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Categorized | NASCAR

2011 Auto Club 400 Breakdown – Beating the Odds: Who to Bet On

2011 Auto Club 400 Betting Odds Breakdown – Who to Bet On and How to Win Money on NASCAR Betting this week: Four races into the 2011, the Cup Series has seen four different drivers win races. In other words, no one driver has a stranglehold on Victory Lane. For NASCAR, the parity means more storylines and higher ratings. For bettors, the parity means picking the winner becomes even harder than it already is. There is a good chance the streak of different winners could continues this at Auto Club Speedway, but fortunately, some of the drivers getting favorable odds also have stellar records at the track.

The Richard Childress Racing drivers have had their issues this season, but there is still no reason that Clint Bowyer should have 25/1 odds to win this Sunday. He has three straight top-10 finishes in Fontana, including a second-place finish last fall. If it weren’t for a late caution in that race, Bowyer would have won going away. He is on the doorstep of a win at ACS, and bettors should jump on board.

He has three wins at Auto Club Speedway, but you wouldn’t know it by the 18/1 odds Matt Kenseth is getting this weekend. His 10.7 average finish is the third best at the track during the past 10 years, and he has finished seventh or better in nine of his last 11 starts. As well as the Ford drivers have been running this season and as well as Kenseth has performed at ACS, he is a steal at his current odds.

At 30/1 odds, Kasey Kahne offers bettors a very favorable payout for being a former winner at ACS. He has finished in the top-15 in 10 of his 15 starts at the track, including a fourth-place effort last fall. Kahne has quietly had a solid season with Red Bull Racing and appears capable of contending for wins. He should be in the mix this weekend.

One driver that bettors may want to think twice about at his current 8/1 odds is Kyle Busch. There is no questioning his ability to win races, but he has finished outside the top-10 in his last three starts at the track. Busch’s strong start to the season has him among the pre-race favorites, but his recent performances at Fontana leave a lot to be desired.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is a bit of a reach at his current 10/1 odds. He has just one top-five finish in nine starts at the track, and he is nowhere near championship form yet, although he continues to receive the odds of a title contenders. Hamlin has always been the type of driver to get better as the year goes on, and bettors will want to wait a few more weeks before consistently putting money on him.

He has been running better than he has in several years, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. is still a liability to bettors this weekend, even at his 28/1 odds. With a career 22.6 average finish, ACS is one of his worst tracks. He has five straight finishes outside the top-10, and four of those finishes have been outside the top-25. With those numbers, Junior is a longshot to record a top-15 finish, let alone a win.

Bettors looking for a big payoff Sunday should consider Paul Menard. He is getting 60/1 odds to win, and his 26.5 average finish in eight starts at ACS isn’t exactly inviting. However, there is no denying the fact that he is having the best year of his career and currently sits in the top-five in points. Menard has recorded career-best finishes all four tracks the series has visited thus far, and there are no signs of him slowing down anytime soon.  

Check out NSAwins.com’s expert handicappers’ 2011 Auto Club 400 Predictions on who will win the race this weekend.

Driver/Odds
Jimmie Johnson +300
Carl Edwards +600
Kyle Busch +800
Jeff Gordon +900
Tony Stewart +1000
Denny Hamlin +1000
Kevin Harvick +1200
Kurt Busch +1600
Greg Biffle +1800
Matt Kenseth +2000
Clint Bowyer +2500
Mark Martin +2500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2500
Jeff Burton +3000
Kasey Kahne +3000
Juan Montoya +3000
Jamie McMurray +3500
Ryan Newman +3500
Joey Logano +3500
David Reutimann +3500
Brian Vickers +4000
Martin Truex Jr +5000
Field +2500

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