2011 Kentucky Derby Day Final Picks and Predictions – Who Will Win, Place and Show 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs May 7th, 2011: Uncle Mo has been one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby for months, and the horse was heading into the race day with the second-best odds to win in the field. However, an ongoing bout with an intestinal virus has forced his trainer Todd Pletcher to scratch Uncle Mo for the first leg of the Triple Crown. With one of the top options out of the running, the landscape of this year’s Kentucky Derby just got a little more interesting for bettors.
For those looking to put some money on the favorite, Dialed In is now the clear-cut choice. At +400, the horse was already the morning-line favorite. With seemingly his toughest competitor now out of the mix, the race is his to lose.
A horse that nearly beat Dialed In at the Florida Derby and could pull off the upset at Churchill Downs is Shackleford. At +1,200, the horse is enough of a longshot to provide a nice payoff for bettors, but at the same time, Shackleford has shown enough muscle during the prep races be considered a legitimate threat.
Archarcharch (+1,000) and Nehro (+600) also figure to be in the mix Saturday. Nehro has just a single win on his resume, but his closing prowess has been noticed even in defeat. With the Kentucky Derby being the longest event these horses will have faced, Nehro’s ability to finish out races could become a huge advantage. Archarcharch boasts a similar history of handling long distances well, but he has an even better list of past accomplishments. With the payoff being a bit better for Archarcharch, bettors might want to lean in that direction this weekend.
Atop the list of hyped horses to avoid remains Brilliant Speed. With his +3,000 odds, the horse has become a trendy sleeper pick for many. While this year’s Kentucky Derby figures to be a wide-open affair, there are a lot of red flags when it comes to Brilliant Speed. The main issue is the horse’s lack of experience on dirt surfaces. In fact, all but one of his prep races was held on a synthetic or turf surface. Track conditions are supposed to be favorable, which should help the horse, but Brilliant Speed doesn’t have the experience typically seen from eventual Kentucky Derby champions.
2011 Kentucky Derby Day PREDICTIONS:
WIN: Shackleford PLACE: Dialed In SHOW: Archarcharch
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