2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Favorites and Sleepers to Win at Talladega Superspeedway: If you love gambling on upsets and betting on underdogs, then Talladega Superspeedway is probably one of your favorite tracks. The restrictor plates used at the track keeps the field bunched in a giant pack, leading to some of the biggest wrecks in the series. As a result, any driver left standing after the carnage has unfolded has a shot at getting to Victory Lane. Unlike most weeks when the big name drivers for power teams have a huge advantage, the playing field is much more even at Talladega.
Last fall, Tony Stewart led a race-high 30 laps but found himself in an unenviable situation on the final restart. His drafting partner for most of the day had been Paul Menard, who lined up behind him on the restart. However, Menard’s Richard Childress Racing teammates Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer were lined up nose to tail on the inside line. Taking one for the team, Menard opted not to push Stewart on the restart, allowing Burton and Bowyer to pull away from the field. The two would amass an insurmountable lead and settle the race between them with Bowyer emerging as the winner.
Earlier this year, it appeared Roush Fenway Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle were going to be able to team up to win the race. In Fact, Kenseth led a race-high 73 laps, and he was out front with Biffle on his back bumper in the closing laps. However, a hard charge from Stewart was stopped when a multi-car wreck was triggered, setting up one last restart. Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch took advantage, and the two got hooked up and drove past Kenseth and Biffle on the final lap. Keselowski would get the victory, and Busch would finished second.
The Favorites – 2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
In seven career starts at Talladega, Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 five times and has compiled a series-leading 13.0 average finish. More importantly, he is a two-time winner at the track, and one of those wins came earlier this season. The fact that he has won two of the last three races leading up to Sunday’s event is just icing on the cake as he goes for a season sweep at Talladega.
At a track where staying out of trouble is very difficult, Clint Bowyer has been the model of consistency. He has finished in the top 12 in nine of his last 10 starts at Talladega, including six straight. In fact, he has finished seventh or better in his last five Talladega starts, and he has won the fall race at the track in each of the last two seasons. Bowyer will try for the fall race three-peat this weekend, and he should be in position to pull it off.
The Dark Horses – 2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
Although his last two starts at Talladega haven’t gone well, Kevin Harvick is still one of the best plate racers in the series. Actually, he has been the best in the series over the past 10 races, scoring 66 more points than the next-closest driver. Five of the races during that span have come at Talladega, and Harvick has three top-five finishes, including a win in those starts. Plain and simple, he knows how to get the front when it matters.
Prior to 2012, Greg Biffle had been good at the plate tracks, but he had never been an elite driver. Well, he is trying to change that perception this season. Biffle finished third in the Daytona 500, fifth at Talladega in May, and he was running second on the final lap at Daytona in July before being wrecked. He has had dominant cars at the first three restrictor-plate races this year, and there is no reason to expect that to change Sunday. All he has to do is seal the deal and score the win.
Sleeper Specials – 2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
His 2011 Daytona 500 victory is by far his most memorable performance at a plate track, but Trevor Bayne has actually been more consistent at Talladega. He finished in the top 15 at the track last fall and cracked the top 10 earlier this year. With two solid showings in his three starts at the track, Bayne has to be considered one of the up-and-coming plate track stars in the Cup Series. Not to mention that he has already shown he can pull off an upset.
He has one plate track win under his belt in his Cup Series career, and David Ragan didn’t sacrifice much in the way of performance at Talladega earlier this year despite driving for Front Row Motorsports. Ragan finished seventh at the track in May, and given his history of success at plate tracks, there is no reason he can’t run up front again Sunday. As unpredictable as the finishes at Talladega tend to be, any driver running in the top 10 on the final lap has a shot.
Big Name to Avoid – 2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
In the summer of 2009, Ryan Newman nearly won at Talladega, eventually settling for third after being passed on the final lap. Since then, he has been terrible at the track. He has finished 23rd or worse in his last six starts at Talladega, finishing 35th or worse four times during the stretch. At this point, keeping his car in one piece would be a victory for Newman.
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2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500 Odds – October 7th.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Good Sam’s Roadside Assistance 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Matt Kenseth 10-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Jimmie Johnson 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Clint Bowyer 14-1
Jeff Gordon 14-1
Denny Hamlin 14-1
Kasey Kahne 14-1
Tony Stewart 16-1
Greg Biffle 18-1
Carl Edwards 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Jeff Burton 25-1
Jamie McMurray 30-1
Ryan Newman 30-1
Juan Pablo Montoya 35-1
Michael Waltrip 40-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Marcos Ambrose 50-1
Trevor Bayne 55-1
Sam Hornish Jr. 55-1
Field (All Others) 75-1
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