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Tag Archive | "2012 Pocono 400 Preview"

2012 Pocono 400 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 Pocono 400 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: From its triangle shape to its flat, sweeping corners, Pocono Raceway is one track where drivers are never really comfortable. A car that is unstoppable at the front of the field can become mediocre back in traffic. Denny Hamlin experienced that first hand last season, leading the most laps in both races at the track, only to finish outside the top 15 each time. The track’s massive 2.5-mile layout produces laps times of nearly a minute. As a result, pit strategy and track position often decide the winner. The fastest car rarely wins at Pocono, which means conditions are right for an upset this Sunday. Bettors should try to take advantage of the situation, and here is a look at a few longshots that could get the job done.

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There are a lot of drivers that have better odds of winning this weekend’s race than Ryan Newman, but only three have a better average finish at Pocono in the last 10 years. He is a former winner at the track, and he has finished in the top five seven times in 20 career starts, including in his most recent start last August. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009, Newman he has finished in the top 15 in all six of his starts at Pocono. Last year, he finished ninth and fifth in his two starts. Newman’s tendency to qualify near the front of the field helps him a ton at Pocono since passing has always been difficult at the triangle-shaped track. Despite the rock solid all-around numbers at Pocono, Newman has 30/1 odds to win this weekend. For bettors, he has all the makings of a steal.

With an unimpressive 22.9 average finish at Pocono, it is easy to understand why Paul Menard is a 65/1 longshot to win this weekend. However, he has been showing steady improvement at the track the last two seasons. He finished 16th at the track in June of 2010, and he has finished in the top 15 in his three starts since. Menard finished a career-best 10th at the track last August, and it is clear that he is getting a feel for Pocono’s weird layout. If the trend of improvement continues this weekend, Menard could be in position to pull an upset. With pit strategy playing such a big role at the track, any driver near the front of the field has a chance. With is current odds, the potential reward with Menard is enticing.

Bettors looking for a real sleeper this weekend should consider 250/1 longshot David Reutimann. Thanks to Kurt Busch’s temper and potty mouth, he managed to get himself suspended for Sunday’s race. Reutimann was named as his replacement in the No. 51 Phoenix Racing Chevrolet, and while the team isn’t a powerhouse, it will be a big upgrade compared to his usual Tommy Baldwin Racing team. He has also finished as high as third at Pocono, and he has finished in the top 20 in three of his last four starts. If Reutimann can stay out of trouble, he should have no trouble staying on the lead lap thanks to the massive 2.5-mile layout of the track. Races at Pocono have a habit of being decided by fuel mileage, and with the right strategy call, Reutimann could make the most of his opportunity in the No. 51 car.

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Check out the latest 2012 Pocono 400 odds and predictions from’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!

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2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Sleepers to Win

2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Pocono 400 Favorites and Sleepers at at Pocono Raceway: NASCAR betting odds to win the 2012 Pocono 400 this Sunday, June 10th at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pennsylvania have been posted at all the major Las Vegas and best online sportsbooks with Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin having been installed as the 4/1 +400 favorite to win the 2012 Pocono 400.

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With three different corner layouts and a unique triangle shape, Pocono Raceway is definitely one of the trickier tracks on the schedule. A lack of banking in the turns only adds to the difficult passing conditions, and track position is king at the 2.5-mile triangle. Pit road problems and poor strategy will kill a driver’s chances to win, and a savvy crew chief and quick pit crew are just as important to success at Pocono as a fast car.

In the June race, Denny Hamlin dominated most of the afternoon, leading a race-high 76 laps. However, poor pit strategy cost him valuable track position, and Hamlin was never a factor in the late stages. Instead, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch battled it out for the lead down the stretch. A fast final stop by the No. 24 team crew ended up deciding the race, as Gordon drove away from push thanks to the clean air.

It was a reoccurring nightmare for Hamlin in the August event, as he again led the most laps, only to watch his track position disappear on pit road. Kurt and Kyle Busch then traded the top spot, with Kyle seemingly taking control. A late caution changed all that, and Brad Keselowski used a strong restart to snatch away the lead and drive off to the win. Even more impressively, Keselowski pulled out the victory despite driving with a broken ankle.

The Favorites – 2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

With three wins in the last four weeks, no driver is hotter than Jimmie Johnson as the series heads to Pocono. His 9.0 average finish at the track also happens to be the best in the series among active drivers. Johnson is a two-time winner at Pocono, and he finished fourth in both races last season. As well as he is running right now, another win is well within reach for the five-time champ.

Whenever the series visits Pocono, Denny Hamlin is a threat to win. He has made four trips to Victory Lane in 12 starts at the track, and he has finished sixth or better eight times. Hamlin has more wins at Pocono than at any other track in the series, and his 118.6 driver rating is by far the best among active drivers. His third win of 2012 and fifth win at Pocono could be on tap this weekend.

The Dark Horses – 2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Although he has yet to win at Pocono, Kyle Busch has been awful close the last couple of years. He has three finishes of third or better in his last four starts at the track, including a pair of second-place finishes. Busch finished third and second in two starts at Pocono in 2012, and the next step is a trip to Victory Lane. It could happen as early as this Sunday.

Bad luck has plagued Jeff Gordon all season long, but Pocono could be the track where he finally turns things around. He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he has finished sixth or better in three straight starts at the track. Gordon has led the third-most laps in the series in 2012 but has little to show for it. He could change that in a big way at Pocono Sunday.

The winless drought continues for Dale Earnhardt Jr., but he should have another good shot at changing that this weekend. Junior notched a pair of top-10 finishes at Pocono last season, and he is running even better in 2012. He leads the series with 10 top-10s in 13 races, and he is just 10 points out of the top spot in standings. Not to mention that Pocono is known for coming down fuel mileage, and Junior is one of the best in the business at conserving fuel.

Sleeper Specials – 2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Sitting a solid sixth in points halfway through the regular season, it is safe to say that Martin Truex Jr. is for real in 2012. Even in his down years, he has had some solid runs at Pocono, including three straight finishes of 12th or better entering Sunday’s race. In the middle of a career year, Truex could deliver a big performance at a Pocono track that has always been kind to him.

He is a human rollercoaster with up and down performances, but Juan Pablo Montoya has made some noise at Pocono on several occasions. He has finished eighth or better in four of his last six starts at the track, finishing as high as second during the stretch. The flat, sweeping turns at Pocono are often compared to the corners at road courses, and since Montoya is one of the best road racers in the series, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make a run at an upset this weekend.

Big Name to Avoid – 2012 Pocono 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

On paper, Kurt Busch looks like a great pick this weekend. After all, he is a two-time winner at Pocono, he owns the third-best driver rating at the track, and he finished second and third in two starts there last year. However, Busch’s results have plummeted in 2012 with his move to the single-car Phoenix Racing operation. Worse yet, Busch is clearly overdriving to compensate for his weaker equipment. Just 13 races into the season, Busch has already wrecked 15 cars.

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2012 Pocono 400 Odds – June 10th at Pocono Raceway.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Pocono 400
Denny Hamlin 4/1

Jimmie Johnson 4/1

Tony Stewart 8/1

Jeff Gordon 8/1

Kyle Busch 8/1

Carl Edwards 10/1

Brad Keselowski 12/1

Kevin Harvick 12/1

Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1

Greg Biffle 15/1

Kasey Kahne 15/1

Matt Kenseth 15/1

Martin Truex Jr 25/1

Ryan Newman 30/1

Mark Martin 40/1

Clint Bowyer 40/1

AJ Allmendinger 50/1

Marcos Ambrose 75/1

Joey Logano 75/1

Paul Menard 100/1

Jamie McMurray 100/1

Juan Montoya 100/1

Jeff Burton 100/1

Aric Almirola 200/1

Regan Smith 300/1

Landon Cassill 300/1

David Gilliland 300/1

Bobby Labonte 300/1

David Ragan 300/1

Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

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