2011 Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs – How to Bet on the Good Sam RV Insurance 500: Pocono Raceway has one of the weirdest configurations of any track on the schedule, and that is just one of the factors that make the track ripe for an upset. Rain tends to get trapped in the mountains around the track, causing sudden showers that can stop a race at any point. Fuel mileage and pit strategy are always in play as well because of the massive 2.5-mile layout. Throw in the importance of clean air and track position, and two-tire and even fuel-only pit stops can end up deciding the outcome. The fastest car doesn’t always win at Pocono, and several drivers are capable of springing an upset.
Looking at the odds, Ryan Newman is one driver that stands out as a potential surprise winner. The payout would be very friendly at his current 28/1 odds to win at SBG Global, and bettors will be getting a driver that has shown on multiple occasions that he can hang near the front. Newman hasn’t finished worse than 18th in his last 12 starts at the track, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last six starts. He also had six career top-five finishes, including a trip to Victory Lane.
While his numbers at Pocono alone make him a legitimate threat, his flat track numbers since joining Stewart-Haas Racing are even more encouraging. He has a 10.7 average finish at flat tracks like Pocono since the start of 2009, which ranks fourth in the series. The three drivers ahead of him have combined to win 11 series titles. Newman also has a pair of flat track wins during the stretch, including a victory at New Hampshire this season. He could be a steal for bettors this weekend.
Another driver that is more than capable of overachieving this weekend is Juan Pablo Montoya. His current 30/1 odds to win seem a bit ridiculous for a driver that has posted an 8.2 average finish in his last five starts at Pocono. Montoya has four top-10 finishes during the stretch, including a second-place effort. More importantly, he has led multiple laps in several of his starts at the track. In fact, he would probably have a win or two at Pocono already if not for some pit roads problems.
As an experienced road racer, performing well at flat tracks is not a major surprise for Montoya. The tight, sweeping corners mirror the turns seen at road courses, and he has already won at both road courses on the Cup Series schedule. He has also led significant laps at New Hampshire, Phoenix, Martinsville, Indianapolis and Pocono. If Montoya is going to win at an oval track in his career, it is likely going to happen at a flat track. He has a golden opportunity to deliver this weekend.
View the most current 2011 Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Odds for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500 this Sunday, August 7th at Pocono Raceway.
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