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Tag Archive | "2012 Indy 500 Expert Picks"

2012 Indianapolis 500 Vegas Odds: Why Marco Andretti is a Threat to Win the Indy 500

2012 Indianapolis 500 Vegas Odds – Why Marco Andretti is a Threat to Win the Indy 500: Over the years, the name Andretti has become synonymous with the IndyCar Series, and more importantly, the Indianapolis 500. Unfortunately, the Andretti family’s fame at Indianapolis stems from the horrible luck experienced by generations of drivers. In 1969, racing legend Mario Andretti won the Indy 500. Since his victory, several members of the Andretti family have combined for zero wins in 65 starts in the famed event. From Michael Andretti leading by more than half the track only to suffer a broken fuel pump with 11 laps to go in 1992 to Mario losing a victory four months after the race after a penalty on Bobby Unser was overturned, the long list of close calls and heartbreaks borders on surreal.

Marco has already done his part to add to the infamous curse. In his Indy 500 debut in 2006, he was leading the race in the closing laps with his father Michael running second. Instead of a vindicating 1-2 finish for father and son, the race ended up being another jagged pill to swallow. Sam Hornish Jr. worked his way past Michael with two laps to go and then passed Marco for the lead in the final 400 feet of the final lap. Marco lost the race by just 0.0635 seconds – the second-smallest margin in the race’s history.

Disappointment aside, Marco has actually had a lot of success at Indianapolis in his young career. In six starts, he has three top-five finishes and four top-10s. In addition to his runner-up effort in 2006, Marco has added third-place finishes in 2008 and 2010. At his current 10/1 odds, his strong track record is definitely encouraging for bettors. After all, the first step toward breaking the course and returning the Andretti name to the Borg-Warner Trophy is consistently running near the front. Marco has that covered.

On the downside, he has been anything but consistent in 2012.He is sitting 19th in points after the first five races of the year and has yet to finish in the top 10. However, Marco’s strength has never been the road course portion of the schedule. He is at his best on the fast ovals, and Indianapolis is as fast as they come. Not to mention the fact that his Andretti Autosport equipment has performed well as a whole. His teammates James Hinchcliffe and Ryan Hunter-Reay are third and fourth in points, respectively, heading into the Indy 500.

More importantly, Marco’s Andretti Autosport team has looked strong since testing began at Indianapolis. On qualifying day, Andretti Autpsport’s three drivers qualified second, third and fourth. Seeing all three team cars perform well is a telling sign, and Andretti Autosport is heading into Sunday’s race with the right aero setup and engine package to contend. Marco will start fourth out of the trio, but his past success at the track makes him the more intriguing option than his teammates Hinchcliffe and Hunter-Reay.

On one hand, betting on Marco is a lot like betting on the Chicago Cubs, but if the Boston Red Sox can finally win a World Series, an Andretti can return to Victory Circle at Indianapolis. The track has been one of his best on the IndyCar Series schedule, and Andretti Autosport is looking as strong as it ever has at Indy. Marco has finished third or better in half his starts in the Indianapolis 500, and at 10/1 vegas odds, he has the talent and the equipment to deliver a nice return on investment.

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2012 Indianapolis 500 Odds – May 27th at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Indy 500
Driver to win the Indy Indianapolis 500
701 Dario Franchitti +900
702 Scott Dixon +900
703 Helio Castroneves +500
704 Ryan Briscoe +300
705 Will Power +600
706 Marco Andretti +800
707 Tony Kanaan +1200
708 Ryan Hunter Reay +1200
709 James Hinchcliffe +800
710 JR Hildebrand +4000
711 Oriol Servia +8000
712 Alex Tagliani +5000
713 Graham Rahal +4000
714 Justin Wilson +10000
715 Rubens Barichello +5000
716 Ed Carpenter +8000
717 Takuma Sato +8000
718 Field +2000

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines and updated 2012 Indy 500 Odds from BOVADA below:


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2012 Indianapolis 500 Free Picks: Why Pole-Sitter Ryan Briscoe is a Bad Bet

2012 Indianapolis 500 Free Picks – Why Pole-Sitter Ryan Briscoe is a Bad Bet: When Ryan Briscoe grabbed the pole for this weekend Indianapolis 500, he not only set a record for the smallest victory margin for any pole-sitter in the race’s history, but he set himself up as an early favorite to win the 96th running of the Indy 500, as well. In fact, oddsmakers have made Briscoe the overall favorite for Sunday’s race, giving him 6/5 odds to win. However, a closer look at Briscoe reveals that oddsmakers may be reading too much into his pole-winning performance, making him a very overrated option for bettors this weekend.

Yes, pole sitters have had a lot of success in the Indianapolis 500. More race winners (20) have started from the pole than from any other position, and 42 winners have started from the first row. In the last six years, no winner has started worse than sixth, and five eventual winners started from the first row, including three from the pole. Again, Briscoe does have an advantage starting up front, but there have been plenty of drivers that have failed to win after starting first, and Briscoe is likely to join that list.

For starters, he has always been a solid qualifier at Indianapolis, posting an 11.0 average starting position. However, his average finish at the Indy 500 is just 17.3 in six starts. Briscoe has just two top-10s and only a single top-five in those six starts, and his top-five finish came way back in 2007. Since then he hasn’t finished better than 15th in four Indy 500 starts, and in three of those starts, he qualified fourth or better. In other words, Briscoe is no stranger to starting on the first row at Indy, but finishing anywhere near the front on race day has been foreign to him.

Given his odds, his struggle at Indianapolis alone should scare of bettors. To make matters worse, Briscoe has displayed an overall downward trend in the IndyCar Series the last few years. In his debut season of 2008, he won two races. He followed it up in 2009 with three victories and 13 top-five finishes. In the two-plus season since, Briscoe has managed just one win and 13 top-five finishes combined. Last season, he posted a career-worst 10.8 average finish, and he is on pace to get worse this season, entering the Indy 500 with a 13.0 average finish.

Had Briscoe been somewhat of a longshot to win Sunday’s race, his pole-winning time would have made him an intriguing longshot to bet on. However, making him the outright favorite is ridiculous. We are talking about a driver that has had a history of qualifying near the front at Indy, only to underperform and fade on race day. Throw in the fact that he has been mired in the worst two-year stretch of his career, and what is the incentive to place a bet on Briscoe this weekend? The payoff is going to be minimal, and there is nothing in his history that suggests Sunday’s race will end in anything but disappointment for Briscoe.

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2012 Indianapolis 500 Odds – May 27th at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Indy 500
Driver to win the Indy Indianapolis 500
701 Dario Franchitti +900
702 Scott Dixon +900
703 Helio Castroneves +500
704 Ryan Briscoe +300
705 Will Power +600
706 Marco Andretti +800
707 Tony Kanaan +1200
708 Ryan Hunter Reay +1200
709 James Hinchcliffe +800
710 JR Hildebrand +4000
711 Oriol Servia +8000
712 Alex Tagliani +5000
713 Graham Rahal +4000
714 Justin Wilson +10000
715 Rubens Barichello +5000
716 Ed Carpenter +8000
717 Takuma Sato +8000
718 Field +2000

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines and updated 2012 Indy 500 Odds from BOVADA below:


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2012 Indianapolis 500 Predictions: Why Rookie Josef Newgarden is Worth the Gamble

2012 Indianapolis 500 Predictions – Why Rookie Josef Newgarden is Worth the Gamble: The name Josef Newgarden doesn’t exactly ring a lot of bells in the world open-wheel racing, especially at a track as famous as Indianapolis Motor Speedway. However, the 21-year-old rookie drivers could definitely make a name for himself with a strong showing in Sunday’s Indianapolis 500. In fact, a strong showing may be just the beginning for Newgarden. There have been several signs in the days leading up to the race that point to a really, really good run for the rookie. At 20/1 odds, bettors may just want to take a gamble that his run ends with a life-changing trip to Victory Lane.

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Looking at the 2012 point standings, it is easy to understand why Newgarden didn’t get much respect from the oddsmakers. He is 22nd in points entering Sunday’s race and has yet to collect a top-10 finish. However, the early portion of the IndyCar Series schedule is filled with road courses, and clearly, they are not Newgarden’s forte. Indianapolis, on the other hand, is a massive, 2.5-mile oval track that is all about speed, and the more traditional type of track should favor Newgarden. After all, he won the Firestone Indy Lights Series championship last season, winning three of the six oval track races in the process. Granted, Indianapolis wasn’t one of the tracks he won at, but the rookie is clearly most comfortable and at his best at oval tracks.

While his background and past success at oval tracks is encouraging, it is Newgarden’s practice speeds that should really grab the attention of bettors. He paced the field during a session last Wednesday and followed it up by ranking second the following afternoon. Newgarden went on to qualify seventh for the Indianapolis 500 this past weekend, making him the only non-Chevrolet starting in the top 10. His starting spot puts him close enough to the front that he won’t have to overuse his equipment or his fuel to keep touch with the leaders, and at the same time, he is far enough back that he won’t have to worry about setting the pace as he works out any early nervousness that is bound to come with making his first Indy 500 starts. Newgarden’s No. 67 Honda has been fast since it unloaded at Indy, and he should have no problem being competitive from the drop of the green Sunday.

Naysayers will argue that Newgarden’s chances of winning as a rookie are slim because the pressure of being on such a big stage without any prior experience is too much to overcome. However, eight drivers have won the Indianapolis 500 as rookies, and while that isn’t a lot, rookie winners aren’t unheard of either. In fact, rookies have gone to Victory Lane twice since 2000, with Juan Pablo Montoya and Helio Castroneves accomplishing the feat in back-to-back years. Not to mention that J.R. Hildebrand came within one corner of becoming the ninth rookie to win the race just last season. Needless to say, discounting Newgarden simply because he is a rookie is a big mistake.

With the exception of experience, Newgarden has everything a driver needs to win the Indianapolis 500. His championship and oval track wins in the Indy Lights Series last season are a prime example his talent and potential, and his practice times last week at Indianapolis speak for themselves. He secured a strong starting position during qualifying, and now, he finds himself with a very fast car within striking distance of the leaders. Yes, he still has to go 200 laps without making any mistakes, but with 20/1 odds, the potential for a sizeable payout makes Newgarden worth betting on this weekend.

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2012 Indianapolis 500 Odds – May 27th at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Indy 500
Driver to win the Indy Indianapolis 500
701 Dario Franchitti +900
702 Scott Dixon +900
703 Helio Castroneves +500
704 Ryan Briscoe +300
705 Will Power +600
706 Marco Andretti +800
707 Tony Kanaan +1200
708 Ryan Hunter Reay +1200
709 James Hinchcliffe +800
710 JR Hildebrand +4000
711 Oriol Servia +8000
712 Alex Tagliani +5000
713 Graham Rahal +4000
714 Justin Wilson +10000
715 Rubens Barichello +5000
716 Ed Carpenter +8000
717 Takuma Sato +8000
718 Field +2000

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines and updated 2012 Indy 500 Odds from BOVADA below:


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