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Tag Archive | "2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions"

2012 Kentucky Derby Free Picks: Favorites to Avoid Betting On

2012 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Favorites to Avoid Betting On: When placing a bet, it is only natural to gravitate toward the favorites, and horse racing is no exception. Sure, the payoff isn’t great, but there is something to be said about the level of comfort that comes with picking the horse that is supposed to the next best thing to a sure thing. However, picking the favorite in the Kentucky Derby has been anything but beneficial for bettors for more than three decades. Since 1979, the favorite has gone on to win the Run for the Roses just five times. In other words, being tabbed the favorite has been more of a curse than a blessing. With that in mind, here are a few frontrunners bettors should shy away from.

1.      Bodemeister (9/2 odds)

After his dominating win in the Arkansas Derby, I liked Bodemeister enough to list him as a sleeper. Apparently, oddsmakers thought enough of his victory to make him a co-favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, and I’m not buying this horse at those odds. For starters, the favorite has won the Run for the Roses just twice in the last seven years. More importantly, Bodemeister has run just four races this year and didn’t run a single race as a two year old. Inexperience hasn’t been a precursor to success at Churchill Downs, as just one horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two year old. When a horse is trying to do something that hasn’t been done since 1882, I want a little more bang for my buck than 9/2 odds.

2.      Dullahan (7/1 odds)

Like Bodemeister, I thought Dullahan would be a nice sleeper pick prior to the odds being released. However, his 7/1 odds more than scared me off because of the horse’s sketchy resume on dirt and another interesting stat. Yes, Dullahan has a Hall of Fame jockey and a win in the Blue Grass Stakes, but his 0-3 record at Churchill Downs raises some eyebrows. Also, only two horses in the last 57 years have won the Kentucky Derby after needing four of more races to notch their first win. For the record, Dullahan won in his fifth career start. I was willing to overlook his issues on dirt surfaces and the less-than-comforting history when I thought he would be somewhat of a longshot, but at his current odds, it’s tough to justify.

3.      Alpha (10/1 odds)

On the surface, Alpha looks like a solid pick. With three wins and two runner-up efforts in six starts, this horse has proven himself in both shorter and longer events. One of those second-place efforts came in the Wood Memorial when he gave undefeated Gemologist all he could handle. More importantly, Alpha’s bloodlines include an English Triple Crown winner and a Preakness winner. Despite all the positives, Alpha has had some issues with his temperament and his breaks from the starting gate. In a 20-horse field, a poor break is a death sentence, and given Alpha’s aggressive personality, a crowded track could also cause some problems. Yes, the question marks are minor compared to other horses, but when the reward is only coming at 10/1 odds, they are red flags.

Check out updated 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and 2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions from NSAwins.com!

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
900 My Adonis +5550
901 Daddy Long Legs +2250
902 Optimizer +3250
903 Take Charge Indy +1425
904 Union Rags +425
905 Dullahan +550
906 Bodemeister +395
907 Rousing Sermon +5550
908 Creative Cause +1050
909 Trinniberg +4250
910 Daddy Nose Best +2250
911 Alpha +1250
912 Prospective +4250
913 Went The Day Well +2525
914 Hansen +1150
915 Gemologist +525
916 El Padrino +2050
917 Done Talking +3550
918 Sabercat +3550
919 I’ll Have Another +1150
920 Liaison +4050

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Posted in HorsesComments Off on 2012 Kentucky Derby Free Picks: Favorites to Avoid Betting On

2012 Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds and Free Picks – Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers to Win the 138th Kentucky Derby

2012 Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds, Expert Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Sleepers to Win the 138th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: Whether you call it the Run for the Roses, the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports or just the Kentucky Derby, Saturday will mark the 138th running of the most famous event in the world of horse racing. Churchill Downs will play host to the epic race that has been as unpredictable as it has been exciting in recent years. In fact, the winners of the five derby prep events leading up to Saturday’s race have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby just 7 percent of the time during the past 20 years.

Last year, Animal Kingdom pulled off the latest upset at Churchill Downs, becoming the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby despite making just four starts prior to the race. Ironically, winning jockey John Velazquez was scheduled to ride Uncle Mo in the event until that horse was scratched in the days leading up to the race and Animal Kingdom’s original jockey was injured, as well. It was a strange set of circumstances, but it led to a memorable result, as Animal Kingdom held of Nehro down the stretch to deliver the win.

Of course, winning the Triple Crown is the ultimate goal of any owner and trainer, but the Kentucky Derby is where it all begins. Winning the Belmont and the Preakness are special, but winners of those races are often forgotten long before winners at Churchill Downs. The exceptions are those legendary horses that win all three races, and for one horse, the path to potential immortality begins Saturday.

The Favorites – 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds, Free Picks and Predictions

Not only did Gemologist win the Wood Memorial, but the horse is undefeated in five career starts. More importantly, two of his five victories have come at Churchill Downs. Undefeated horses don’t exactly have a great record in the Kentucky Derby, winning just eight times. However, it is still easier to trust a horse that has yet to lose rather than one that has yet to win, especially when two of those wins have come at the same track where Saturday’s big event will be held.

Despite a third-place finish in the Florida Derby, Union Rags has put together a strong resume leading up to the Kentucky Derby. The horse has four victories in six races, as well as a second-place run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which is run at Churchill Downs. Although it isn’t ideal for Union Rags to enter Saturday’s event on the heels of his worst finish, his past performances against tough competition are impossible to ignore. It isn’t an accident that Union Rags has been one of the most talked about horses in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby by both the media and the competition.

The Dark Horses – 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds, Free Picks and Predictions

Reliable and rock solid is the best way to describe Creative Cause. The horse has made eight career starts, winning four times and finishing third or better in all eight races. Creative Cause won the San Felipe and narrowly missed winning the Santa Anita Derby as well, finishing second by inches. The horse has been a contender in every race it has run, and while Creative Cause might not be the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, history says he should at least be the part of trifecta wager placed.

Last year, Hansen claimed the two-year-old championship, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He hasn’t exactly been dominant in his follow-up campaign this season, but the horse hasn’t been bad by any means. Hansen won at Gotham and finished second in his other two starts, including a runner-up performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. Hansen showed last season that he can perform like an elite horse, and if he can recapture the form this weekend, he could win an even bigger race at Churchill Downs.

Sleeper Specials – 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds, Free Picks and Predictions

While trainer Bob Baffert is well known in the world of horse racing, his inexperienced horse Bodemeister is new to the scene. In fact, the horse didn’t run a single race last season and has made just four starts this season. However, a dominating victory by more than nine lengths in the Arkansas Derby has thrust Bodemeister into the spotlight. The horse clearly has more talent than even Baffert expected, but he still has long odds to overcome. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby without running a single race as a two year old.

It is easy to dismiss Dullahan as a contender because of the horse’s 0-3 record at Churchill Downs. However, he did pick up a victory against tough field in the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this season. Throw in three-time Kentucky Derby-winning and Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux, and Dullahan should be far from outclassed this weekend. The horse’s suspect record on dirt is a bit concerning, but with three finishes of second or better in his last four starts, there is no doubt Dullahan has the talent to surprise the favorites.

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
1001 Union Rags +375
1002 Hansen +1425
1003 Creative Cause +1025
1004 El Padrino +2050
1006 Bodemeister +405
1007 I’ll Have Another +1050
1009 Went The Day Well +2050
1011 Gemologist +550
1012 Dullahan +625
1016 Mark Valeski +3050
1017 Prospective +3250
1021 Alpha +1425
1023 Liaison +3850
1025 Sabercat +3550
1029 Take Charge Indy +1250
1030 Daddy Long Legs +1650
1034 Optimizer +4250
1035 Daddy Nose Best +1550
1036 Done Talking +2550
1039 Trinninberg +3550
1040 Rousing Sermon +2550

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Posted in HorsesComments Off on 2012 Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds and Free Picks – Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers to Win the 138th Kentucky Derby

2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and Favorites – Vegas Odds to Win 138th Kentucky Derby

2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and Predictions – Vegas Lines and Expert Picks to Win the 138th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: Early Vegas odds and lines to win the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on May 5, 2012 are updated LIVE on NSAwins.com daily and the vegas oddsmakers have installed Union Rags(Michael Matz, trainer; Julien Leparoux, jockey) and Bodemeister(Bob Baffert, trainer; Mike Smith, jockey) the early 5/1 +500 odds favorites to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Other horses with strong early vegas odds to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby are Gemologist(+700 odds to win), Creative Cause(+1000 odds to win), Alpha(+1000 odds to win), Dullahan(+1000 odds to win), Hansen(+1200 odds to win) , I’ll Have Another(+1200 odds to win) and Take Charge Indy(+1500 odds to win). Union Rags will be entering the 1¼-mile Derby coming off a somewhat dissapointing 3rd place finish at the Florida Derby but finished strong after struggling for most of the race. Bodemeister will be coming into the Kentucky Derby riding high after running an impressive race to finish 1st at the Arkansas Derby just 3 weeks prior to the running of the 138th Kentucky Derby. That seems to be the only question about Bodemeister is how he will respond with just a few weeks rest before the Run for the Roses. Gemoligist(Todd Pletcher, trainer; Javier Castellano, jockey) has the 3rd best odds to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby right now and is undefeated in all five of his starts including an impressive victory at the Wood Memorial. NSAwins.com’s expert handicappers will be making their official 2012 Kentucky Derby Picks on friday before the big race so be sure to check back during Kentucky Derby week for more articles, picks, predictions and updated odds to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
1001 Union Rags +475
1002 Hansen +1605
1003 Creative Cause +1050
1004 El Padrino +1850
1006 Bodemeister +375
1007 I’ll Have Another +1050
1008 Howe Great +3450
1009 Went The Day Well +2150
1011 Gemologist +675
1012 Dullahan +525
1014 Secret Circle
1016 Mark Valeski +3450
1017 Prospective +4450
1021 Alpha +1125
1023 Liaison +3250
1025 Sabercat +3450
1029 Take Charge Indy +1225
1030 Daddy Long Legs +1225
1033 Reveron +2550
1034 Optimizer +4250
1035 Daddy Nose Best +1450
1036 Done Talking +2050
1037 Ever So Lucky +3250
1038 Castaway +2250
1039 Trinninberg +2750

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Posted in HorsesComments Off on 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and Favorites – Vegas Odds to Win 138th Kentucky Derby


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