith and the passing game, Pittsburgh’s defense could turn a tight game into a blowout thanks to sacks and turnovers.

The X-factor in the game will likely be the Steelers’ speedy receivers Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. With San Francisco likely to render running back Rashard Mendenhall irrelevant and Roethlisberger hobbled by his ankle, Pittsburgh will have to score in the passing game. Wallace and Brown have both made a habit of scoring long touchdowns, and the 49ers secondary can be vulnerable. Either player is capable of making a game-changing play on offense in a game that could be low scoring and hard hitting.

Momentum can’t be overlooked in this matchup. The Steelers have won four straight and eight of their last nine entering Monday’s contest. On the flip side, San Francisco has lost two of its last three games. Opponents have been able to take away Gore and the 49ers’ ground game, which has led to the team struggling on offense. Pittsburgh will almost certainly adopt the same strategy, and the Steelers have more than enough weapons on defense to hold Gore and company in check. Granted, San Francisco’s stout defense should keep the 49ers in the game, but Roethlisberger and company should be able to score enough points to pick up a big road win.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Pittsburgh +3

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Week 15 NFL Football: Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers
Date: 12/19/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: San Francisco -3 Total: Over/Under 38

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Week 13 Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/5/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Monday Night NFL Week 14 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 12/5/11: It isn’t exactly a marquee matchup, but the San Diego Chargers (4-7) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) will meet Monday night. The Jaguars have struggled most of the year and fired long-time coach Jack Del Rio earlier in the week. Meanwhile six straight losses have sent the Chargers from first to worst in the AFC West and have Norv Turner likely on the way out as coach. Both teams are already looking towards next season, but the Monday night stage is always a nice motivating factor. As they break in a new coach, Jacksonville is a three-point underdog at home.

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While both teams have been equally bad on the field, they couldn’t be more different offensively. The Chargers have a pass-first attack that ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank dead last in terms of passing yards and lean heavily on the running game. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, but while San Diego ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored, Jacksonville ranks dead last at just 12.5 per contest.

For the Chargers, the key to victory will be stopping Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He leads the AFC with 1,040 rushing yards, and the San Diego defense ranks outside the top 20 in terms of stopping the run. That being said, there is a difference in allowing rushing yards and allowing rushing touchdowns. Despite the yardage he has piled up, Jones-Drew has managed just five touchdowns. Teams stack the box in the red zone, forcing the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has been unable to deliver thus far and is completing just 48.5 percent of his passes. San Diego will likely follow the same formula Monday night.

Although the Jacksonville offense has been terrible when it comes to putting points on the board, the conservative approach has helped the Jaguars win the time of possession battle and keep their defense fresh. In fact, Jacksonville ranks fifth in the NFL in terms of points allowed, giving up just 18.2 per contest. On the downside, the unit hasn’t been great at forcing turnovers or pressuring opposing quarterbacks. If the Jaguars are going to win, the defense is going to have to carry the load. The offense needs a short field to be effective, which means the defense will have to make some big plays.

The X-factor in the game will likely be San Diego QB Philip Rivers. After reaching elite status at the position in recent years, Rivers has regressed this season. He has thrown an abysmal 17 interceptions and has lost six fumbles as well. As long as he is averaging more than two turnovers per game, the Chargers are going to continue to struggle winning games. If he can limit his mistakes, San Diego’s talent on offense should give the Chargers the edge. After all, this team does have tight end Antonio Gates, receiver Vincent Jackson and running back Ryan Matthews.

As bad as the Chargers have been during their six-game losing streak, they are still the same team that started the year 4-1 and lost to the undefeated Green Bay Packers by just seven points. The Jaguars just don’t have enough weapons on offense or an opportunistic defense that can take advantage of the turnover prone Rivers. It will likely be a result of what Jacksonville can’t do more than what the San Diego can do, but the Chargers should still come away with a road win in this one.

Prediction: San Diego Chargers (-3) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: San Diego -3

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Week 13 NFL Football: San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Date: 12/5/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: San Diego -3 Total: Over/Under 38.5

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Week 12 Monday Night NFL Picks: New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints Chiefs Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/28/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints Monday Night NFL Week 12 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 11/28/11: Two of the top quarterbacks in the game will be on display Monday night when the New York Giants (6-4) travel to the Superdome to play the New Orleans Saints (7-3). Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt in the NFC and have a shot at their respective division titles. While the two franchises aren’t exactly rivals, this Monday’s meeting has serious long-term implications for both teams. Momentum is on the Saints’ side, having won two straight while the Giants have lost two in a row, and New Orleans is a seven-point favorite in this one.

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Both teams are powered by pass-heavy offenses. In fact, the Saints boast the top-rated passing attack in the NFL, while the Giants rank fifth. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is having an MVP-caliber season, throwing for more than 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns, and New York’s Eli Manning isn’t too far behind with more than 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns. Both QBs have plenty of weapons to work with, including plenty of speed and above average tight ends. Brees has a slight edge in terms of firepower because he also has the luxury of running back Darren Sproles at his disposal, who leads the team in receptions out of the backfield.

While both offenses excel at throwing the ball, the Saints at least have some balance and can run the ball when need be. The same cannot be said for the Giants. They rank 31st in rushing yards per game, managing just over 80 per contest. An injury to running back Ahmad Bradshaw hasn’t helped, but at the end of the day, the New York offensive line just struggles when it comes to run blocking. Last weekend’s embarrassing effort against a terrible Philadelphia Eagles’ run defense was proof that the Giants simply can’t move the ball on the ground.

On the stat sheet, neither side has a strong defense. That being said, the Giants are one of the better teams in the league at rushing the passer. Against a pass-happy team like the Saints, New York’s biggest strength on defense will get a chance to flex its muscles. If the Giants can get consistent pressure on Brees, New Orleans’ rhythm on offense could be disrupted. When Brees struggles, the entire Saints’ offense follows suit.

The X-factor in the game could be the mental focus of the Giants. It sounds a bit cliché, but one look at New York’s schedule makes it clear that the team plays its best against better competition. After all, the Giants lost at home to the Seattle Seahawks and an Eagles’ team missing Michael Vick but somehow went into Foxboro and ended the New England Patriots’ home winning streak. A trip to the Superdome is normally bad news for the road team, but for New York, it could be just what the team needs to end its losing streak.

In the end, the game will likely come down the Giants’ pass rush versus the passing attack of Brees and the Saints. The motivation of playing the top-ranked passing attack should bring out the best in New York’s front four. With Manning likely being able to put up a decent amount of points against a mediocre New Orleans’ defense, this game should be tight. It could go either way, but with the Giants getting seven points, New York is the smart pick.

Prediction: New York Giants (+7.5) Win the Game

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New York Giants +7.5

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Week 12 NFL Football: New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Date: 11/28/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: New Orleans -7.5 Total: Over/Under 51.5

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Week 11 Monday Night NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/21/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots Monday Night NFL Week 11 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 11/21/11: After winning the AFC West last season, the Kansas City Chiefs earned the right to face the fellow AFC division winners, including the New England Patriots this Monday night. Unfortunately, injuries have decimated the Chiefs’ roster, leaving them with a 4-5 record and in the basement of the AFC West. Meanwhile, the Patriots roll into the meeting with a 6-3 record, sitting atop the AFC East. The matchup has blowout written all over it, and New England is a hefty 15-point favorite.

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It’s tough to find a silver lining for the Chiefs. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles early in the year to a knee injury, and starting quarterback Matt Cassel joined him with a hand injury last weekend. Both players are likely out for the year, leaving the unproven Tyler Palko to take over at QB, while Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster split time at running back. The makeshift lineup hasn’t been all that successful, considering Kansas City was destroyed by the then-winless Miami Dolphins two weeks ago and lost to the Denver last weekend despite the Broncos completing just two passes.

If the Chiefs couldn’t beat a Denver team that couldn’t even throw the ball, it is going to take a miracle for Kanas City to knock off a New England team leading the NFL in passing yards. Tom Brady and company should have no problem lightning up the Chiefs’ mediocre secondary, and considering the hapless state of the Kansas City offense, the Patriots’ offense should enjoy plenty of time with the ball. The teams that have been able to slow down the New England have done it by pressuring Brady and being physical with the receivers. The Chiefs don’t have the personnel to do either thing well, which should mean a big day for Brady, receiver Wes Welker, tight end Rob Gronkowski and the rest of the Patriots’ offensive weapons.

While stopping the New England offense would have been an issue for Kansas City even at full strength, the Patriots’ defense has been rather porous this season, especially in the secondary. However, losing Cassel will make it hard for the Chiefs to take advantage of New England’s biggest weakness. Receivers Dwayne Bowe, Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston form an effective trio, but unless Palko performs above and beyond expectations, it won’t matter how much firepower Kansas City has on offense.

In the end, it is hard to believe that a team that has been outscored 48-13 the last two weeks by Miami and Denver can stay within striking distance of the high-powered Patriots’ offense. If the Kansas City defense couldn’t stop Tim Tebow when he completed just two passes, the unit has no chance of stopping Brady and company. Meanwhile, the Chiefs don’t have any playmakers on offense, leaving them powerless to take advantage of New England’s biggest trouble spot. Granted, 15 points is a huge spread by NFL standards, but this is one scenario when it is warranted. More importantly, the Patriots are more than capable of turning this game into a lopsided affair.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-16.5) Cover the Spread 

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New England -16.5

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Week 11 NFL Football: Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Date: 11/21/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: New England -16.5 Total: Over/Under 46.5

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Week 10 Monday Night NFL Picks: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/14/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Monday Night NFL Week 10 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 11/14/11: The Green Bay Packers have been steamrolling the rest of the NFL this season, jumping out to an 8-0 start. Meanwhile, there NFC North rivals the Minnesota Vikings have been getting steamrolled on a regular basis, sitting at 2-6 heading into Monday night’s meeting in Green Bay. Not surprisingly, the Packers are favored in this one, but the question for bettors is whether or not the defending Super Bowl champs can beat a divisional opponent by more than 14 points.

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Looking at the quarterback position, it is easy to see why the Packers are undefeated and the Vikings are sitting in the cellar of the NFC North. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is one pace to top 5,000 yards and to throw for more than 50 touchdowns, and he has been picking apart opposing defenses with ease all season. While the Packers have an MVP candidate under center, the Vikings have rookie Christian Ponder. He took over for veteran Donovan McNabb after McNabb struggled out of the gates.

Of course, the Vikings aren’t without some star power of their own. Running back Adrian Peterson has amassed 795 yards this year, averaging almost five yards per carry and scoring nine times. At times, he has been the only offensive weapon for Minnesota, and his combination of workhorse durability and big play speed makes him tough to stop. To put it in perspective, consider that Green Bay’s top two rushers have combined for more than 100 yards less than Peterson this season.

The problem facing Minnesota is that Green Bay is pretty solid when it comes to defending the run. With a defensive front that features Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji, running lanes have been few and far between for opposing backs. Granted, Peterson can run through just about any defense, but in order to upset Green Bay, he needs to have an exceptional game. This Green Bay unit isn’t likely to allow that to happen.

While these two teams are about as different as they come, they do share the same weakness. Neither defense has been able to defend the pass. Minnesota currently ranks 30th in the NFL and Green Bay ranks 31st.While the Packers technically have the worse secondary, they are also much better equipped to take advantage of the situation. Rodgers should have a monster game against the porous Vikings’ pass defense, while the unproven Ponder may or may not be able to do the same to the Green Bay defense.

The X-factor could be Minnesota defense end Jared Allen. The Packers are a scoring machine on offense, but they have had some issues protecting Rodgers. Meanwhile, Allen is on pace to challenge the single-season record for sacks. If Allen can kill a few Green Bay drives or even force a few turnovers, the Vikings may have a chance to pull off a major upset.

In the end, the matchup of Rodgers against an awful Minnesota secondary spells doom for the Vikings. Green Bay has been able to score at will all season, and Rodgers and company should have no trouble spreading out the Minnesota defense and lighting up the scoreboard. Even if Peterson chips in 150 yards and a couple of touchdowns, it won’t be enough unless Rodgers suddenly forgets what how to play after dominating for the first eight games of the season. In Green Bay, this game has blowout written all over it.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-13) Win the Game

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Green Bay -13

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Week 10 NFL Football: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Date: 11/14/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Green Bay -13 Total: Over/Under 50

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ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles Odds and Predictions Week 9 – Free NFL Picks 11/7/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles Monday Night NFL Week 9 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 11/7/11: Last year, the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles were champions of their respective divisions. This season, both franchises are fighting for their playoffs live as Chicago (4-3) goes on the road to face Philadelphia (3-4) Monday night. Neither team can afford a loss, with the Bears trailing both the undefeated Green Bay Packers and the surprising Detroit Lions in the NFC North and the Eagles looking up at the New York Giants. Coming off an impressive 34-7 win against the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia is a 7 ½-point favorite for Monday’s meeting.

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In past years, a meeting between these two teams has been a battle between the explosive Philadelphia and the fierce Chicago defense. However, the Bears defense has been looking a little long in the tooth this season. Chicago’s secondary has been exposed repeatedly, ranking among the five worst in the NFL and giving up more than 270 yards a game through the air. The normally stout run defense has remained solid, but at 12th in the league, it is by no means elite. Not to mention the fact that the Bears have surrendered 24 points or more in four of their seven games this year.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense has remained as explosive as ever. While turnovers in the red zone have led to some late game collapses, the Philadelphia offense is still dangerous. The Eagles own the top rushing attack in the NFL, piling up 180 yards per game on the ground. They also rank in the top 10 in terms of passing yards per game at just under 270 a contest. Michael Vick has been a big part of the success, doing plenty of damage with both his arm and his legs, but running back LeSean McCoy has been the workhorse. He has 754 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging more 5.6 yards a carry. Last weekend, McCoy ran wild on the top-ranked Dallas run defense, and that could spell serious trouble for the declining Chicago defense.

The X-factor for Chicago will likely be running back Matt Forte. He is the team’s leading rusher and receiver, piling up more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage already. The Eagles have had serious problems stopping the run this season, and if Forte can control the game on the ground for Chicago, the high-powered Philadelphia offense will be sitting on the sidelines. A slower pace and a lower score favor Chicago.

For the Eagles, their blitz-happy defensive system could pay huge dividends. After all, the Bears have had serious issues protecting quarterback Jay Cutler, and Cutler’s tendency to hold the ball a long time doesn’t help matters. If the sacks start to pile up, Forte becomes less effective and the chances of Cutler turning the ball over skyrocket. Giving Vick and company additional chances to score is a recipe for disaster.

In the end, the Eagles likely have too many offensive weapons for the Bears to keep pace. The Chicago defense is no longer a unit that completely shuts down opposing offenses, and the balanced, explosive attack of Philadelphia should be able to put up some points. While Forte should have a strong game, the Bears’ offensive line issues will take a toll in the long run.  The Eagles have hit their stride after a slow start, and it will show on the scoreboard Monday night.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles (-7 ½) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Philadelphia Eagles -7.5

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Week 9 NFL Football: Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
Date: 11/7/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Philadelphia -8 Total: Over/Under 47

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ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs and Predictions Week 8 – Free NFL Picks 10/31/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night NFL Week 8 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/31/11: Two of the contenders for the AFC West crown will go head to head Monday night when the San Diego Chargers (4-2) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (3-3). The teams are heading in opposite directions entering the meeting, with the Chargers coming odd a second half collapse against the New York Jets and the Chiefs riding a three-game winning streak. As a result, the top spot in the division will be on the line Monday night. Despite playing at home, the Chiefs are three-point underdogs.

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Kansas City deserves a lot of credit for even being back in contention for the division title. With a sputtering offense, the Chiefs could have folded when star running back Jamaal Charles went down for the year with a knee injury. Instead, Kansas City has refocused its offensive philosophy, turning to quarterback Matt Cassel to lead the team. He has five touchdowns compared to just two interceptions during the team’s three-game winning streak.

That being said, he could find it tough to continue his recent run of success. The San Diego secondary has been stout all season, giving up less than 180 yards per game during this year. The Chargers rank third in the NFL in that category. The silver lining for Cassel and the Chiefs’ passing attack is that San Diego has allowed 10 touchdown passes through the air. Despite limiting yardage as well as any team in football, the Chargers have been vulnerable on the scoreboard, and that is all that counts in the end. Kansas City receiver Dwayne Bowe could be particularly effective in the red zone because of his size.

Of course, San Diego can put points on the board as well. Quarterback Philip Rivers has been piling up yards all season, although he has been more turnover prone than in past years. He should have plenty of opportunities to make big plays Monday night against a Kansas City secondary that has surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Not to mention the fact that the Chiefs don’t pressure the QB either, averaging just a single sack per game. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Kansas City defense, which could mean big games for both receiver Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates.

The X-factor in the game could be the running backs for either side. Ryan Matthews will be the full-time back for the Chargers because of an injury to Mike Tolbert, and his versatility could give the Chiefs’ problems. Matthews is one of the better backs in the league at catching the ball out of the backfield, which will put even more stress on the Kansas City secondary. Meanwhile, the Chiefs use a running back by committee approach with veteran Thomas Jones and newcomer Jackie Battle carrying the ball between the tackles and the speedy Dexter McCluster serving as the third-down back. The depth at the position has allowed the Chiefs to wear down opponents as the game wears on, which could be a problem for the Chargers considering their poor performance in the second half last weekend.

In the end, momentum could play a huge role. Rivers and the Chargers have both been shaky lately in the second half of games, while the Chiefs have been firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. On paper, San Diego has the more talented roster, but Kansas City is the hotter team. Throw in one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, and bettors have to like backing an underdog at home that has won three straight.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+3) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Kansas City +3

SBG Global Sportsbook

Week 8 NFL Football: San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Date: 10/31/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: San Diego -3Total: Over/Under 44.5

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Posted in NFLComments Off on ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs and Predictions Week 8 – Free NFL Picks 10/31/11

ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets Odds and Predictions Week 6 – Free NFL Picks 10/17/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Monday Night NFL Week 6 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/17/11: The AFC East was supposed to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this year, and with the surprise emergence of the Buffalo Bills, it has more than lived up to the hype. However, the same cannot be said for the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. After floundering around .500 last year, Miami could end up with the league’s worst record. Meanwhile, the Jets had Super Bowl dreams are already in jeopardy as the team has looked like anything but the franchise that had made back-to-back NFC Championship game. In a matchup that has become less than marquee, New York is a seven-point favorite.

Offense has been a major issue for both teams this year, albeit for different reasons. The Dolphins have been dealt a number of injuries, including losing starting quarterback Chad Henne for the season. Henne opened the year with a 400-yard performance and appeared to be progressing to a legitimate NFL starter, but his injury has left the unproven Matt Moore under center. The ground game has been affected as well, as rookie running back Daniel Thomas has been less than 100 percent from the start of the season. The end result has been an inefficient and sometimes absent offense.

Meanwhile, the Jets offense has struggled to find a rhythm behind a shaky offensive line. The team’s strength the last few seasons has been the power run game, and New York has struggled to put up points as a pass-first team led by QB Mark Sanchez. The good news for the Jets is that center Nick Mangold returns from injury for Monday’s game, and his presence could revitalize the rest of the line. After all, this is the same unit that has been one of the best in the NFL the last few years. If running back Shonn Greene can become the center of the offense and allow Sanchez to use play-action as a secondary weapon, the Jets chances of winning increase dramatically.

For Miami, shutting down the Jets’ ground game and establishing a running game of their own will be the key to pulling an upset. The health of Thomas will play a major role, and while he is expected to see some snaps, the Dolphins have already shown that they can’t move the ball on the ground effectively with Reggie Bush as the feature back. Even against a New York front seven that has been gashed repeatedly by opposing running backs, the Dolphins just don’t have the personnel to take advantage of the situation.

Another matchup to watch within the game is Miami receiver Brandon Marshall against New York cornerback Darrelle Revis. Marshall is one of the best possession receivers in the game, and Revis may be the top cover corner. Marshall has done plenty of trash talking leading up to the game, but Revis could get the last laugh. Marshall doesn’t exactly have a great QB trying to get him the ball, and if Revis shuts down Marshall, what little passing attack the Dolphins have at the moment will be virtually non-existent.

Neither team is on top of its game entering this matchup, but even in their current state of disarray, the Jets still have a big advantage. Without Henne, the Dolphins don’t have a QB that can stretch the field and take advantage of Marshall’s talent, and unless Thomas suddenly gets fully healthy, Miami’s ground game will likely continue to sputter behind Bush. Meanwhile, Green and the New York ground game are heading in the right direction and the struggling Jets’ defense should gain some confidence against the inept Miami offense. New York should have no trouble winning covering the spread in this one.

Prediction: New York Jets (-7) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: New York Jets -7

Week 6 NFL Football: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Date: 10/17/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: NY Jets -7Total: Over/Under 42

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ESPN Monday Night NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Odds and Predictions Week 5 – Free NFL Picks 10/10/11

Monday Night NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Monday Night NFL Week 5 Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/10/11: Last year, the NFC North sent two teams to the playoffs, including the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. The division seems poised to send a pair of teams to the postseason again with the Packers off to a 4-0 start, and Monday night’s showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions could go a long way to deciding which franchise will be on the fast track to join Green Bay. The Bears actually won the NFC North last season, but the head to Detroit with a 2-2 record, looking up at the 4-0 Lions. While Chicago is just trying to close the gap, a victory by Detroit Monday would be a big step toward ending the franchise’s long playoff drought. It is one of the older rivalries in the NFL, and the Lions enter the matchup as five-point favorites.

The teams played a pair of tight games last season, with the Bears coming out on top in both meetings. Detroit lost the first matchup after a potential game-winning touchdown catch by receiver Calvin Johnson was ruled incomplete. In the rematch, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler led a fourth quarter comeback and threw a late touchdown pass of his own to seal the victory. Needless to say, there is a good chance that Monday’s meeting could come down the final few possessions.

Of course one key element missing for a majority of both matchups last season was Detroit QB Matt Stafford. However, the former No. 1 overall pick has been healthy this season and has been carving up opposing defenses all season. Not to mention the fact that he has shown plenty of poise, rallying the Lions from 20-point deficits twice in four games this year. The Bears didn’t have to contain Stafford in their wins a year ago, but they will certainly have to find an answer for him Monday if Chicago is going to knock off the unbeaten Lions.

The Bears will also have to find an answer for Stafford’s top target Johnson, who has a league-leading eight touchdowns through four games. His freakish combination of size and speed has allowed him to pick apart just about any coverage. Johnson even caught a touchdown pass amid triple coverage in last weekend’s comeback win against the Dallas Cowboys. If Stafford throws a jump ball at the proper height, Johnson’s height and leaping ability makes the play virtually unstoppable.

While Chicago may not be able to cover Johnson, the Bears stout defensive front should be able to get plenty of pressure on Stafford. If they can keep him on the run or even on his back most of the game, the dominant Detroit passing game could be grounded. Shutting down Stafford completely is likely impossible, but if the Bears can utilize their pass rush to tighten up in the red zone and limit some of the bigger plays, the Lions really don’t have a running game to counter with and change the pace.

Meanwhile, the Bears have the luxury of running back Matt Forte, and he could be the X-factor in Monday’s game. Forte is a versatile back, and he torched the Lions on catches out of the backfield last season. He has been even better this year, and he is coming off a 200-yard rushing performance last weekend against Carolina. The Bears have had serious issues protecting Cutler, and while that could spell serious trouble given the fierce Detroit front led by Ndamukong Suh, Forte’s effectiveness has helped the cause. When Chicago has been able to dominate on the ground, they have been tough to beat.

At some point, the incredible run by the Lions is going to come to an end, but it isn’t likely to happen this weekend. For a franchise striving for respect after being a doormat for so long, a Monday night game at home against a division rival is too big of an opportunity for Detroit to pass up. Stafford and the offense are much better than Chicago has seen in recent years, and Sux and the defense have been nasty and opportunistic throughout the year. While Forte may be a tough matchup, he isn’t going to be able to beat the Lions by himself. Detroit should give the fans plenty to cheer about in this one.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-6.5) Cover the Spread

Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions: Detroit Lions -6.5

Week 5 NFL Football: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Date: 10/10/011
Time: 8:35 PM EST on ESPN
Vegas Odds Favorite: Detroit -6.5Total: Over/Under 47

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