2013 NFL AFC Championship Game Picks: Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NFL Playoff Picks 1/20/2013: For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Ravens (12-6) will meet the New England Patriots (13-4) in the AFC Championship Game with a spot in the Super Bowl up for grabs. Last season’s matchup was a back-and-forth affair, but Baltimore ultimately came up short after a would-be, game-winning touchdown pass was dropped by Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff shanked a would-be, game-tying field goal. It was an epic battle between the two franchises that have been the most consistent in the league over the past decade, and as they prepare for rematch, the Patriots are eight-point favorites in Foxboro.
Not only is the game a rematch of last year’s conference title game, but it is a rematch of a Week 3 meeting from earlier this year, as well. That game was in Baltimore, and after New England jumped out to a 13-0 lead, the Ravens rallied in the fourth quarter and won 31-30 on Justin Tucker field goal as time expired. Both Tom Brady and Joe Flacco threw for more than 300 yards in the game, but while the Patriots managed just 77 rushing yards on 34 carries, Baltimore’s Ray Rice topped 100 yards on just 20 carries. Ravens’ receiver Torrey Smith had a big game, as well, tallying 126 yards and a pair of scores.
On paper, the Patriots are the superior offensive team. New England led the NFL in scoring this year and ranked fourth in passing and seventh in rushing. The unit won’t have Rob Gronkowski after the tight end rebroke his arm last weekend, but Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez are among the targets still available for Brady. Baltimore’s offense did rank in the top 15 in both rushing and passing, as well, but the scoring outputs weren’t always consistent. That being said, the Ravens do have the ability to make explosive plays thanks to the speed of Smith and fellow receiver Jacoby Jones.
Defensively, both teams have issues in the secondary. Baltimore’s problems have had a lot to do with injuries, but in either case, big plays could be available for both sides in the passing game. Big plays on the ground could be a different story. Led by massive nose tackle Vince Wilfork and a strong corps of linebackers, the Patriots had a top-10 rush defense this season. Baltimore’s run defense doesn’t look great on paper, but the unit has played much better in the postseason since linebacker Ray Lewis has been back from injury. Overall, there should be some hard hitting in the trenches.
The Ravens Win If:
Beating the Patriots requires controlling New England’s passing attack. In particular, the Ravens need to make sure that Brady isn’t able to connect on many big plays down the field. If Baltimore’s defense does what it did to Denver’s Peyton Manning last weekend and forces Brady to take the underneath throws all game, New England’s powerful offense becomes much more manageable. Offensively, Flacco needs to attack the Patriots’ secondary. Baltimore’s offense has been inconsistent from game to game and even drive to drive, but the Ravens can put points on the board in a hurry thanks to speed in their receiving corps. If Lewis and the defense can keep Baltimore within striking distance, Flacco can eventually hit the big play to tip the scales in favor of the Ravens.
The Patriots Win If:
Plain and simple, the Patriots need to take away the deep ball from Flacco. The Baltimore QB has a strong arm and speedy receivers to work with, but methodically moving the ball down his field on long drives isn’t his forte. Flacco essentially made four big throws in the Ravens’ win against Denver, and three of them were long touchdown passes. If he has to make precise throws in tight coverage, history says he doesn’t have the accuracy to get the job done. Meanwhile, Brady is one of the best in the business and craving up defenses with a variety of passes while remaining mistake free. If New England can make sure this game comes down to which QB can lead their team up and down the field and into scoring position the most times, Brady and company will be heading back to the Super Bowl.
Bottom Line:
On one hand, the numbers certainly seem to side with the Patriots. New England is 7-1 in AFC title games, including a perfect 4-0 at home. Not to mention the fact that the Patriots are 5-1 against Baltimore all-time in Foxboro. That being said, it is tough to ignore the results of the last two meetings. Both games have come down to the wire and have been decided by three points and one point, respectively. From a matchup standpoint, the Ravens have the speedy receivers to take advantage of New England’s suspect secondary and a battle-tested defense that knows how to get the job done on big stages. From an emotional standpoint, the Ravens just knocked off another high-powered offense led by a future Hall of Fame QB, and there is no doubt that the team is rallying around Lewis after he announced that he would retire after the year. In the end, I’m not sure either will be enough to push the Ravens into the Super Bowl, but I do know that eight points is a massive spread given the circumstances. Win or lose, Lewis and company take this game to the wire.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (+8) Cover the Spread
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: New England -7.5
Total: Over/Under 52
Time: 6:30 PM EST on CBS
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