Top 5 National League Cy Young Candidates – 2011 NL Cy Young Predictions and Contenders: Thanks to the lack of a designated hitter, the National League has always been a little more pitcher friendly than its AL counterpart. The 2011 season has been no exception, and there are a number of pitchers flirting with ERAs below 3.00. As a result it takes some pretty impressive stats to get into the Cy Young conversation, but it is also a testament to the dominance of the pitchers that are candidates after the first half of the year.
1. Roy Halladay, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
The workhorse of the star-studded Philadelphia rotation is tied for the major league lead with 11 wins and six complete games. His 2.44 ERA is the third best in the National League, and his 1.03 WHIP is second best. Halladay has fanned the second-most batters in the NL as well, punching out 131 batters thus far. Perhaps most impressively, he has pitched 136.1 innings – 14 more than his closest competitor.
The Phillies have a below average offense, and they are currently on their fourth closer of the year. Halladay’s ability to go the deep in games whenever he steps on the mound has been invaluable for a club with the best record in baseball. He just isn’t eating innings either. Halladay has been putting up elite numbers since the start of the year, and he deserves to be considered the frontrunner for Cy Young honors.
2. Cole Hamels, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
The former World Series MVP has been on his game all season, and he is putting himself in position to win some more hardware. He has a 9-4 record in 2011, and his 2.41 ERA is the second best in the National League. Hamels has also compiled the top WHIP in the NL (0.94) and owns the third-best opponent batting average (.210). He has thrown the fifth-most innings thus far, and his 116 strikeouts rank sixth best.
Hamels certainly has the numbers to take home Cy Young honors, but his own teammate is probably going to leave him on the outside looking in. Unless Hamels can pass Roy Halladay in wins, his ERA and WHIP numbers aren’t going to be enough to overcome the substantial difference in innings pitched between the two Philadelphia aces. Halladay is on pace to throw 30-40 more innings than Hamels, and that will influence voters.
3. Jair Jurrjens, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves
After starting the season on the disabled list, Jurrjens has more than made up for lost time. He is tied for the National League lead with 11 victories, and his 1.89 ERA is tops in all of baseball. His 1.06 WHIP is third best. Missing time at the start of the year has left him outside the top 10 in terms of innings pitched, but Jurrjens does rank in the top 10 when it comes to opponent batting average.
Outside of missing time, the only other things working against Jurrjens is his low strikeout total. He has just 63 in 104.2 innings in 2011, but he has never been a power pitcher that piles up strikeouts. That being said, voters look at every aspect when picking a Cy Young winner. Jurrjens will be in the mix as long as his win totals and ERA are at or near the top, but those numbers alone might not be enough to get him over the hump.
4. Cliff Lee, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
Lee has been next to unhittable lately, but his body of work as a whole is the reason he belongs in the Cy Young conversation. Sitting at 9-5, he ranks in the top 10 in the National League with a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average. Although not known as a strikeout guy, Lee currently sits fourth in the NL with119. He has also thrown a major league best four complete game shutouts.
He could definitely move up the list during the remainder of the year. His ERA reached 3.94 on May 31, but he dropped it more than a run in less than a month after giving up just a single run in his last 42 innings. Lee’s numbers will only get better if he keeps up his current pace, and he could end up being the main competition for his teammate Roy Halladay.
5. Tommy Hanson, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves
The young Atlanta starter is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the elite arms in the game. He is 9-4 in 2011, and his 2.62 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are both fourth best in the National League. Not to mention the fact that his .193 opponent batting average is tops in the NL. His 97 strikeouts would seem to be off the pace of some of the other frontrunners, but he has put up that total in just 89.2 innings.
A minor injury that cost him some time earlier this year could ultimately be the reason he misses out on Cy Young honors this season. Voters will overlook his strikeout total because of his incredible K’s per nine innings ratio, but the low inning total itself is a problem. Hanson doesn’t go deep into games, and he has yet to throw a complete game in 2011. Until he learns to manage his pitch count a bit better, he is going to have to wait on some hardware.
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