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Tag Archive | "2012 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks"

2012 Kentucky Derby Day Picks: Win, Place and Show Predictions

2012 Kentucky Derby Day Picks: Win, Place and Show Predictions: It’s Derby Day, and even though it’s also Cinco de Mayo, don’t expect margaritas to replace mint juleps at Churchill Downs. In addition to the tough competition from the 20-horse field, weather could play a factor in the 138th addition of the Run for the Roses. Even though the rain should be gone by the time the race begins, a sloppy track and a humid evening could still take their toll on the horses. It’s just one more thing for bettors to consider before locking in their final picks for arguably the most-anticipated event in the world of horse racing.

2012 Kentucky Derby Day Free Picks: Win, Place and Show Predictions

Winner: Gemologist (6/1 odds)

What’s not to love about Gemologist? The horse is undefeated in five career starts, including a pair of wins at Churchill Downs. Superstitious bettors will point out that only eight undefeated horses have won the Kentucky Derby, but he real knock on this horse are that he hasn’t faced tough enough competition. However, show me a horse that has faced a field that can come close to comparing to Saturday’s lineup. Gemologist has seen the distances of his races steadily increased leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and he has answered any questions about his stamina by remaining undefeated. Gemologist is a proven winner, and more importantly, he is familiar with and has been successful on the Churchill Downs’ surface.

Place: Hansen (10/1 odds)

Hansen won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last season, beating Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags. Throw in a solid post draw and one of the best jockey’s around in Ramon Dominguez, and Hansen should be in perfect position to run his race. The biggest question mark is going to be whether or not Dominguez can keep the speedy horse under control until the stretch run, but drawing post No. 14 eased a lot of those concerns. Hansen shouldn’t have to deal with a lot of traffic out of the gate, and he should be in position to pounce on the other sprinters that jump out front early.

Show: Creative Cause (11/1 odds)

He has made eight career starts, and Creative Cause has finished in the top three in all eight races. He has also won half of his starts, including a victory in the San Felipe. More than anything, Creative Cause is an attractive pick because of his consistency. He has run on a variety of surfaces against a variety of competition, and he has found a way to finish near the front each and every time. This horse is experienced and battle tested, and there is no reason to expect him to suddenly underperform in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Check out updated 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and 2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions from NSAwins.com!

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
901 Daddy Long Legs +2850
902 Optimizer +5250
903 Take Charge Indy +895
904 Union Rags +455
905 Dullahan +825
906 Bodemeister +410
907 Rousing Sermon +5250
908 Creative Cause +1150
909 Trinniberg +5050
910 Daddy Nose Best +1150
911 Alpha +1425
912 Prospective +3250
913 Went The Day Well +1450
914 Hansen +1050
915 Gemologist +825
916 El Padrino +2050
917 Done Talking +5050
918 Sabercat +3850
919 I’ll Have Another +1150
920 Liaison +5050

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2012 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks: Longshots to Bet On

2012 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks – Longshots to Bet On: The early co-favorites for this weekend’s Kentucky Derby are Bodemeister and Union Rags, with both horses getting 9/2 odds to win the 138th running of the famed race. However, savvy bettors should be more concerned with the longshots that could pull off an upset, and not just because of the potentially big payoff. After all, the favorite has won the Run for the Roses just twice in the last seven years. More importantly, two of the eventual winners during the stretch have had 50/1 odds entering the race. With that in mind, here are a few horses that could defy their odds and deliver a win.

2012 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks: Longshots to Bet On

1.      Trinniberg (40/1 odds)

If the Kentucky Derby was a seven-furlong race, it wouldn’t even be a contest. Trinniberg is the fastest sprinter in the field, and he has crushed the competition in his shorter events. The downside is that he may or may not have the endurance to go the distance this weekend. Since Trinniberg has never run in a race longer than seven furlongs, the Kentucky Derby’s 10-furlong layout is a complete wild card. If he does happen to have the stamina to sustain his torrid pace, the payoff for bettors would be sizeable.

2.      Liaison (40/1 odds)

Bob Baffert is one of the most-decorated trainers in horse racing history, and as mentioned above, his horse Bodemeister is one of the favorites to win at Churchill Downs this weekend. However, Liaison is Baffert’s other entry in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, and Baffert’s success in big races alone makes the horse an intriguing pick. Liaison also has a proven jockey in Martin Garcia, and the horse has been bred for balance. If it turns out that he has the right combination of stamina and speed, he could be near the front when it matters. Bodemeister is getting the headlines entering the race, but Liaison could steal the show when all is said and done.

3.      Done Talking (50/1 odds)

He won the Illinois Derby in his last start, and despite his long odds, Done Talking has greatness in his genes. His bloodline includes a former Kentucky Derby winner, as well as a winner of the English Triple Crown. Granted, a horse’s pedigree is by no means a guarantee of success, but it does take a special horse to win any of the Triple Crown races. After all, less than 10 percent of the horses that has won the derby prep events in the last 20 years have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, but that doesn’t stop them from being named the favorites. If the horses that run the best in the races leading up to the Kentucky Derby are considered threats to win despite the statistics saying otherwise, why not take a shot on a horse with one of the best bloodlines?

4.      My Adonis (odds not available)

Bettors will really have to be diligent in order to make this potential bet work. My Adonis is currently not in the 20-horse field for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, but he is listed as an also-eligible. If one of the horses currently in the field decides to withdraw, My Adonis will grab the spot. However, bettors will have to wait until Friday to know for sure. If he does get into the field, My Adonis is sure to be a longshot. That being said, the horse has been bred for endurance, and although he has been largely a disappointment at this point in his career, the added distance of the Kentucky Derby could play to his strengths.

Check out updated 2012 Kentucky Derby Odds and 2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions from NSAwins.com!

Updated Odds to Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
900 My Adonis +5550
901 Daddy Long Legs +2250
902 Optimizer +3250
903 Take Charge Indy +1425
904 Union Rags +425
905 Dullahan +550
906 Bodemeister +395
907 Rousing Sermon +5550
908 Creative Cause +1050
909 Trinniberg +4250
910 Daddy Nose Best +2250
911 Alpha +1250
912 Prospective +4250
913 Went The Day Well +2525
914 Hansen +1150
915 Gemologist +525
916 El Padrino +2050
917 Done Talking +3550
918 Sabercat +3550
919 I’ll Have Another +1150
920 Liaison +4050

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Posted in HorsesComments Off on 2012 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks: Longshots to Bet On


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