2015 Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 Free Picks & Expert Predictions: Top Sleepers: Pocono Raceway will host Sunday’s Cup Series event, and although the track is often knocked for its boring, long green flag stretches of racing, the track happens to be one of the most complex from a strategy standpoint. The tracks massive 2.5-mile layout and odd triangle shape lead to lap times that approach a minute in length. As a result, drivers can actually pit under green without losing a lap. As a result, crew chiefs are constantly looking to stretch fuel and play with tire strategy in order to get their drivers in clean air at the end of the race, but pitting too soon or too late can both have disastrous consequences. Hit the right strategy, and a team can certainly steal a win away from drivers with faster cars. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few drivers that could be in position to pull off an upset this weekend at Pocono.
While he hasn’t consistently led a ton of laps at Pocono, Joey Logano is emerging as one of the better drivers at the track. He outdueled Mark Martin for a win at the track in June of 2012, and overall, he has five top-15 finishes in his last six starts. Logano has actually been even better since joining Team Penske, logging three top-10s in four starts with the team, including a third-place finish last summer. He could be on the verge of another trip to victory lane at Pocono.
Although Pocono has never been his best track, Martin Truex Jr. did manage a top-10 last June in his first trip to the “Tricky Triangle” with Furniture Row Racing. More importantly, he has been one of the strongest drivers all year, especially in recent weeks. Truex’s 12 top-10s through 13 races are tied for the most in the series, and he actually led the most laps in three consecutive races. It is only a matter of time before he ends of in victory lane.
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It has been a miserable couple of seasons for Tony Stewart, but the last time he actually had a car capable of winning a race was last June at Pocono when a speeding penalty cost him the lead and a chance at a win. For his career, Stewart is a two-time winner at Pocono, and he has four top-10s in his last six starts, including three top-five finishes. If Stewart is going to make any noise this season, Pocono is one of his best bets.
The sample size is small, but Kyle Larson did flash plenty of upside at Pocono as a rookie last season. He actually finished fifth in his track debut, and he followed that performance up with an 11th-place run in the summer race. Granted, he has been in a bit of a sophomore slump, but Larson is coming off a top-five run at Dover last weekend, and the talented youngster could ride the momentum to a big performance at Pocono this weekend.
He has been showing signs of life in recent weeks, and Greg Biffle has always been able to make some noise at Pocono. He won at the track in 2010, and he has three top-10s in his last four starts. In fact, Biffle has two top-five finishes at Pocono since 2013, finishing second in the June race two years ago and finishing fifth last August. Pocono is a unique track, and Biffle is one of the drivers that know how to handle the “Tricky Triangle.”
Driving for an underfunded Front Row Motorsports team last year, David Ragan managed a pair of top-20 finishes at Pocono, making it one of his best tracks. This year, an injury to Brian Vickers has him driving for Michael Waltrip Racing, and the serious upgrade in equipment could allow Ragan to turn his top-20 finishes from last year into something special this weekend.
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Odds to win the 2015 Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400
Kevin Harvick #4 +450
Jimmie Johnson #48 +500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 +700
Kurt Busch #41 +750
Jeff Gordon #24 +800
Denny Hamlin #11 +850
Brad Keselowski #2 +1100
Martin Truex Jr. #78 +1200
Joey Logano #22 +1200
Carl Edwards #19 +1400
Kyle Busch #18 +1400
Kasey Kahne #5 +1400
Matt Kenseth #20 +1600
Kyle Larson #42 +1600
Jamie McMurray #1 +5000
Tony Stewart #14 +5000
Ryan Newman #31 +6600
Greg Biffle #16 +7500
Clint Bowyer #15 +7500
David Ragan #55 +10000
Austin Dillon #3 +10000
Paul Menard #27 +10000
A.J. Allmendinger #47 +25000
Danica Patrick #10 +25000
Aric Almirola #43 +25000
Casey Mears #13 +50000
Justin Allgaier #51 +50000
Trevor Bayne #6 +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #17 +50000
Sam Hornish Jr. #9 +50000
Ty Dillon #33 +50000
Brett Moffitt #34 +100000
Travis Kvapil #32 +100000
Landon Cassill #40 +100000
Jeb Burton #26 +100000
J.J Yeley #23 +100000
Cole Whitt #35 +100000
Josh Wise #98 +100000
Alex Bowman #7 +100000
David Gilliland #38 +100000
Matt Dibenedetto #83 +100000
Brendan Gaughan #62 +100000
Michael Annett #46 +100000