2013 Crown Royal Presents the Samuel Deeds 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : If you look at the list of Cup Series winners at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the numbers say that a surprise winner isn’t likely. After all, 15 of the 19 races at the track have been won by drivers that have also won a series championship. However, the trend of big names dominating the event has wavered slightly in recent years, and two of the four non-champions to win at the Brickyard have done so in the last three years. Whether the underdogs kissing the bricks is a passing fad or sign of things to come remains to be seen, but in the meantime, bettors have more reason than ever to gamble on an upset at Indianapolis. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few drivers that might just pull off a surprise win Sunday.
As I mentioned in the introduction, a couple of surprise drivers have broken through at Indianapolis in recent years. One of those drivers was Jamie McMurray, who pulled off a huge upset at the track in 2010. Considering he has more or less underperformed throughout his career, it would be easy to dismiss his victory as a fluke. However, McMurray has actually posted several strong finishes at the Brickyard. In fact, he has finished sixth or better at the track three in the last five years and has finished seventh or better five times in his career. Plain and simple, McMurray runs well at Indianapolis, and at his current 33/1 odds, bettors may want to take a chance that his love for the track leads to another win this weekend.
Whether it is the Daytona 500, the series championship or the Brickyard 400, the sport’s biggest prizes have always seemed to elude Mark Martin. However, the veteran has been consistently putting himself into position to win at Indianapolis for almost a decade. Martin has reeled off eight straight finishes of 11th or better at the famed track, finishing as high as second as recently as 2009. During the stretch, only two-time Indianapolis winner Tony Stewart has posted a better average finish and scored more points. Granted, he hasn’t won a Cup race since 2009, but Indianapolis has been one of his best tracks in recent years, and he has been one of the two best drivers at the track. At his 33/1 odds, he could be a steal.
In 2011, Paul Menard stretched his fuel tank to the last drop to steal himself a win at Indianapolis. The victory remains the only Cup win of his career to date, and while it certainly came via pit strategy rather than overall speed, Menard has consistently finished around the top 10 at the track in recent years. He has finished 14th or better at the Brickyard in each of the last three seasons, and as long as he can hang on the lead lap and somewhat near the front, Menard has a chance to use the same pit strategy that won in 2011 to steal another win. A lot of pieces have to fall into place, but bettors aren’t going to find another driver getting 50/1 odds that has a win at Indianapolis under their belt.
Bettors looking for a serious longshot this weekend may want to take a chance on Austin Dillon. Sure he is inexperienced, but his talent behind the wheel is evident by his lead in the Nationwide Series standings. Not to mention the fact that Dillon has already had some success at the Cup level, finishing as high as 11th this season. He has more than enough talent to hang around the top 15 this weekend, and with absolutely nothing to lose, Dillon won’t hesitate to use pit strategy if the opportunity arises. At his 150/1 odds, even a small investment can yield a huge payout.
Odds to win the Nascar Crown Royal 400
101 Jimmie Johnson +300
102 Kyle Busch +1100
103 Kasey Kahne +600
104 Matt Kenseth +900
105 Jeff Gordon +1100
106 Denny Hamlin +1100
107 Greg Biffle +4000
108 Carl Edwards +1500
109 Brad Keselowski +2000
110 Tony Stewart +900
111 Clint Bowyer +4000
112 Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000
113 Martin Truex Jr +6000
114 Kevin Harvick +2500
115 Kurt Busch +1200
116 Mark Martin +6000
117 Joey Logano +2500
118 Juan Montoya +1200
119 Jamie McMurray +6000
120 Field +1800
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