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Tag Archive | "Monday Night Football Picks"

2012 NFL Picks: New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks Week 15

2012 Week 15 NFL Picks: New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/17/2012: At 4-9, the Tennessee Titans have been out of the playoff picture for several weeks, but they have the chance to play the role of spoiler Monday night when they take on the New York Jets (6-7). The Jets are clinging to thin postseason hopes of their own, but a loss to Tennessee would be a death blow to their chances. With their season on the line, all the pressure is on the Jets Monday night. Playing on the road, they are one-point underdogs.

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In many ways, it is amazing that the Jets are even in the playoff hunt. New York has been a disaster on offense, ranking 26th in scoring at less than 19 points per game. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has struggled all season, throwing 12 touchdowns compared to 13 interceptions. Injuries to multiple receivers haven’t helped, and with Jeremy Kerley currently leading the team in receiving yards, it isn’t a shock that New York ranks 30th in passing. The running game on the other hand actually ranks in the top 15 in yards per game, but it is far from explosive. Starting back Shonn Greene is averaging less than four yards per carry, and he has just two 100-yard games all year. Defensively, the Jets have struggled against the run at times, but despite the loss of star corner Darrelle Revis, New York’s unit has remained one of the best against the pass and has kept the Jets in a lot of games.

Tennessee has had issues and injuries on both sides of the ball this year. Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker have both seen time under center, and while Locker currently has the job, he has as many touchdowns passes as interceptions and is completing just 57 percent of his passes. On the plus side, the passing attack did receive a boost a few weeks ago when star receiver Kenny Britt returned. Meanwhile, running back Chris Johnson has topped 1,000 yards and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but he has yet to recapture the form that made him the most explosive player in the NFL just a couple of seasons ago. Defensively, the Titans have been gashed by both the run and the pass, and they are allowing the second-most points in the league this year at almost 30 per game.

The Jets Win If:

The last thing the Jets want to do is caught up in a high-scoring shootout with the Titans. Yes, Tennessee’s defense has been terrible this year, but New York simply doesn’t have the weapons to put a lot of points on the board. Instead, the Jets need to make this an ugly, physical game and with their defense and ground game. Even with a conservative game plan, the Jets should be able to ground and pound their way to a few scores. More importantly, they will limit turnovers that could potentially create easy scores for the Titans. Defensively, New York needs to focus its efforts on shutting down Johnson and make the inexperienced, inconsistent Locker try to win the game. If the Jets can keep the ball out of the hands of Sanchez on offense as much as possible and keep the ball in Lockers hands with their defense, they can grind out an ugly road win.

The Titans Win If:

While New York will be trying to control the pace and keep the score low, the Titans need to be in attack mode. With Britt healthy, Tennessee has multiple receivers that can stretch the field, and Locker needs to do just that to open up some running lanes. If Locker can prove he can make plays down the field, Johnson will be able to do some serious damage on the ground against a weak New York rush defense. Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense needs to focus on stopping Greene and the ground game early, forcing Sanchez into obvious passing situations. If the Titans can get their offense clicking early and force Sanchez to take to the air, the Jets aren’t going to be able to keep pace. Points are Tennessee’s best friend in this game.

Bottom Line:

Let’s face it. Both of these teams have plenty of flaws, but Tennessee’s weaknesses are actually masked somewhat by New York’s weaknesses. The Titans have given up a ton of points this year, but they are facing a Jets’ offense that managed just seven points against Arizona and 17 points against Jacksonville the last two weeks. Tennessee just doesn’t have to worry about giving up big plays to the Jets, and that alone masks the Titans’ biggest problem. New York’s defense on the other hand ranks 29th against the run, allowing almost 140 yards per game. With the speed of Johnson and scrambling ability of Locker, the Titans should be able to find their way to a few big plays. At the end of the day, the recipe for beating Tennessee is to exploit its porous defense and outscore them. The Jets simply don’t have the pieces in place to put a lot of points on the board, and it will bite them against a Titans’ team that is as healthy as it has been all season on the offensive side of the ball.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans (-1) Cover the Spread

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Tennessee -1
Total: Over/Under 41.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Odds and Picks: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Predictions – Week 13 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 13 NFL Picks: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 12/3/2012: A crucial matchup in the NFC East is on tap for Monday night when the New York Giants (7-4) visit the Washington Redskins (5-6). With a victory, the defending Super Bowl champs can take a commanding lead in the division and all but lock up a playoff spot. Washington on the other hand has knocked off fellow division rivals Philadelphia and Dallas in consecutive weeks to climb back into the playoff conversation, but with little margin for error, the Redskins need to extend their NFC East winning streak to keep their hopes alive. The Giants won the first meeting between these two teams 27-23 at home in October, and New York is a three-point favorite on the road in the rematch.

Offensively, the Giants have been much more balanced this year than in recent seasons. Quarterback Eli Manning leads the ninth-ranked passing attack, and while he has been reckless at times, he remains one of the best in the business in crunch time. Receiver Victor Cruz is Manning’s top target, but fellow receiver Hakeem Nicks is a big play option in his own right. Meanwhile, Ahmad Bradshaw and the ground game have come to life this year, ranking 13th in the NFL. The more balanced attack has paid dividends, and the Giants currently own the fifth-ranked scoring offense. On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants have given up a lot of yardage, but they have been solid where it counts. New York has the ninth-best scoring defense, and after a slow start, the pass rush has climbed into the top 10 in terms of sacks.

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When talking about the Redskins, the discussion starts with rookie QB Robert Griffin III. He is just shy of 2,500 passing yards and has already topped 600 rushing while combining for 22 scores. Meanwhile, fellow rookie Alfred Morris has rushed for almost 1,000 yards, helping give Washington the top rushing offense in the NFL. Overall, the Redskins rank sixth in points per game. Defensively, Washington has been stout against the run and horrible against the pass. Entering Monday night’s showdown, the Redskins own the third-ranked rush defense but rank 31st against the pass. While injuries to its two best pass rushers have undoubtedly caused some of Washington’s issues in the secondary, the bottom line is that the Redskins are allowing almost 27 points per game to opponents.

The Giants Win If:

At their best, the Giants are probably the best team in football, but focus remains an issue. If the big stage that is Monday Night Football is enough to bring out the best in them, the Giants are going to be in good shape. On the field, Manning needs to take advantage of a matchup with a porous Washington secondary. Meanwhile, New York’s defensive front can take a big step towards shutting down Griffin by putting plenty of pressure on the rookie. Griffin has actually excelled when defenses send five or more rushers, but the Giants have the personnel to get pressure with just their defensive front. If Manning has a big game throwing the ball while avoiding turnovers and New York pressures Griffin without having to blitz, the Giants are going to be in great shape in this game.

The Redskins Win If:

While Griffin’s big play ability is well known, it is Washington’s rookie running back that could be the great equalizer in this matchup. If Morris has a strong game running the ball, New York’s defensive front will have to focus on more than just rushing the passer. If Griffin has time in the pocket, he has proven time and time again that he can dissect a defense with either his arm or his legs. Defensively, Washington isn’t really equipped to shut down Manning and the New York passing attack, but if the Redskins can at least create a few turnovers, they can minimize the damage. If Washington prevents Manning from having a monster game and gives Griffin time to create big plays of his own, the Redskins can avenge their earlier loss to New York.

Bottom Line:

Manning and the Giants have certainly had some bad losses this year, including two within the division to Dallas and Philadelphia. However, they have also had some big wins, dominating San Francisco and Green Bay. Plain and simple, New York plays its best on big stages. Facing a player with the hype of Griffin on Monday night with a chance to take a big step towards a division title definitely qualifies as a big stage. More importantly, Manning shredded the porous Washington secondary for more than 300 yards in the first meeting while the Giants sacked Griffin three times. New York’s pass rush has been even more effective lately than it was the last time these two teams met, and while both offenses are likely to hit some big plays, the clutch play of Manning along with New York’s defensive front will allow them to complete the season sweep of Washington for the fourth time in the last five years.

Prediction: New York Giants (-3) Cover the Spread

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: NY Giants -2.5
Total: Over/Under 50
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Predictions – Week 12 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 12 NFL Picks: Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/26/2012: Monday night’s game between the Carolina Panthers (2-8) and Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) can only be dubbed the battle of the NFL’s biggest disappointments. Both teams entered the year with playoff expectations, and both were even trendy picks to make Super Bowl runs. Well, neither team has exactly lived up to the hype. At this point, both would be hard pressed to make the postseason even if they won all of their remaining games. I guess the silver lining entering Monday’s matchup is that somebody has to win. Mired in a six-game losing streak and battling major injuries, the Eagles are three-point underdogs at home.

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Both teams are a shell of what they should be on the offensive side of the ball. Despite plenty of talent, Carolina and Philadelphia currently rank 27th and 31st in points per game. At their best, the Eagles are an excellent running team with an explosive passing game. However, horrible offensive line play and poor decision by quarterback Michael Vick have hamstrung Philadelphia all year. Worse yet, Vick is out with an injury for Monday’s game, and workhorse running back LeSean McCoy is out, as well, leaving rookie QB Nick Foles under center. For Carolina, a colossal step backward by sophomore QB Cam Newton has been the biggest problem, but the ground game as a whole has struggled. The Panthers were the best power running game in the NFL last year while Newton was a big way waiting to happen. Neither has been the case in 2012.

Defensively, both teams are below average and equally mediocre at defending both the run and the pass. Entering Monday’s game, the Eagles rank 22nd in points allowed, 12th against the pass and 18th against the run. Meanwhile, the Panthers rank 21st in points allowed, 17th against the pass and 19th against the run. Shockingly, the Panthers have had the much better pass rush despite the Eagles leading the NFL in the category just one year ago. Neither side has been great at forcing turnovers, but if there is a bright spot for either team, it is Carolina rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly. He is currently third in the NFL with 98 tackles.

The Panthers Win If:

Carolina’s pass rush has been solid all year, and the Panthers defensive front needs to take advantage of this favorable matchup. If Carolina’s defense spends plenty of time in the Eagles’ backfield and in Foles’ face, an already struggling offense is going to have trouble putting any kind of points on the board. Meanwhile, Newton and the offense have to get back to pounding the ball on the ground. More importantly, Newton needs to avoid the turnovers that have plagued him all year. Killing scoring drives and giving the Eagles a short field is a recipe for a disaster, but if he plays smart, efficient football, the Panthers should be able to take care of the injury-riddled Eagles on the road.

The Eagles Win If:

If Philadelphia is going to win, Andy Reid has to change his pass-first game plan a bit. The Eagles tried to have Foles lead the offense last weekend against Washington, and the end result was an ugly 31-6 loss. A solid performance from backup running Bryce Brown would go a long way to helping the cause, and Philadelphia needs to find creative ways to get explosive receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin the ball in space. Defensively, the Eagles have to prey on the mistake-prone Newton to set up their offense with favorable field position. At the end of the day, the Eagles’ best chance of winning hinges on their ability to force turnovers while remaining mistake free themselves.

Bottom Line:

Both of these teams have been train wrecks this season, but only the Eagles have two devastating injuries on top of all their other issues. Philadelphia is averaging less than 17 points per game, and taking Vick and McCoy away from the offense isn’t going to help matters. Meanwhile, Carolina’s lone defensive strength is its pass rush, and pass protection just happens to be a major weakness for the Eagles. Throw in the fact that Reid has always seems to stick with his pass-heavy philosophy, and Foles is likely headed for a long night. Carolina isn’t a good team by any means, but the overall ineptitude of the Philadelphia offense is going to hand Newton and company enough scoring chances that even the Panthers will be able to take advantage.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers (-3) Cover the Spread

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Carolina -2.5
Total: Over/Under 41.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Predictions – Week 11 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 11 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 11/19/2012: Two of the top teams in the NFC will take the field Monday night when the Chicago Bears (7-2) go on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1). Both teams enter matchup sitting atop the respective division, and both have used a similar recipe for success, relying on power running and defense to win games. The two sides have something less-flattering in common, as well. Chicago’s Jay Cutler and San Francisco’s Alex Smith were both knocked out of their games last weekend with concussions. With Cutler likely out and the status of Smith still up in the air, oddsmakers have yet to assign a spread for this one.

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Whether or not Smith is under center for the 49ers, they are a run-first team. Frank Gore is the workhorse of the top-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, and fellow back Kendall Hunter is a solid counterpunch. Both players are averaging at least five yards per carry on the year. Meanwhile, the defense has been one of the stingiest in football, ranking fifth against the pass and sixth against the run. Patrick Willis and Justin Smith headline the unit, and while San Francisco isn’t posting gaudy sack or turnover totals, the 49ers’ defense is allowing the fewest points in the NFL.

Chicago is also a run-first team with the two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Michael Bush leading the ninth-ranked rushing attack. However, Cutler had been providing plenty of big plays in the passing game with receiver Brandon Marshall being on the receiving end of most of them. Marshall has accounted for nearly half of Cutler’s passing yards this year and more than half of his touchdowns. The chemistry between the two players has helped the Bears’ offense reach a new level, but it remains to be seen if Marshall can develop the same chemistry with backup Jason Campbell. On the plus side, Chicago’s defense ranks in the top 10 against both the run and pass and also ranks second in fewest points allowed. Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers and Charles Tillman lead a group that is forcing more turnovers than any other defense in the NFL. The Bears’ defense has been a big play waiting to happen, and they have already scored a league-high seven touchdowns this year.

The Bears Win If:

Even if Smith is under center for San Francisco, the game plan doesn’t change for Chicago. The Bears are going to have Campbell under center, and keeping him out of third and longs and not falling behind are musts. The Bears don’t have to gash the 49ers on the ground, but they do have to move the chains and control the clock enough to keep their defense rested. Meanwhile, the opportunistic defense needs to be just that and control field position and force a few turnovers in order to set the table for the offense.  If Chicago can make this game the defensive battle that everyone expects it to be, the Bears have the playmakers on their defense to knock off the 49ers even if the offense doesn’t put a lot of points on the board. If this became becomes high-scoring in the least, the Bears are in trouble.

The 49ers Win If:

With Cutler on the sidelines, the already-stingy San Francisco rush defense has to make sure that Campbell and the Bears’ passing attack has to be them. From there, the 49ers’ secondary has to take away Marshall as an option for Campbell. After all, he has more than 900 yards on the year, and no other Chicago receiver has reached 200 yards thus far. On the offensive side of the ball, it is more important for San Francisco to avoid turnovers than it is to make plays. Turning the ball over and giving Chicago a short field is the last thing the 49ers want. If this game boils down to which offense can methodically move the ball into scoring position the most often, the more complete San Francisco offense should win out over four quarters.

Bottom Line:

While neither side is 100 percent healthy entering this matchup, missing Cutler puts the Bears at a huge disadvantage. After all, we got a preview of what Chicago looks like without Cutler when he suffered a broken thumb last year, and the Bears promptly went from a playoff-caliber team to one that could barely win a game. Going up against a stout defense like San Francisco’s only adds insult to injury, and as great as Chicago’s defense is in its own right, the 49ers’ conservative, ball-control offense will only award Tillman and company so many opportunities to make plays. It will be a hard-hitting affair, but the 49ers will take advantage of Cutler’s absence to notch the win.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Win the Game

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3.5
Total: Over/Under 35.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Predictions – Week 8 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 8 NFL Picks: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/29/2012: The top spot in the NFC West will be on the line when the San Francisco 49ers (5-2) go on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals (4-3) Monday night. With a win, the 49ers can take a commanding lead in their bid to repeat as division champs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will be looking to pull even by snapping a three-game losing streak. Having cooled off dramatically since their 4-0 start, Arizona is a seven-point underdog at home.

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If you enjoy high-powered offenses and stellar quarterback, this isn’t a game for you. San Francisco ranks 29th in passing offense, averaging less than 200 yards per game through the air. Of course, Arizona isn’t much better, ranking 27th in passing yards. The big difference between the two offenses is that while the Cardinals are also a pitiful running ream, the 49ers own the second-best rushing attack in the NFL. Led by power back Frank Gore, San Francisco is averaging more than 176 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Arizona is averaging less than 90 yards per game while dealing with injuries to running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams.

Although neither side is going to put on a show on offense, both teams do bring solid defenses into the matchup. San Francisco ranks in the top 10 against both the run and pass and actually has the top-ranked defense against the run. The 49ers also rank second in scoring defense and are allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL. For their part, the Cardinals rank fourth against the pass and are allowing the fourth-fewest points of any team in the NFL. Needless to say, Monday’s game could turn into a low-scoring, defensive battle.

The 49ers Win If:

Arizona’s offense is terrible and San Francisco’s defense is arguably the best in the NFL. As long as San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t implode and start firing interceptions, the Cardinals are going to have serious issues putting points on the board. The 49ers just need to let their defense win the field position battle and pound away with their power running game on offense. The Cardinals’ mediocre run defense will eventually wear down, and the classic formula of running the ball and playing defense will lead to a San Francisco victory.

The Cardinals Win If:

While their offense has been embarrassing at times, Arizona’s defense has been solid despite occasional struggles against the run. In particular, the Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals’ secondary has been great at creating turnovers. Smith has been falling into some of his bad habits lately, and if Arizona can take advantage to the tune of a few interceptions, the Cardinals can keep this game low-scoring and close. From there, a big play from Larry Fitzgerald or a big play from the explosive Cardinals’ special teams unit could be enough to stun the 49ers. If Arizona’s defense can create some turnovers and the offense can avoid turning the ball over, the Cardinals have a shot.

Bottom Line:

While the below average defense against the run and sputtering offense are both reasons for the Cardinals to be concerned, the biggest issue for Arizona is its offensive line. The Cardinals are allowing an average of five sacks per game, and against a San Francisco defense that is arguably the best in the NFL, points are going to be next to impossible to come by. Barring an absolute meltdown from Smith, the 49ers will run their way to enough points to win the game comfortably. Arizona is trending in the wrong direction anyway, and the Cardinals just don’t have near the firepower on offense to handle San Francisco’s loaded defense.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-7) Cover the Spread

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: 49ers -7
Total: Over/Under 38
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Predictions – Week 6 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 6 NFL MNF Picks: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 10/15/2012: The top spot in the AFC West will be up for grabs Monday night when the Denver Broncos (2-3) go on the road to face the San Diego Chargers (3-2). The game will also be a measuring stick for two teams that have faced very different levels of competition in the early going. Denver’s three losses have come against Atlanta, Houston and New England, while San Diego’s three wins have come against Tennessee, Oakland and Kansas City. Are the Broncos a victim of tough competition, and are the Chargers just feasting on the bottom feeders of the league? Both sides will get a chance to answer those questions Monday night in a game that is getting an even line.

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After leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Broncos have converted to pass-first team with Peyton Manning now under center. The Broncos currently rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards, but they have maintained some balance, ranking in the middle of the pack in rushing. San Diego, on the other hand, ranks in the middle of the pack in both rushing and passing yards. However, those numbers could be trending up now that starting running back Ryan Matthews is healthy and offseason signee Robert Meachem is finding a rhythm with quarterback Phillip Rivers. More importantly, the two teams have been almost even where it counts with Denver averaging just 2.2 more points per game than the Chargers.

On the defensive side of the ball, the two teams have had opposite issues. Denver’s strong pass rush and experienced secondary has been stout against the pass, but the Broncos have been gashed on the ground. Meanwhile, the Chargers have stuffed the run on defense but have been torched time and time again by the pass. For the year, the Chargers are allowing just 2.2 points less per game the Broncos.

The Broncos Win If:

Manning has had at least 330 passing yards in three straight games and has thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions during the stretch. Facing a San Diego team with a suspect secondary and a mediocre pass rush, he has to have another big game. If Denver starts scoring early and builds an early lead, the Broncos are going to be in business. If Rivers and company have to abandon the running game and play catch-up, Denver is going to be able to mask its weak run defense while turning loose is solid pass rush. A strong showing from Manning and the offense will be key.

The Chargers Win If:

While Rivers is a solid QB in his own right, the Chargers don’t want to get into a shootout with Manning. That strategy didn’t work against the Saints, and it probably won’t work against the Broncos. San Diego needs to establish Matthews and the running game early, controlling the clock and setting up some big play opportunities with the play-action pass. If the Chargers take advantage of Denver’s poor run defense, they can neutralize Manning and win the game.

Bottom Line:

San Diego has faced two elite quarterbacks this season in Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. The Chargers are 0-2 in those games and have allowed an average of 29.0 points. Manning may not quite be back to 100 percent, but he is more than healthy enough to light up a mediocre San Diego secondary. Granted, the Denver defense hasn’t been an elite unit either, but the Broncos do have a pair of solid cornerbacks that will limit the big plays in the passing game that Rivers and company rely on. In the end, Manning is able to put more points on the board than Rivers and propel the Broncos to a big road win within the division.

Prediction: Denver Broncos Win the Game

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: San Diego -1
Total: Over/Under 48
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Houston Texans @ NY Jets Predictions – Week 5 Monday Night Football Picks

2012 Week 5 NFL Monday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans @ NY Jets Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/8/2012: Although technically a battle between a pair of first-place teams, Monday night’s meeting between the Houston Texans and New York Jets doesn’t exactly feel like a marquee matchup. After all, Houston is 4-0 and is looking like the clear favorite in its division and a frontrunner in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Jets tied for first in the AFC East at 2-2, but have lost their best offensive and defensive player for the year and are coming off an ugly 34-0 loss against San Francisco last weekend at home. Momentum is definitely on the Texans’ side, and even though they are on the road, they are eight-point favorites.

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Offensively, the edge goes to the Texans. Houston has scored 27 or more points in all four games and has scored 30 or more three times. The strength of the offense is Arian Foster and the running game, but quarterback Matt Schuab is a very efficient counterpunch. On the year, Schaub has seven touchdowns to just one interception, and he is completing 67 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense ranks 24th in rushing and 27th in passing, and those numbers could get even worse now that receiver Santonio Holmes is out of the year.

Houston should also have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. Led by young stars like linebacker Brian Cushing and defensive end J.J. Watt, the Texans’ defense currently ranks second against the pass and 11th against the run. Granted, New York currently owns the second-best pass defense, but those numbers will be slipping now that shutdown corner Darrelle Revis is out for the year. More importantly, the Jets own the second-worst run defense in the NFL.

The Texans Wins If:

Houston just has to stick with its winning formula in this one, and the Texans should move to 5-0. Houston has an excellent rushing attack and Foster and Ben Tate should find plenty of running room against a porous New York defensive front. As long as Schaub continues to make smart decisions and remains the same efficient passer he has been all year, the Texans should deliver another 30-plus point performance. Against a sputtering New York offense that lacks any playmakers, 30 points will be more than enough for Houston to win comfortably. The Texans young, athletic defense will come at New York QB Mark Sanchez early and often, and unless Sanchez suddenly figures out how to create big plays, things will get ugly for the Jets.

The Jets Wins If:

If the Jets are going to pull off an upset, they will have to turn this game ugly from the opening kickoff. New York needs to grind things out on the ground and control the clock as much as possible. Defensively, the Jets will need to stack the box against Foster and use the exotic blitz packages that have had success for the team in the past. If New York can somehow keep this a low-scoring game, they have a shot. If they have to approach 30 points to win, it isn’t going to happen.

Bottom Line:

This game has a chance to be just as much of a mismatch as the Jets’ last game was. Granted, Houston’s defense might not be as good as San Francisco’s, but it is close. More importantly, the Texans have a much better offense. Foster and the ground game will control things for the Texans, and Schaub will find a few big plays against Jets’ Revis-less secondary. Throw in some more ugly offense from Sanchez and company, and the most exciting thing New York fans might see is a Tim Tebow sighting. Houston wins big in this one.

Prediction: Houston Texans (-8) Cover the Spread

Houston Texans @ NY Jets
Line: Houston -8.5
Total: Over/Under 40.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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Posted in NFLComments Off on 2012 NFL Picks and Odds: Houston Texans @ NY Jets Predictions – Week 5 Monday Night Football Picks

Monday Night NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 10/1/2012

2012 NFL Picks: Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 10/1/2012: Two of the most beloved NFL franchises will battle it out on Monday Night Football when the Chicago Bears (2-1) go on the road to face the Dallas Cowboys (2-1). Both teams have playoff aspirations and the talent to reach the postseason, but both play in tough divisions, as well. Throw in the fact that both sides are undergoing changes to their offensive philosophies from years past, and we end up with a very interesting matchup on our hands. Playing at home, the Cowboys are three-point favorites in this one.

SBG Global Sportsbook

Through the first three weeks of the season, it is tough to look at either team’s resume and pick a clear favorite in Monday’s matchup. Dallas did score a big win against the defending champion Giants in the opener but followed it up with an ugly loss to Seattle and an ugly win against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Chicago beat up on Indianapolis and St. Louis but didn’t put up much of a fight in a loss to Green Bay. The Cowboys definitely have the signature win between the two, but this matchup is a chance for both teams to make a statement against another playoff-caliber opponent.

With Jay Cutler under center for the Bears and Tony Romo running the show for the Cowboys’ offense, there should be plenty of passes to go around. However, that doesn’t mean there will be a lot of points scored. Outside of a 41-point effort from Chicago against the Colts, neither offense has been all that impressive in 2012. In fact, Chicago currently ranks 28th in the NFL in passing yards. Dallas’ passing attack doesn’t crack the top 10 either, and neither team has a consistent running game to fall back on. Now, throw in the fact that Chicago’s defense ranks sixth against both the run and the pass while Dallas has the second-best pass defense and top-rated unit in terms of yards allowed, and a low-scoring, grinding pace could be on tap Monday.

The biggest issue facing both offenses is poor offensive line play. Both teams knew the area was a potential trouble spot entering the year, but I’m not sure either side expected things to be as bad as they have been. In Dallas’ loss to the Seahawks, Romo was pressured all game, getting sacked four times. Cutler faced a similar onslaught in Chicago’s loss to the Packers, getting sacked seven times. With Cowboys’ sack master DeMarcus Ware leading the hunt for Cutler and Julius Peppers playing the same role in the Bears’ attack on Romo, both QBs could find themselves facing a lot of heat once again.

In the end, the QB that best handles the pressure and avoids critical mistakes is probably going to lead his team to the win, and Romo and the Cowboys should have a leg up. After all, Cutler has six interceptions compared to only three touchdowns this season, and he has had at least one turnover in all three games. Four of those interceptions came against Green Bay as he made mistake after mistake in the face of the Packers’ pass rush. Ware and the Cowboys can put similar heat on opposing QBs, and the rebuilt Dallas secondary led by Brandon Carr and first-round pick Morris Claiborne has been fantastic. For as much flack as Romo has taken over the years for poor decisions, Cutler has been even worse. In what should be mainly a defensive battle, Cutler’s risky mentality is going to burn the Bears. It won’t be pretty for either team, but much like last weekend when the Cowboys grinded out a 16-10 win against the Buccaneers, Romo and company should come up with a similar performance against the turnover-prone Cutler Monday night.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (-3) Cover the Spread

New Parlay Odds at BetOnline

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Dallas -3
Total: Over/Under 41.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/24/2012

2012 NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Picks 9/23/2012: When you think of the Green Bay Packers, you think about their Super Bowl title from two years ago, their 15-1 regular season record last season, and the defending NFL MVP they have running their offense. When you think about the Seattle Seahawks, you probably think about the ridiculous situation the team has at quarterback and possibly about Marshawn Lynch getting Skittles thrown at him when he scores. The point is that these two franchises are on very different levels right now when it comes to success. However, an underrated Seattle defense along with one of the better home-field advantages could make for an interesting matchup when the two teams meet on Monday night. The oddsmakers seem to agree, and the Packers are just three-point favorites on the road.

SBG Global Sportsbook

Whenever Green Bay is involved in a game, the Packers’ offense has to be the starting point for any breakdown. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading the pass-happy attack, Green Bay had the top-scoring offense in the NFL last year despite having a terrible rushing attack. This year’s group still can’t run the ball, but with all the weapons back in the passing game, it is only a matter of time before the Packers start piling up points once again. Having a healthy Greg Jennings to throw to would go a long way to pushing the offense back to an elite level, and with the receiver likely to return baring any setbacks, Rodgers could be headed for his best game to date.

Granted, Seattle does have a solid defense, especially up front. The Seahawks terrorized Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ offense in a win last weekend, and the unit can stifle just about any running game out there. That being said, stopping the ground game is a non-factor against the pass-happy Packers. More importantly, the Green Bay offensive line is a bit better than the sieve of a group Dallas is running out there this season. The Seahawks will land some shots, but the Packers have the weapons to spread out the Seattle defense and take advantage of the unit’s weaknesses in the secondary, especially if Jennings returns as expected.

Seattle also has the issue of starting a rookie at quarterback. Russell Wilson has been solid in his first two NFL starts, but Chicago QB Jay Cutler can attest that the changes made by Green Bay in the offseason to upgrade the pass rush have definitely worked. Running back Marshawn Lynch does give the Seahawks a reliable option in the ground game, but suspect receivers and Wilson’s inexperience are bound to catch up to Seattle at some point. The pressure put on by Clay Matthews and the rest of the Green Bay pass rushers could be just the thing to force Wilson and company into some critical turnovers.

Don’t get me wrong, Seattle’s style of play naturally makes them a tough team to face. The Seahawks try to control the clock on offense with their power running game, and their defense is physical up front and does a decent job of limiting big plays. Throw in a home crowd that makes adjusting plays difficult for opponents and has been known to force a false start or two, and the Seahawks have all the pieces to hang within a touchdown of a high-scoring team like the Packers. The problem is that Seattle would have to pay nearly perfectly for that to happen, and with the current spread at just three points, Wilson would have to play the game of his life for the Seahawks to keep pace with the firepower that Green Bay brings to the table. It won’t be a blowout, but the Packers should score the win on the road.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-3) Cover the Spread

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Green Bay -3
Total: Over/Under 46
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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2012 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Odds and Predictions – Free Monday Night Football Picks 9/17/2012

2012 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL MNF Picks 9/17/2012: Denver’s Peyton Manning is off to a fast start as he tries to prove that he is still the same player that won the MVP Award four times. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is off to a similarly quick start as he tries to prove that he deserves to be considered one of the elite players at the position in the NFL today. Both players will get a chance to make another statement Monday night when the Broncos head to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons. Atlanta demolished Kansas City in their season opener, while Denver picked up a big win against Pittsburgh. With both teams looking sharp out of the gate, Monday’s meeting has all the makings of a competitive matchup. The oddsmakers agree, and the Broncos are just three-point underdogs on the road.

SBG Global Sportsbook

With Manning joining Denver in the offseason and the Falcons transitioning to a pass-first attack, both offenses are strikingly similar. Atlanta has the superior receivers with the duo of Roddy White and Julio Jones, but Denver’s Demaryius Thomas is an explosive receiver in his own right, and Eric Decker and Brandon Stokley looked in sync with Manning in the opener. Atlanta also has a solid tight end in Tony Gonzalez and a power back in Michael Turner, and Denver counters with tight end Jacob Tamme and running back Willis McGahee. Both sides use the run game just to keep defenses honest, and with plenty of firepower at their disposal, Manning and Ryan are likely heading for a high-scoring battle.

Monday’s game will likely come down to which side can make the most plays on defense, and the edge in that area should go to the Broncos. Outside linebacker Von Miller and defensive end Elvis Dumervil are two of the top pass rushers in football, and while Atlanta’s offensive line is a solid all-around group, this is the first year the unit will be predominantly pass blocking. History also says that Ryan becomes a mediocre quarterback when making throws under pressure. Granted, no defense is going to bottle up the Falcons’ receivers for an entire game, but Denver does have to solid corners in Tracy Porter and Champ Bailey that can limit the damage. Add it up, and the Broncos have the personnel on defense to give Ryan and company some headaches.

The same cannot be said for Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons lost their top cover corner in Brent Grimes for the year in the opener, leaving them with Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel. Samuel remains a solid player, but Robinson has never lived up to his lofty draft status. Throw in the fact that Atlanta’s safeties are average at best, and Manning should have favorable matchups to work with most of the night. Not to mention that the loss of Grimes forces other players into different roles, and Manning is still one of the best in the business at taking advantage of weakness a defense has.

One player doesn’t always make or break a football team, but the loss of Grimes for the Falcons definitely handicaps them in this particular matchup. Manning and Ryan will be airing the ball out early and often, and while Denver has two experienced corners, Atlanta will be missing its best cover man. Throw in the fact that the Broncos have the better pass rush and a quarterback that has won his share of big games, and there is no reason that Manning and company can’t pull out a big road win. Both sides will make plenty of big plays on offense, but Denver’s ability to also make big plays on defense will allow them to cover the spread.

Prediction: Denver Broncos (+3) Cover the Spread 

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Atlanta -3
Total: Over/Under 52.5
Time: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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