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2011 Subway Fresh Fit 500 Breakdown – Beating the Odds: Who to Bet On

The oddsmakers have it right. Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are the favorites to win this weekend’s Cup race at Phoenix. The question is which one of the favorites should you bet on this weekend? Carl Edwards is the most recent winner at the track and arguably the hottest driver in the series, and Hamlin led the most laps in the fall race that Edwards won. That being said, Johnson is the man to back this weekend.

He may not be the most recent winner, but he has won four of the last seven races at the track. If you add up the total wins at Phoenix for the other three favorites, you only get two. Johnson has reeled off nine straight top-five finishes at the track, and with the odds for all four being nearly equal, Johnson is hands down the smart pick among the top dogs.

If you are looking to gamble a bit, Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman are enticing options. All three share 20/1 odds, and all three have had success at the track in the past. Newman is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Kenseth is a former winner coming off top-seven finishes in both 2010 events. However, with the odds being equal, Martin is the money man.

Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Martin has been an absolute stud at the track. He won the April event at the track in 2009 and has finished fourth or better in three of his four starts. Martin flat out dominated in his victory in 2009, while Newman needed a bit of pit strategy to get the job done last season. I’ll take my chances with Martin turning in another dominant performance before gambling on Newman getting lucky again.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Tony Stewart (12/1) and Jeff Burton (22/1) are getting a little more credit than they deserve. While it may be true that both drivers have solid career numbers at Phoenix, both have struggled recently. Burton failed to crack the top-15 in both races last season, even though Richard Childress Racing had one of its most dominant seasons in recent memory. Stewart has failed to crack the top-15 in his last three starts at the track, and his lone win came way back in 1999. Throw Dale Earnhardt Jr. (35/1) into that group as well. He is a two-time winner at PIR, but he has gone 11 races without cracking the top-five. Gamblers are better off spending their money elsewhere this weekend.

Current Odds to Win the Subway Fresh Fit 500 at BoDog Sportsbook:


A.J. Allmendinger #43 50/1

Andy Lally #71 500/1

Bill Elliott #09 250/1

Bobby Labonte #47 150/1

Brad Keselowski #2 80/1

Brian Keselowski #92 250/1

Brian Vickers #83 50/1

Carl Edwards #99 13/2

Casey Mears #13 250/1

Clint Bowyer #33 20/1

Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 35/1

Dave Blaney #36 300/1

David Gilliland #34 500/1

David Ragan #6 100/1

David Reutimann #00 40/1

Denny Hamlin #11 11/2

Greg Biffle #16 18/1

J.J. Yeley #46 400/1

Jamie McMurray #1 22/1

Jeff Burton #31 22/1

Jeff Gordon #24 12/1

Jimmie Johnson #48 6/1

Joe Nemechek #87 500/1

Joey Logano #20 30/1

Juan Pablo Montoya #42 28/1

Kasey Kahne #4 50/1

Kevin Harvick #29 12/1

Kurt Busch #22 18/1

Kyle Busch #18 7/1

Landon Cassill #60 500/1

Marcos Ambrose #9 80/1

Mark Martin #5 20/1

Martin Truex Jr. #56 40/1

Matt Kenseth #17 20/1

Michael McDowell #66 500/1

Mike Bliss #64 500/1

Mike Skinner #32 500/1

Paul Menard #27 80/1

Regan Smith #78 200/1

Robby Gordon #7 300/1

Ryan Newman #39 20/1

Tony Raines #37 500/1

Tony Stewart #14 12/1

Travis Kvapil #38 400/1

Trevor Bayne #16 100/1

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